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MS60000 MSI EXPRESS DELIVERY SERVICES: UK: JANUARY 2000

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION Definitions Methodology

UK Economy Political Climate Interest Rates Inflation Exchange Rates Taxation

Household Income and Consumer Expenditure Manufacturing Output

Services

Investment

Forecasts

Exchange Rates

Abbreviations

MARKET SIZE

Market Size and Trends, 1990-1999

Market Segmentation

Overview

Internal Deliveries

Overview

By Time Sensitivity

By User Type

By Mode of Transport

Revenue Per Parcel

International Deliveries

Overview

By Destination

By Mode of Transport

Revenue Per Parcel

Factors Affecting Demand

Forecast Market Overview, 2000-2004 Forecast Market Segmentation, 2000-2004 Overview

Internal Deliveries

Overview

By Time Sensitivity

International Deliveries

MARKET SHARES

Internal Deliveries

International Deliveries

CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS

CUSTOMER PROFILE

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

Overview

Company Profiles

Amtrak Express Parcels

Overview

Business Profile

ANC

Overview

Business Profile

Business Post Group

Overview

Business Profile

DHL International (UK)

Overview

Business Profile

Federal Express

Overview

Business Profile

Hays DX

Overview

Business Profile

Interlink Express Parcels

Overview

Business Profile

LYNX Express

Overview

Business Profile

Nightfreight

Overview

Business Profile

Nightspeed Services

Overview

Business Profile

Parcelforce Worldwide

Overview

Business Profile

Parceline

Overview

Business Profile

New Securicor Group

Overview

Business Profile

Target Worldwide Express

Overview

Business Profile

TNT UK

Overview

Business Profile

Tuffnells Parcels Express

Overview

Business Profile

United Carriers

Overview

Business Profile

UPS

Overview

Business Profile

White Arrow Express

Overview

Business Profile

TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

MAGAZINES

LIST OF TABLES

1. Economic Indicators On The UK Economy, 1992-2000

2. The UK Market For Express Delivery Services, 1990-1999 3. The UK Market For Express Delivery Services, By Type, 1990-1999

4. The UK Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, 1990-1999

5. The UK Volume Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, By Time Sensitivity, 1995-1999

6. Proportional Segmentation Of The UK Volume Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, By Time Sensitivity, 1995-1999

7. The UK Value Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, By Time Sensitivity, 1995-1999

8. Proportional Segmentation Of The UK Value Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, By Time Sensitivity, 1995-1999

9. The UK Volume Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, By Type Of User, 1995-1999

10. The UK Volume Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, By Mode Of Transport, 1999

11. Revenue Per Parcel In The UK Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, 1990-1999

12. The UK Market For International Express Delivery Services, 1990-1999

13. Growth In Selected International Economies, By Geographical Region, 1993-1999

14. The UK Value Market For International Express Delivery Services, By Destination, 1995-1999

15. Proportional Segmentation Of The UK Value Market For International Express Delivery Services, By Destination, 1995-1999

16. Proportional Segmentation Of The UK Volume Market For International Deliveries, By Mode Of Transport And By Destination, 1999

17. Revenue Per Parcel In The UK Market For International Express Delivery Services, 1990-1999

18. Forecast UK Market For Express Delivery Services, 2000-2004

19. Forecast UK Market For Express Delivery Services, By Type, 2000-2004

20. Forecast UK Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, 2000-2004

21. Forecast Volume Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, By Time Sensitivity, 2000-2004

22. Forecast UK Value Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, By Time Sensitivity, 2000-2004

23. Forecast UK Market For International Express Delivery Services, 2000-2004

24. Market Shares In The UK Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, 1999

25. Market Shares In The UK Market For International Express Delivery Services, 1999

26. Expenditure On Advertising In The UK Courier And Express Delivery Markets By Selected Companies, By Company, 1995-1999 27. The UK Express Delivery Market, By User And Receiver, 1999 28. Industry Concentration In The UK Internal Express Delivery Services Market, 1999

