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Table of Contents

Executive Summary

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Definitions Methodology

The UK Economy Overview Political Climate Interest Rates Inflation Exchange Rates Taxation

Household Income and Consumer Expenditure Manufacturing Output

Services

Investment

Forecasts

Exchange Rates

Abbreviations

MARKET SIZE

Market Overview And Trends, 1995-1999 Industry Overview and Trends, 1995-1999 Market Segmentation

Type of Ownership

Type of Outlet

Source of Turnover

Factors Affecting Demand

Market Forecasts, 2000-2004

Forecast Market Overview

Forecast Industry Overview

Forecast Market Segmentation

Type of Outlet

Source Of Turnover

OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUPPLIERS

CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

Overview

Market Shares

Company Profiles

Bass

Enterprise Inns

The Greenalls Group

Greene King

Nomura International

Overview

Inntrepreneur Pub Company

Phoenix Inns

Unique Pub Company

Pubmaster Group

Punch Taverns

Overview

The Wellington Pub Company

Punch Taverns

Allied Domecq (now part of Punch Taverns) Scottish & Newcastle

Whitbread

The Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries MAGAZINES

TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

LIST OF TABLES

1. Economic Indicators On The UK Economy, 1992-2000

2. The UK Public House Market, 1995-1999

3. Total Consumer Expenditure On Alcoholic Drinks, 1994-1998 4. UK Consumption Of Alcohol, 1994-1998

5. Number of Trips Taken In The UK 1994-1998

6. Number Of Public houses In The UK, 1995-1999

7. The UK Public House Industry Concentration, By Type Of Owner, 1999

8. Brewery Owned Public Houses In The UK, By Type, 1995-1999 9. UK Public House Industry, By Type Of Ownership, 1999

10. UK Public Houses, By Type Of Outlet, 1995-1999

11. Source Of Turnover of Public Houses In The UK, By Income Sector, 1995-1999

12. Proportion Of Adults Consuming Over Selected Weekly levels Of Alcohol, By Age And Gender, 1998

13. Revenue Lost Through Cross-Channel Smuggling, By Product Type, 1996-1998

14. Forecast UK Public House Market, 2000-2004

15. Forecast UK Population Structure, 2000-2004

16. Forecast Number Of Public Houses In The UK, 2000-2004

17. Forecast Number of Public Houses, By Type Of Outlet, 2000-2004

18. Forecast Source Of Turnover Of Public Houses In The UK, By Income Sector, 2000-2004

19. Brewers' capital Expenditure On Public Houses, 1994-1998 20. Market Shares Of The Leading Pub Operators, 1999

21. Financial Summary Of Bass, 1994-1998

22. Financial Summary Of Bass, By Activity, 1997 And 1998

23. Financial Summary Of Enterprise Inns, 1994-1998

24. Financial Summary Of The Greenalls Group, 1994-1998

25. Financial Summary of The Greenalls Group, By activity, 1997 And 1998

26. Financial Summary Of Greene King, 1995-1999

27. Financial Summary Of Greene King, By Activity, 1998 And 1999

28. Financial Summary Of Nomura International, 1998 And 1999 29. Financial Summary Of The Inntrepreneur Pub Company, 1995-1997

30. Financial Summary Of Phoenix Inns, 1996-1998

31. Financial Summary Of Pubmaster Group, 1994-1998

32. Financial Summary Of Allied Domecq 1994-1998

33. Turnover Of Allied Domecq, By Activity, 1997 And 1998

34. Financial Summary Of Scottish & Newcastle, 1995-1999

35. Financial Summary of Scottish & Newcastle, By activity, 1998 And 1999

36. The Level Of Retail Capital Expenditure At Scottish & Newcastle, 1996-1999

37. Financial Summary Of Whitbread, 1995-1999

38. Financial Summary Of Whitbread, By Division, 1998 And 1999 39. Financial Summary Of Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries, 1994-1998

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The UK market for pubs increased by 18 percent between 1995 and 1998. Further growth of just 2 percent in real terms is projected for 1999, leading to a total market value of 23.2 billion (euro32.9 billion) at 1998 prices.

The number of pubs in the UK declined continuously between 1994 and 1998 to just 60 300, due to a high degree of acquisitional activity and consolidation by the leading pub operators in the industry.

Economic factors, including levels of consumer expenditure and disposable income, have a significant impact on the UK public house market. Other factors affecting the level of demand for public houses in the UK include trends in consumer consumption of alcohol, demographic trends, tourism, government legislation and competition from alternative leisure activities.

MSI estimate that food-led or destination pubs accounted for 46 percent of the total number of pubs in the UK in 1998. By 2004 the food-led sector is expected to represent as much as 52 percent of the total number of UK pubs. The number of wet-led public houses is slowly diminishing due to decreasing levels of alcohol consumption, drink-driving, health issues and emergence of food as an important sector.

Factors critical to the success of a pub include targeting the right market sector, providing an adequate range of food and alcoholic products, customer service, entertainment as well as facilities for children.

The proportional importance of turnover achieved through the sale of alcoholic drinks decreased significantly throughout the review period. Indeed, in 1999 the proportion of public houses' turnover accounted for by sales of alcoholic drinks amounted to 57 percent compared with 60 percent in 1995.

The UK market for public houses is forecast to continue to grow over the next five years, with growth rates in real terms remaining between 1 percent and 3 percent. However, MSI forecast that the number of pubs in the UK will continue to decline, although at a marginal yearly rate.

The 10 leading pub operators account for as much as 50 percent of the UK market, in terms of numbers of public houses. Independent trade accounts for the rest of the industry, with over 200 non-brewing chains representing around a third of all pubs in the UK.

Text © 1999 MSI

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