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MS60008 MSI EXPRESS DELIVERY SERVICES: UK: FEBRUARY 1998

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION
Methodology
The UK Economy
Overview
Political Climate
Interest Rates
Inflation
Exchange Rates
Taxation
Consumer Demand
Output
Investment
Forecasts
Exchange Rates
Abbreviations
MARKET SIZE
Market Overview and Trends, 1993-1997
Market Segmentation, 1993-1997
Overview
Internal Deliveries
Overview
By Time Sensitivity
By User Type
By Transport Method
International Deliveries
Overview
By Destination
By Transport Method
Factors Affecting Demand
Forecast Market Overview, 1998-2002
Forecast Market Segmentation, 1998-2002
Overview
Internal Deliveries
Overview
By Time Sensitivity
International Deliveries
MARKET SHARES
Internal Deliveries
International Deliveries
CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS
CUSTOMER PROFILE
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
Overview
Company Profiles
Amtrak Express Parcels
ANC
Business Post Group
DHL International (UK)
Interlink Express Parcels
Lynx Express
Nightfreight
Parcelforce Worldwide
Parceline
Securicor Group
TNT Express (UK)
Tuffnells Parcels Express
United Carriers
UPS
TRADE ASSOCIATIONS
MAGAZINES
List of Tables
1 Economic Indicators On The UK Economy, 1989-1998
2 The UK Market For Express Delivery Services, 1988-1997
3 The UK Market For Express Delivery Services, By Type, 1988-1997
4 The UK Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, 1988-1997
5 The UK Volume Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, By Time Sensitivity, 1993-1997
6 Proportional Importance Of The UK Volume Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, By Time Sensitivity, 1993-1997
7 The UK Value Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, By Time Sensitivity, 1993-1997
8 Proportional Importance Of The UK Value Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, By Time Sensitivity, 1993-1997
9 The UK Volume Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, By Type Of User, 1995-1997
10 The UK Volume Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, By Transport Method, 1997
11 The UK Market For International Express Delivery Services, 1988-1997
12 Growth In The International Economies, By Geographical Region, 1989-1998
13 The UK Value Market For International Express Delivery Services, By Destination, 1993-1997
14 Proportional Importance Of The UK Value Market For International Express Delivery Services, By Destination, 1993-1997
15 The percentage Of Volume Of International Deliveries, By Transport Type, By Destination, 1997
16 Forecast UK Market For Express Delivery Services, 1998-2002
17 Forecast UK Market For Express Delivery Services, By Destination, 1998-2002
18 Forecast UK Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, 1998-2002
19 Forecast UK Volume Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, By Time Sensitivity, 1998-2002
20 Forecast UK Value Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, By Time Sensitivity, 1998-2002
21 Forecast UK Market For International Express Delivery Services, 1998-2002
22 Market Shares In The UK Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, 1997
23 Market Shares In The UK Market For International Express Delivery Services, 1997
24 Expenditure On Advertising In The UK Courier And Express Delivery Markets, By Brand, 1994-1997
25 The UK Express Delivery Market, By User And Receiver, 1997
26 Industry Concentration In The UK Internal Express Delivery Services Market, 1997
27 Financial Summary Of Amtrak Express Parcels, 1992-1996
28 Financial Summary Of ANC, 1992-1996
29 Financial Summary Of Business Post Group, 1993-1997
30 Financial Summary of DHL International (UK), 1992-1996
31 Financial Summary Of Interlink Express Parcels, 1993-1997
32 Financial Summary Of Lynx Express Delivery Network, 1992-1995
33 Financial Summary Of Nightfreight, 1993-1996
34 Financial Summary Of Parcelforce Worldwide, 1993-1997
35 Financial Summary Of Mayne Nickless Time Critical Express Division, 1995-1997
36 Financial Summary Of Securicor Group's Distribution Division, 1992-1996
37 Financial Summary Of TNT Express (UK), 1992-1996
38 Financial Summary Of Tuffnells Parcels Express, 1992-1996
39 Financial Summary Of United Carriers Group, 1994-1996
40 Financial Summary Of UPS, 1992-1996
List of Diagrams
1 The Proportional Importance Of The UK Volume Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, By Type Of User, 1997
2 The UK Volume Market For Express Delivery Services, By Destination, 1993-2002

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The UK express delivery services market is estimated to have delivered 681 million packages in 1997, representing an increase of 10 percent from the volume of consignments transported in 1996. The UK express delivery services market in value terms has grown less significantly as a result of the continued price discounting by many express delivery service providers. MSI estimate that the market increased by 7 percent in 1997 to œ2.2 billion (ECU3.2 billion).

Internal deliveries in the UK express delivery services market are estimated to have accounted for 95 percent of the volume of packages in 1997. MSI estimate that next day deliveries accounted for 315 million packages in the market. Indeed, demand for next day deliveries has increased in volume terms by 44 percent between 1993 and 1997. Other guaranteed deliveries rose by 13 percent whilst the size of the non-guaranteed services sector contracted by 2 percent between 1993 and 1997.

The UK market for international deliveries continued to grow in both volume and value terms. In 1997 the volume of packages for international destinations increased by 12 percent with a significant proportion of this growth accounted for by deliveries to non-European countries. Indeed the proportion of the market volume accounted for by non-European deliveries had risen to 31 percent in 1997.

MSI believe that demand for express delivery services is affected by a number of factors including:

- end user performance
- UK and international economic factors
- the trend towards globalisation
- political changes
- government policy
- the pricing of express delivery services
- customer perception of added value services
- social trends
- trends in distribution and production

The UK market for express delivery services is forecast to continue growing in both volume and value terms between 1998 and 2002. In the internal sector, MSI forecast that the growth rates of the value market will become increasingly in line with those forecast in the volume market reflecting the trend towards price stability in the market. In contrast, as the international market becomes further characterised by competition and reaches a level of maturity, prices in the sector are expected to decline.

MSI have identified a number of factors which are considered to be critical for the success of express delivery companies. The following factors are of particular importance due to their role in the decision making criteria of customers:

- price
- geographical coverage
- range of services
- speed and timing of delivery
- quality of service
- reliability
- customer care

During the 1990s the UK express delivery services industry for internal deliveries has become more concentrated with many smaller companies being forced out of the market as a result of the UK economic recession. Indeed, the leading 14 companies accounted for 93 percent of the total market value in 1997. The international sector continues to be led by four companies. However, many UK companies are penetrating the international express delivery services market which is serving to reduce concentration in the sector.

Text © 1998 MSI

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