29. Financial Summary Of Amtrak Express Parcels, 1994-1998

30. Financial Summary Of ANC, 1994-1998

31. Financial Summary Of Business Post Group, 1995-1999

32. Financial Summary Of DHL International (UK), 1994-1998

33. Financial Summary Of Federal Express' International Division, 1995-1998

34. Financial Summary Of Hays, 1995-1999

35. Financial Summary Of Interlink Express Parcels, 1994-1998 36. Financial Summary Of LYNX Express, 1997 And 1998

37. Financial Summary Of Nightfreight, 1995-1998

38. Financial Summary Of Nightspeed Services, 1994-1998

39. Financial Summary Of Parcelforce Worldwide, 1995-1999

40. Financial Summary Of Mayne Nickless Time Critical Express Division, 1995-1999

41. Financial Summary Of Securicor Group's Distribution Division, 1994-1998

42. Financial Summary Of Target Worldwide Express, 1994-1999 43. Financial Summary Of TNT UK, 1997 And 1998

44. Financial Summary Of Tuffnells Parcels Express, 1994-1998 45. Financial Summary Of United Carriers Group, 1994-1998

46. Financial Summary Of UPS, 1994-1998

47. Financial Summary Of White Arrow Express Parcel Distribution Division, 1993-1997

LIST OF DIAGRAMS

1. Proportional Segmentation Of The UK Volume Market For Internal Express Delivery Services, By Type Of User, 1999

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

MSI believe that the total UK volume market for express delivery services increased by some 4 percent to reach 728 packages during 1999. Moreover, the market grew by some 5 percent in value terms during the same year, reaching a value of ?2.43 billion (euro3.77 billion). The stronger increase in value than in volume terms is attributable to the trend towards higher value deliveries such as international express deliveries for example.

The internal market for express delivery services continued to account for the largest proportion of the total UK market in 1999. In volume terms, an increase of 3 percent was recorded in this sector in 1999 in comparison with 1998, to a volume of 680 packages. From this total, next day delivery services accounted for some 53 percent of packages while the demand for 48 hour and 24 hour delivery continued to decline during 1999. As a consequence, the demand for non-guaranteed services increased, to account for some 10 percent of the UK volume market for internal deliveries during the same year.

MSI believe that the UK market for internal deliveries increased only marginally in value during 1999. Growth, however, is believed to have been hindered by an increase in price competition, which has resulted in express delivery companies offering reduced tariffs. Indeed, the average revenue per parcel decreased by a further 2 percent in 1999.

The demand for international express delivery services continued to increase at a stronger rate than demand for internal deliveries throughout 1999. MSI believe that this is largely due to the maturity of the domestic market and the impact of globalisation. In volume terms, the market for international deliveries increased by some 19 percent compared with 1998, reaching a volume of 47.5 million packages. Moreover, MSI believe that the UK market for international deliveries increased by 13 percent in value terms during 1999. The principal destination for international deliveries from the UK continued to be Continental Europe during 1999. Indeed, deliveries from the UK to Continental Europe accounted for 73 percent of the total value market for international express deliveries in 1999.

Due to the nature of the express delivery market, the demand for express delivery services is determined by a number of factors. These include:

* stability of both the domestic and world economy

* globalisation

* exports

* international relations

* lifestyle trends and demographics

* cultural requirements

* distribution and production techniques

* business confidence

* innovation

The total UK market for express delivery services is forecast to continue growing in both volume and value terms between 2000 and 2004. MSI forecast that growth within the market will be due to the expansion of international services. Growth in the internal sector will be marginal due to the near saturation of the market. Despite initial growth in the international sector, MSI forecast a decline in growth rates mainly, in value terms, as prices are forecast to decline during the forecast period, in line with the increased intensity of competition.

MSI have identified a number of factors, which have continued to be critical to the success of express delivery service companies. These include:

* reliability

* price

* geographical coverage

* tracking and tracing services

* customer services

* training

* information technology

* accessibility

* speed

* flexibility

The UK express delivery industry is highly concentrated and led by only a small number of companies. However, trade sources report that, as a result of the liberalisation of the Post Office, the structure of the express delivery market will change over the next few years. Certainly in the European Union, the market will be dominated by a group known as the BIG 4, which comprises of the British, French, German and Dutch Post Offices.

Text © 2000MSI

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Last updated by Jacob van Eldik 20th February 2000