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MS45039

MSI HOUSE BUILDING: UK: MAY 1999

Overview

Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION: Definitions; Methodology; UK Economy; Overview; Political Climate; Interest Rates; Inflation; Exchange Rates; Taxation; Consumer Expenditure; Output; Investment; Forecasts; Abbreviations; Exchange Rates
MARKET SIZE: Market Overview and Trends, 1994-1998; Market Segmentation; By Sector; By Type and Size of Property; By Tenure; Factors Affecting Demand; Market Forecasts, 1999-2003; Overview; Forecast Market Segmentation
REGIONAL TRENDS: Overview; South East; East Midlands; North West; South West; Greater London; Yorkshire & Humberside; West Midlands; North; East Anglia; Scotland; Wales; Northern Ireland
CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE: Overview; Market Shares; Company Profiles; Ben Bailey; Barratt Developments; Beazer Group; Bellway; The Berkeley Group; Bovis Homes; Bryant Group; Countryside Properties; Crest Nicholson; Croudace; Fairclough Homes; Fairview New Homes; Furlong Homes Group; Kier Group; John Laing (John Laing Homes); Y J Lovell (Holdings); Alfred McAlpine; Persimmon; Prowting; Redrow Group; Tay Homes; Taywood Homes; Wainhomes; Westbury; Wilson Bowden; Wilson (Connolly) Holdings (Wilcon Homes); George Wimpey
TRADE ASSOCIATIONS AND ORGANISATIONS
MAGAZINES
HOUSE BUILDERS
List of Tables: 1 Economic Indicators On The UK Economy, 1990-1999; 2 Total Construction Output In Great Britain, By Type Of Work, 1994-1998; 3 New House Building Activity In Great Britain, 1994-1998; 4 Number Of Property Transactions In England And Wales, 1994-1998; 5 Standardised Average House Prices In The UK, By Quarter, 1994-1998; 6 New Housing Construction Output In Great Britain, By Sector, 1994-1998; 7 Activity Undertaken By The Housing Corporation, 1994-1998; 8 All Grants And Funding Paid By Scottish Homes To Housing Associations And Co-ops, 1994-1999; 9 ADP Expenditure By The Welsh Office Housing Department, 1994-1998; 10 Expenditure By Registered Housing Associations In Northern Ireland, 1995-1999; 11 Housing Starts And Completions In Great Britain, By Sector, 1994-1998; 12 Housing Completions In England, By Type And Size Of Property, 1993-1997; 13 Comparison Of Average UK Prices Of New Housing With Existing Housing, By Sector, 1994-1998; 14 Forecast New House Building Activity In Great Britain, 1999-2003; 15 Forecast Number Of Property Transactions In England And Wales, 1999-2003; 16 Forecast UK Population, 1999-2003; 17 Forecast Number Of UK Households, 1996 And 2016; 18 Forecast New Housing Construction Output In Great Britain, By Sector, 1999-2003; 19 Forecasts Activity By The Housing Corporation, 1999; 20 Forecast ADP Expenditure By The Welsh Office, 1999 And 2000; 21 Forecast Housing Starts And Completions In Great Britain, By Sector, 1999-2003; 22 New Housing Construction Output In Great Britain, By Geographical Region, 1994-1998; 23 Geographical Analysis Of New Housing Construction Output In Great Britain, By Proportional Importance, 1994-1998; 24 Number Of Households In England And Wales, 1991, 1996 And 2016; 25 Number Of Households In The UK, By Geographical Region, 1994-1998; 26 UK New House Prices, By Geographical Region, 1994-1998; 27 UK House Prices, By Geographical Region, 1994-1998; 28 New House Building Activity In The South East, 1994-1998; 29 New House Building Activity In The East Midlands, 1994-1998; 30 New House Building Activity In The North West, 1994-1998; 31 New House Building Activity In The South West, 1994-1998; 32 New House Building Activity In Greater London, 1994-1998; 33 New House Building Activity In Yorkshire & Humberside, 1994-1998; 34 New House Building Activity In The West Midlands, 1994-1998; 35 New House Building Activity In The North Of England, 1994-1998; 36 New House Building Activity In East Anglia And Eastern England, 1994-1998; 37 New House Building Activity In Scotland, 1994-1998; 38 New House Building Activity In Wales, 1994-1998; 39 New House Building Activity In Northern Ireland, 1994-1998; 40 Expenditure On Advertising In The UK House Building Market, By Brand, 1994-1998; 41 Market Shares Of Leading House Building Companies In The UK, 1998; 42 Financial Summary Of Ben Bailey, 1993-1997; 43 Financial Summary Of Barratt Developments, 1994-1998; 44 Financial Summary Of Barratt Developments' UK Housing Businesses, 1994-1998; 45 Financial Summary Of Beazer Group, 1994-1998; 46 Financial Summary Of Bellway, 1994-1998; 47 Sales Of New Housing Units By Bellway, By Division, 1997 And 1998; 48 Financial Summary Of The Berkeley Group's Residential House Building Operations, 1995-1998; 49 Financial Summary Of Bovis Homes, 1994-1998; 50 Product Mix Analysis Of Bovis Homes, 1997; 51 Completions By Bovis Homes, By Region, 1996 And 1997; 52 Financial Summary Of Bryant Group's Homes Division, 1994-1998; 53 Geographical Location Of Bryant Group's Land Bank And Home Completions, By Region, 1998; 54 Financial Summary Of Countryside Properties Residential Development Division, 1996-1998; 55 Financial Summary Of Crest Nicholson's Residential Division, 1994-1998; 56 Financial Summary Of Croudace's Residential Development And General Contracting Operations, 1996 And 1997; 57 Financial Summary Of AMEC's Housing Division, 1995-1997; 58 Financial Summary Of Fairview New Homes, 1994-1997; 59 Financial Summary Of Furlong Homes Group, 1993-1997; 60 Completions By Furlong Homes, By Type, 1996 And 1997; 61 Financial Summary Of Kier Group, 1994-1998; 62 Financial Summary Of Kier Group's Homes And Property Division, 1997 And 1998; 63 Financial Summary Of John Laing Homes, 1996 And 1997; 64 Financial Summary Of John Laing Homes, By Division, 1997; 65 Financial Summary Of Y J Lovell (Holdings), 1994-1998; 66 Financial Summary Of Alfred McAlpine Homes, 1994-1997; 67 Completions By Alfred McAlpine Homes, By Geographic Region, 1997; 68 Financial Summary Of Persimmon, 1993-1997; 69 Financial Summary Of Prowting, 1994-1998; 70 Financial Summary Of Redrow Group's Homes Division, 1995-1998; 71 Financial Summary Of Tay Homes, 1994-1998; 72 Tay Homes' Turnover And Unit Sales, By Region, 1997 And 1998; 73 Financial Summary Of Taywood Homes, 1993-1997; 74 Financial Summary Of Wainhomes, 1994-1998; 75 Financial Summary Of Westbury, 1994-1998; 76 Financial Summary Of Wilson Bowden's House Building Division, 1994-1998; 77 Wilson Bowden's House Building Division Completions, By Unit Size, 1994-1998; 78 Financial Summary Of Wilson (Connolly) Holdings' House Building Division, 1994-1997; 79 Financial Summary Of George Wimpey, 1994-1998

