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MS55061 MSI CAFÉ BARS: UK: JUNE 2001

This report covers: Fat cat bars, inventive leisure, drinking, food, soft drinks,

Companies covered include: Bass Leisure Retail, Dudley Breweries, Luminar Leisure, Scottish & Newcastle, The Parisa Group, WhitbreadS.F.I., The Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries, J.D. Wetherspoon

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
2 INTRODUCTION 3
2.1 Definitions 3
2.2 Methodology 5
2.3 Economic Background 5
2.3.1 Overview 5
2.3.2 Interest Rates 6
2.3.3 Inflation 7
2.3.4 Household Income And Expenditure 7
2.3.5 Services And Manufacturing Output 8
2.3.6 Forecasts 8
2.4 Exchange Rates 9
2.5 Abbreviations 9
3 MARKET OVERVIEW 10
3.1 Market Size And Trends, 1996-2000 10
3.2 Market Segmentation 15
3.2.1 By Type Of Ownership 15
3.2.2 By Source Of Revenue 16
3.3 Factors Affecting Demand 18
3.4 Forecast Market Trends And Segmentation, 2001-2005 22
3.4.1 Overview 22
3.4.2 By Type Of Ownership 25
3.4.3 By Source Of Revenue 26
4 OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUPPLIERS 28
5 CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS 30
6 INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 34
6.1 Overview 34
6.2 Market Shares Of Leading Café Bar Operators 35
6.2.1 Company Profiles 36
6.2.1.1 Bass 36
6.2.1.2 Fat Cat Café Bars 37
6.2.1.3 Inventive Leisure 38
6.2.1.4 JD Wetherspoon 39
6.2.1.5 Luminar Leisure 41
6.2.1.6 Scottish & Newcastle 43
6.2.1.7 SFI Group (Surrey Free Inns) 46
6.2.1.8 The Parisa Group 47
6.2.1.9 The Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries 48
6.2.1.10 Whitbread 49
7 MAGAZINES 51
8 TRADE ASSOCIATIONS 53

LIST OF TABLES

1. Economic Indicators On The UK Economy, 1995-2002 6
2. The Value Of The UK Café Bars Market, 1996-2000 10
3. Number Of Café Bars In The UK, 1996-2000 11
4. Changes In Real Personal Disposable Income In The UK, 1996-2000 13
5. Household Expenditure On Eating Out In The UK, 1996-2000 13
6. UK Consumption Of Alcohol, 1995-1999 14
7. UK Household Final Consumption Expenditure On Alcoholic Drinks, 1995-1999 14
8. The UK Café Bars Market, By Type Of Ownership, 1996-2000 15
9. The UK Café Bars Market, By Source Of Revenue, 1996-2000 17
10. UK 'On' And 'Off' Channel Beer Sales, 1995-1999 20
11. Actual And Projected Population, By Age Group, 1998-2011 23
12. Forecast Value Of The UK Café Bars Market, 2001-2005 23
13. Forecast Number Of Café Bars In The UK, 2001-2005 24
14. Forecast UK Café Bar Market, By Type Of Ownership, 2001-2005 25
15. Forecast UK Café Bars Market, By Source Of Revenue, 2001-2005 26
16. Market Shares Of The Top Five Leading Café Bar Operators In The UK, 2000 35
17. Financial Summary Of Bass, 1996-2000 37
18. Financial Summary Of Fat Cat Café Bars, 1997-1999 38
19. Financial Summary Of Inventive Leisure, 1996-2000 39
20. Financial Summary Of JD Wetherspoon, 1996-2000 40
21. Financial Summary Of Luminar Leisure, 1997-2001 42
22. Scottish & Newcastle Estate, By Type Of Outlet, 2000 44
23. Financial Summary Of Scottish & Newcastle, 1996-2000 45
24. Financial Summary Of SFI Group, 1996-2000 47
25. Financial Summary Of The Parisa Group, 1997-1999 48
26. Financial Summary Of The Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries, 1996-2000 49
27. Financial Summary Of Whitbread, 1996-2000 50

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

MSI believe that the UK market value for café bars increased by a substantial 82 percent during the review period. Furthermore, the total value of the café bars market is estimated to have increased by a significant 23 percent during 2000 to reach £2.50 billion (€3.98 billion).

The increase in the value of the café bars market during the review period was accompanied by a yearly increase in the number of café bars throughout the UK. Indeed, MSI believe that the number of café bar sites increased by a significant 133 percent between 1996 and 2000 to reach 1 186 café bar sites.

MSI believe that the growth in the value and volume of the café bars market during the review period was largely attributable to the following factors:

Moreover, other factors affect the café bars market, notably substitute entertainment venues, government legislation and economic trends.

MSI forecast that the total value of the UK café bars market will increase further between 2001 and 2005. Indeed, during the forecast period the total value of the café bars market is expected to increase by a significant 57 percent in real terms. However, the rate of growth is forecast to start to slow by 2003 as the market moves closer to saturation and the industry becomes increasingly consolidated.

MSI believe that revenue for café bars was principally generated by alcoholic drinks during the review period. The second largest generator of revenue was believed to be food. Furthermore, the proportional importance of food sales increased steadily throughout the review period. This trend is expected to continue into the forecast period. By 2005 food is expected to account for 33 percent of the total revenue of café bars.

MSI believe that café bar ownership was split between pub operators, pub/bar operators, regional brewers, bar/restaurant operators, brewers and independents during the review period. It is believed that pub operators owned the largest proportion of café bars throughout the review period. The second most important owners of café bars were pub/bar operators which were estimated to own 17 percent of café bars during 2000.

There are a number of different factors that contribute to the success of a company in the UK café bars market. MSI believe that the most important factors are:

MSI believe that the UK café bars industry is becoming increasingly consolidated. There have been extensive disposals and acquisitions, particularly during 2000. This period of consolidation is offering plenty of opportunity for the larger café bar operators to add to their existing portfolio. Indeed, it is forecast that, in the long term, there will be fewer brands present on the high street. This is expected to lead to a smaller number of high turnover outlets in the future.

Text © 2001 MSI

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Last updated by Paul Tucker 20th September 2001