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MS45032
MSI HOUSE BUILDING: UK: 2002
Overview

This report covers: house building, regional trends, East Anglia, East Midlands, Greater London, North, North West, South East, South West, West Midlands, Yorkshire and Humberside, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, flats, starts, completions, property transactions,

Companies covered include: Barratt Developments,Bellway, Ben Bailey, Bovis Homes, Cala Group, Countryside Properties,Crest Nicholson, Croudace, Fairview Holdings, Kier Group, John Laing (John Laing Homes), Alfred McAlpine, Persimmon, Prowting, Redrow, The Berkeley Group, Taylor Woodrow, Westbury, Wilson Bowden, Wilson Connolly Holdings, George Wimpey,

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Key Findings 1
2 INTRODUCTION 3
2.1 Definitions 3
2.2 Methodology 4
2.3 Economic Background 5
2.3.1 Overview 5
2.3.2 Interest Rates 7
2.3.3 Inflation 7
2.3.4 Pre-Budget Report 2001 7
2.3.5 Forecasts 8
2.4 Exchange Rates 9
2.5 Abbreviations 9
3 MARKET SIZE 10
3.1 Market Overview and Trends, 1997-2001 10
3.2 Market Segmentation 15
3.2.1 By Sector 15
3.2.2 By Type and Size of Property 19
3.3 Factors Affecting Demand 20
3.4 Market Forecasts and Trends, 2002-2006 23
3.4.1 Overview 23
3.4.2 Forecast Market Segmentation, By Sector 25
4 Regional Trends 28
4.1 Overview 28
4.2 South East 33
4.3 West Midlands 34
4.4 Greater London 35
4.5 North West 35
4.6 South West 36
4.7 East Midlands 37
4.8 Yorkshire & Humberside 38
4.9 North 38
4.1 East Anglia 39
4.11 Scotland 40
4.12 Wales 41
4.13 Northern Ireland 42
5 Critical Success Factors 43
6 INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 48
6.1 Overview 48
6.2 Market Shares 49
6.3 Company Profiles 51
6.3.1 Barratt Developments 51
6.3.2 Bellway 52
6.3.3 Ben Bailey 53
6.3.4 Bovis Homes 54
6.3.5 Cala Group 56
6.3.6 Countryside Properties 57
6.3.7 Crest Nicholson 58
6.3.8 Croudace 59
6.3.9 Fairview Holdings 60
6.3.10 Kier Group 61
6.3.11 John Laing (John Laing Homes) 62
6.3.12 Alfred McAlpine 63
6.3.13 Persimmon 65
6.3.14 Prowting 66
6.3.15 Redrow 67
6.3.16 The Berkeley Group 69
6.3.17 Taylor Woodrow 70
6.3.18 Westbury 72
6.3.19 Wilson Bowden 73
6.3.20 Wilson Connolly Holdings 74
6.3.21 George Wimpey 75
7 Magazine Addresses 77
8 Trade Association addresses 78
List of Tables
1. Economic Indicators On The UK Economy, 2000-2003 6
2. UK New Housing Construction Output, 1997-2001 10
3. UK Housing Starts And Completions, 1997-2001 11
4. Number Of Property Transactions In England, Wales And Northern Ireland, 1997-2001 12
5. Standard Average Prices Of All Houses In The UK, By Quarter, 1997-2001 14
6. UK New Housing Construction Output, By Sector, 1997-2001 15
7. UK Housing Starts And Completions, BySector, 1997-2001 16
8. Activity Undertaken By The Housing Corporation, 1997-2001 17
9. Grants And Funding Paid By Scottish Homes To Housing Associations AndCo-Ops,1997-2001 17
10. Baseline ADP Expenditure By The Welsh Office Housing Department, 1997-2001 18
11. ADP Expenditure By Registered Housing Associations in Northern Ireland, 1997-2001 18
12. Permanent Dwellings Completed In England, By Tenure, Type And Number Of Bedrooms, 1997-2001 20
13. Forecast UK New Housing Construction Output, 2002-2006 24
14. Forecast UK Housing Starts And Completions, 2002-2006 24
15. Forecast Number Of Property Transactions In England, Wales And Northern Ireland, 2002-2006 25
16. Actual and Forecast Number Of Households In England, By Type Of Household, 1996-2021 25
17. Forecast UK New Housing Construction Output, By Sector, 2002-2006 26
18. Forecast UK Housing Starts And Completions, BySector, 2002-2006 27
19. UK New Housing Construction Output, By Geographical Region, 1997-2001 29
20. Number Of Dwellings In England, By Geographical Region, 1997-2001 31
21. All House Prices In The UK, By Geographical Region, 1997-2001 32
22. Standard New House Prices In The UK, By Geographical Region, 1997-2001 33
23. New House Building Activity In The South East, 1997-2001 34
24. New House Building Activity In The West Midlands, 1997-2001 34
25. New House Building Activity In Greater London, 1997-2001 35
26. New House Building Activity In The North West, 1997-2001 36
27. New House Building Activity In The South West, 1997-2001 37
28. New House Building Activity In The East Midlands, 1997-2001 37
29. New House Building Activity In Yorkshire And Humberside, 1997-2001 38
30. New House Building Activity In The North Of England, 1997-2001 39
31. New House Building Activity In East Anglia, 1997-2001 40
32. New House Building Activity In Scotland, 1997-2001 41
33. New House Building Activity In Wales, 1997-2001 42
34. New House Building Activity In Northern Ireland, 1997-2001 42
35. Market Shares Of Leading House Building Companies In The UK, 2001 50
36. Financial Summary Of Barratt Developments,1997-2001 51
37. Financial Summary Of Barratt Developments’ UK Housing Businesses, 1997-2001 52
38. Financial Summary Of Bellway, 1997-2001 53
39. Financial Summary Of Ben Bailey, 1996-2000 54
40. Financial Summary Of Bovis Homes, 1996-2000 55
41. Financial Summary Of CALA Group, 1997-2001 56
42. Financial Summary Of Countryside Properties, 1997-2001 57
43. Financial Summary Of Crest Nicholson (Residential,Property and Construction), 1997-2001 58
44. Financial Summary Of Croudace, 1997-2001 59
45. Financial Summary Of Fairview Holdings, 1996-2000 60
46. Financial Summary Of Kier Group, 1997-2001 61
47. Financial Summary Of John Laing Homes, 1996-2000 63
48. Financial Summary Of Alfred McAlpine Homes, 1996-2000 64
49. Financial Summary Of Persimmon, 1996-2000 65
50. Financial Summary Of Prowting, 1997-2001 67
51. Financial Summary Of Redrow, 1997-2001 68
52. Financial Summary Of The Berkeley Group,1997-2001 70
53. Financial Summary Of Taylor Woodrow, 1996-2000 71
54. Financial Summary Of Westbury, 1997-2001 72
55. Financial Summary Of Wilson Bowden (HouseBuildingDivision), 1997-2001 74
56. Financial Summary Of Wilson Connolly Holdings, 1997-2001 75
57. Financial Summary Of George Wimpey 1997-2001 76
List of Diagrams
1. UK New Housing Construction Output, By Sector, 1997-2006 2
2. UK New Housing Construction Output, By Region, 2001 30

