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MS55011
MSI PUBLIC HOUSES: UK: MARCH 2001
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Executive Summary 1
2 INTRODUCTION 3
2.1 Definitions 3
2.2 Methodology 4
2.3 UK Economy 4
2.3.1 Overview 4
2.3.2 Interest Rates 6
2.3.3 Inflation 7
2.3.4 Exchange Rates 7
2.3.5 Taxation 8
2.3.6 Household Income And Consumer Expenditure 9
2.3.7 Manufacturing Output 10
2.3.8 Services 11
2.3.9 Investment 11
2.3.10 Forecasts 12
2.4 Exchange Rates 13
2.5 Abbreviations 13
3 MARKET OVERVIEW 15
3.1 Market Size and Trends, 1996-2000 15
3.2 Market Segmentation 19
3.2.1 Type Of Ownership 19
3.2.2 Type Of Outlet 21
3.2.3 Source Of Turnover 22
3.3 Factors Affecting Demand 23
3.4 Forecast Segmentation, 2001-2005 28
3.4.1 Forecast Market Overview 28
3.4.2 Forecast Market Segmentation 30
3.4.2.1 Type Of Outlet 30
3.4.2.2 Source Of Turnover 32
4 Opportunities for Suppliers 34
5 Critical Success Factors 37
6 INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 40
6.1 Overview 40
6.2 Industry Concentration 41
6.3 Company Profiles 43
6.3.1 Bass 43
6.3.2 Enterprise Inns 44
6.3.3 Greene King 46
6.3.4 Nomura International 47
6.3.4.1 Overview 47
6.3.4.2 Unique Pub Company 48
6.3.5 Pubmaster Group 49
6.3.6 Punch Group And The Wellington Pub Company 50
6.3.6.1 Overview 50
6.3.6.2 Punch Pub Company 51
6.3.6.3 Punch Retail 52
6.3.6.4 The Wellington Pub Company 52
6.3.7 Scottish & Newcastle 53
6.3.8 Whitbread 55
6.3.9 The Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries 56
7 MAGAZINES 58
8 Trade AssociationS 60
List of Tables
1.     Economic Indicators On The UK Economy, 1995-2002 6
2.     The UK Public houses market, 1996-2000 15
3.     UK Household Final Consumption Expenditure On Alcoholic Drinks, 1995-1999 16
4.     UK Consumption Of Alcohol, 1995-1999 16
5.     Number Of Trips Taken In The UK, 1995-1999 17
6.     Proportional Importance Of Trips Taken By UK Nationals And Visitors, 1995-1999 17
7.     Number Of Public Houses In The UK, 1996-2000 18
8.     Brewery Owned Public Houses In The UK, By Type Of Public House, 1996-2000 19
9.     Pub Company Ownership Of Public Houses In The UK, By Type Of Public House, 1996-2000 20
10.  The UK Public Houses Industry, By Type Of Ownership, 2000 20
11.  UK Public Houses, By Type Of Outlet, 1996-2000 21
12.  Source Of Turnover Of Public Houses In The UK, By Income Sector, 1996-2000 23
13.  Proportion Of Adults Consuming Over Selected Weekly Levels Of Alcohol, By Age And Gender, 1998 25
14.  UK Beer Sales Analysed Between ‘On’ And ‘Off’ Channel Sales, 1995-1999 26
15.  Revenue Lost Through Cross-Channel Smuggling, By Product Type, 1996-2000 27
16.  Forecast UK Public Houses Market, 2001-2005 28
17.  Actual And Projected Population, By Age Group, 1998-2011 29
18.  Forecast Number Of Public Houses In The UK, 2001-2005 30
19.  Forecast Number Of Public Houses, By Type Of Outlet, 2001-2005 31
20.  Forecast Source Of Turnover Of Public Houses, By Income Sector, 2001-2005 33
21.  Brewers Capital Expenditure On Public Houses In The UK, 1996-2000 36
22.  The UK Public Houses Industry, By Type Of Owner, 2000 41
23.  Market Shares Of The Leading Pub Operators In The UK, 2000 42
24.  Financial Summary Of Bass, 1996-2000 44
25.  Financial Summary Of Enterprise Inns, 1996-2000 45
26.  Financial Summary Of Greene King, 1996-2000 47
27.  Financial Summary Of Nomura International, 1998-2000 48
28.  Financial Summary Of Pubmaster Group, 1995-1999 50
29.  Financial Summary Of Punch Taverns Holdings, 1998 And 1999 51
30.  Financial Summary Of The Wellington Pub Company, 1998 And 1999 53
31.  Scottish & Newcastle Estate, By Type Of Outlet, 2000 54
32.  Financial Summary Of Scottish & Newcastle, 1996-2000 54
33.  Financial Summary Of Whitbread, 1996-2000 56
34.  Financial Summary Of The Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries, 1996-2000 57

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The UK market for public houses increased by 18 percent between 1996 and 2000 to a total value of £23.7 billion (€39.8 billion) in 2000. The rate of growth was relatively high between 1996 and 1998. However, growth rates slowed in 1999 and 2000 to only 2 percent in each year, due to reduced capital expenditure by pub owners together with increased competition from alternative leisure activities.

The number of public houses in the UK is believed to have declined during the review period, to just 60 143 in 2000. Industry consolidation and a high degree of acquisitional activity contributed to this decline.

Food-led public houses are becoming increasingly important, and accounted for 49 percent of the number of public houses in the UK in 2000. MSI believe this trend is set to continue in the future with the number of food-led pubs increasing. In contrast, the number of community and wet?led pubs decreased between 1996 and 2000. These types of outlets have suffered as a result of increased competition and customer awareness of issues such as health concerns and drink driving.

Numerous factors affect the demand for public houses. Some of the most significant include:

The value of the UK public houses market is forecast to continue to increase between 2001 and 2005. During the same period the number of public houses in the UK is expected to continue to decline by some 2 percent. However, the rate of decline is expected to slow during the forecast period.

There are considerable opportunities for suppliers to the public houses market in the UK. Capital expenditure by breweries on public houses is estimated to have increased by a total of 178 percent between 1996 and 2000. A significant amount of expenditure has been invested in the refurbishment and re-branding of public houses during the review period. Moreover, the leading public house operators have extensive ongoing capital expenditure programmes.

Factors critical to the success of owners of public houses include the correct targeting of customers, the provision of a high quality range of food and drink, well trained staff and regular capital expenditure.

The leading nine operators of public houses industry in the UK accounted for 47 percent of the market in terms of number of outlets owned during 2000. The operators consist of brewing companies, ex-brewing companies and independent companies set up for the purpose of managing public houses.

Text © 2001 MSI

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Last updated by Jacob van Eldik 20th May 2001