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Housing construction output in Great Britain during 1998 is estimated to have risen by 6 percent to £25.2 billion (ECU36.3 billion), driven by a 13 percent rise in the value of new private housing output.

The number of housing starts and completions have exhibited a cyclic performance during the 1990s and, like housing output, were in decline during the early part of the decade. However, a modest increase in the number of housing starts was recorded in Great Britain in 1996, with a 9 percent increase in 1997. However, MSI estimate that housing starts declined during 1998 by some 3 percent. The trends in the number of housing completions have been somewhat more stable, with a modest increase in 1995 followed by a 5 percent decline in 1996 and a marginal decline in 1997. MSI estimate housing completions decreased by 3 percent during 1998.

In 1997, private sector building accounted for as much as 85 percent of the value of new housing construction output in Great Britain compared with 80 percent in 1996 and 77 percent in 1995. This increase in the proportional importance of new private sector housing is a reflection of the continuing decline in public sector work. Indeed, between 1994 and 1997 new public sector housing construction declined by a significant 27 percent. MSI estimate that public sector housing output underwent a further decline of some 13 percent during 1998, and the proportional importance of private sector housing rose to 88 percent of the total.

In 1997 some 86 percent of the total number of housing completions were of houses rather than flats. This compares with a figure of 78 percent in 1993. In the private sector flats accounted for only 12 percent of completions in 1997, with 70 percent of completions being houses with three or more bedrooms. In contrast, 28 percent of properties completed by housing associations in 1997 were flats, while houses with three or more bedrooms accounted for only 34 percent of completions by housing associations.

Higher levels of consumer confidence, encouraged by lower interest rates and improving economic conditions in 1999 and 2000 are forecast. The forecast for 1999 is for an increase in new housing starts but a decline in housing completions, resulting in an overall marginal decline in new housing construction output. However, sentiment in the first quarter of 1999 was changing rapidly, which may result in a more positive outcome for 1999 if confidence continues to be restored. The forecast will also result in a 9 percent increase in new house building activity in 2000 as demand for new housing increases. MSI forecast that housing construction output will follow an unsteady trend for the remainder of the forecast period. The number of housing starts is expected to increase and decrease more or less in line with changes in output, but completions are forecast to gradually decline from 2001 onwards. Public sector housing starts are forecast to increase by 22 percent to 33,000 dwellings by 2003 whilst private sector starts are expected to increase by only 9 percent during the same period. However, the total number of private sector starts will remain significantly higher than that for the public sector.

The South East and Greater London are believed to have accounted for some 29 percent of the value of new housing construction output in 1998. Other key regions in terms of value of output in 1998 included Scotland, the North West, the South West and West Midlands.

The concentration of the house building industry has increased in recent years as some of the leading house builders have acquired smaller regional house builders. Some of the most significant acquisitions have included John Laing Homes disposal of Laing Homes Scotland in April 1998 by selling the company to Persimmon and Persimmon's acquisition of Ideal Homes and Comben Group from Trafalgar House in February 1996. In April 1999, the American company Centex Corporation entered the UK house building market with the acquisition of Fairclough Homes from AMEC.

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