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MS75010 MSI DOMICILIARY CARE FOR THE ELDERLY : UK - DECEMBER 2001

Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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1	KEY FINDINGS
2	INTRODUCTION
2.1	Definitions
2.2	Methodology
2.3	UK Economic Background
2.3.1	Overview
2.3.2	Interest Rates
2.3.3	Inflation
2.3.4	Household Income And Expenditure
2.3.5	Services And Manufacturing Output
2.3.6	The Budget 2001
2.3.7	Forecasts
2.4	Exchange Rates
2.5	Abbreviations
3	REGULATIONS
3.1	Introduction
3.2	The Care Standards Act 2000
3.3	Regulation Of Care Bill (Scotland)
3.4	Northern Ireland
3.5	The Minimum Wage Directive
3.6	The Working Time Directive
4	MARKET OVERVIEW
4.1	Market Size And Trends, 1997-2001
4.2	Market Segmentation
4.3	Regional Analysis
4.3.1	England
4.3.2	Scotland
4.3.3	Wales
4.3.4	Northern Ireland
4.4	Factors Affecting Expenditure
4.5	Forecast Segmentation, 2002-2006
5	CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS
6	OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUPPLIERS
7	PURCHASING STRATEGIES
8	INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
8.1	Overview
8.2	Company Profiles
8.2.1	The Abbeyfield Society
8.2.2	Anchor Trust
8.2.3	The British United Provident Association (BUPA) Care Services Division
8.2.4	Care UK
8.2.5	Healthcall Group
8.2.6	London Care
8.2.7	Nestor Healthcare Group
9	MAGAZINES
10	TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

LIST OF TABLES

1. Economic Indicators On The UK Economy, 1996-2003

2. UK Expenditure On Domiciliary Care For The Elderly, 1997-2001

3. UK Population By Age Group, 1931-2020

4. Number Of Nurses On The UKCC Register, 1991-2000

5. Home Care Hours Provided Or Funded By Local Authorities By Country, 2000

6. UK Expenditure On Domiciliary Care for the Elderly, By Type Of Care, 1997-2001

7. Gross Local Authority Expenditure On Domiciliary Care For The Elderly In England, By Type Of Care, 1999 And 2000

8. Number Of Contact Hours Of Home Care Purchased Or Provided By Local Authorities In England, By Type Of Provider, 1996-2000

9. Average Number Of Contact Hours Of Home Care/Help Provided Or Purchased By Local Authorities In England, By Type Of Provider, 1996-2000

10. Number Employed In The Home Care Industry In England, By Sector, 2000

11. Local Authority Expenditure On Community Care Services In Scotland, By Type Of Service, 1996-2000

12. Number Of Home Care Clients In Scotland, By Type Of Provider, 1998-2000

13. Number Of Home Care Clients And Hours Provided And Purchased By Local Authorities In Scotland, 1998-2000

14. Number Of Home Care Hours Purchased By Local Authorities In Scotland Per Client, By Type of Provider, 1999 And 2000

15. Home Care Clients In Scotland, By Duration Of Service Received, 1999 And 2000

16. Local Authority Expenditure On Domiciliary Care For The Elderly In Wales, By Type Of Service, 2000

17. Number Of Contact Hours Of Home Care Provided By Local Authorities In Wales, By Type of Provider, 1999 And 2000

18. Number Of Day Care Sessions Provided Or Purchased By Local Authorities In Wales, By Type of Provider, 1999 And 2000

19. Number Of Meals Purchased By Local Authorities In Wales For the Elderly, By Type of Provider, 1999 And 2000

20. Total Number Of Home Care Clients In Northern Ireland Aged 65 And Over, 1999 And 2000

21. Total Number Of Domiciliary Care Packages Provided To Clients In Northern Ireland Aged 65 Years And Over, 1999 And 2000

22. Number Of Meals On Wheels Provided In Northern Ireland To Clients Aged 65 And Over, 1999 And 2000

23. Forecast UK Expenditure On Domiciliary Care For the Elderly, 2002-2006

24. Forecast UK Expenditure On Domiciliary Care For The Elderly, By Type Of Care, 2002-2006

25. Financial Summary Of The Abbeyfield Society 1996-2000

26. Financial Summary Of Anchor Trust, 1997-2001

27. Financial Summary Of The British United Provident Association (BUPA), 1996-2000

28. Trading Income Of The British United Provident Association’s Care Services Division, 1996-2000

29. Financial Summary Of Care UK, 1996-2000

30. Financial Summary Of Healthcall Group, 1996-2000

31. Financial Summary Of London Care, 1996-2001

32. Financial Summary Of Nestor Healthcare Group, 1996-2000

LIST OF DIAGRAMS
1. The UK Market For Domiciliary Care For The Elderly, 1997-2006	7

KEY FINDINGS

MSI believe that the total UK market for domiciliary care for the elderly amounted to some £2.3 billion (€3.7 billion) in the year to March 2001, an increase of 5 percent compared with the year to March 2000
· Throughout the review period, the largest proportion of expenditure by both local authorities and private individuals was on home care. MSI expect that home care will continue to account for the highest rates of expenditure throughout the forecast period
· Factors affecting demand for domiciliary care in the UK have been identified as government policies, which have promoted independence amongst the elderly, the increase in the ageing of the UK population, the development of innovative aids and adaptations, and the preference of the elderly to remain in their own homes, as opposed to entering into a nursing or residential home
The forthcoming Care Standards Act expected to be introduced in April 2002 will bring about the most significant changes within the domiciliary care market since the Community Care Act of 1993. For the first time, all domiciliary care agencies will be registered and subject to inspections by the Care Standards Commission. Those which do not meet the required standards will be granted a time budget to do so. The ultimate penalty for non-compliance with the Act will be de-registration. The Act will serve to raise standards of domiciliary care provision through rigorous training procedures for carers, however, it is expected this will result in increased overheads for domiciliary care providers
During the forecast period total expenditure on domiciliary care for the elderly in the UK will increase by 18 percent. Expenditure by local authorities will continue to account for the largest proportion of the market. However, the number of services funded by local authorities and outsourced to independent providers will continue to increase
The following diagram illustrates MSI's estimates and forecasts of the increasing value of the UK market for domiciliary care for the elderly

Unit £ million

Notes:

* = estimate

** = forecasts

Year end is March

Source: MSI analysis of DoH, Scottish Executive, Welsh Assembly and DHSS(NI) data, trade and MSI estimate and forecasts

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