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

KEY FINDINGS

House building output in the UK increased by some 9 percent to £9.5 billion (€15.6 billion), between 1997 and 2000. MSI estimate that the value of output increased by a further 16 percent in 2001 to reach £11.0 billion (€17.7 billion). -

MSI believe that the largest proportion of new housing construction in the UK is accounted for by the private sector, which represented some 78 percent of total UK new house building output in 2001, compared with 81 percent in 2000. MSI forecast that the proportional importance of new private sector housing construction will fall marginally in the five year period to 2006.

The number of housing starts and completions in the UK fluctuated throughout the review period 1997-2001. A modest increase in the total number of starts in 2001 due to increased private sector starts, compensated for a marginal decrease in the number of UK house completions that were made in the same year. A decreasing level of public housing starts throughout the review period due to low levels of government expenditure, reciprocated the gradual increase in the number of private starts made by house building companies throughout the five year period. The number of housing completions made in the UK in both the private and public sector fluctuated greatly throughout the review period, reflecting the impact of adverse weather conditions and government legislation on house builders. -

There are a number of important factors affecting demand for UK house building, including the ability of buyers to buy property, consumer confidence, house prices, sales incentives offered by house builders, government policy and legislation, demographic trends and regional trends. -

House building company's have the challenge of adjusting to the various government regulations that have been introduced, including the Planning Policy Guidance Note 3 legislation which requires various targets to be met in terms of increasing brownfield development and limiting the volume of greenfield construction undertaken. Similarly, compliance with the Building Regulation technical standards, Parts M,H,J,L, A and E will be required by the end of 2002. -

The concentration of the house building industry has increased in recent years as some of the leading house builders have acquired smaller regional companies. Some of the most significant activity includes George Wimpey's acquisition of Alfred McAlpine in September 2001 and the acquisition of Bryant Group by Taylor Woodrow in March 2001. MSI forecast further consolidation within the house building industry during the forecast period. The following diagram illustrates the development of UK new housing construction output between 1997 and 2006.

Text © 2002 MSI

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