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MS45031
MSI HOUSE BUILDING: UK: FEBRUARY 2001
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of Contents
1 Executive Summary 1
2 INTRODUCTION 3
2.1 Definitions 3
2.2 Methodology 4
2.3 Economic Background 5
2.3.1 Overview 5
2.3.2 Interest Rates 6
2.3.3 Inflation 7
2.3.4 Exchange Rates 7
2.3.5 Taxation 8
2.3.6 Household Income And Consumer Expenditure 9
2.3.7 Manufacturing Output 10
2.3.8 Services 11
2.3.9 Investment 11
2.3.10 Forecasts 12
2.4 Exchange Rates 13
2.5 Abbreviations 13
3 MARKET OVERVIEW 15
3.1 Market Size And Trends, 1996-2000 15
3.2 Market Segmentation 22
3.2.1 By Sector 22
3.2.2 By Type And Size Of Property 26
3.2.3 By Tenure 27
3.3 Factors Affecting Demand 28
3.4 Market Forecasts, 2001-2005 30
3.4.1 Overview 30
3.4.2 Forecast Market Segmentation 33
4 Regional Trends 37
4.1 Overview 37
4.2 South East 42
4.3 East Midlands 44
4.4 North West 44
4.5 South West 45
4.6 Greater London 46
4.7 Yorkshire & Humberside 47
4.8 West Midlands 48
4.9 North 49
4.1 East Anglia 50
4.11 Scotland 51
4.12 Wales 52
4.13 Northern Ireland 53
5 Critical Success Factors 55
6 INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 59
6.1 Overview 59
6.2 Market Shares 60
6.3 Company Profiles 62
6.3.1 Ben Bailey 62
6.3.2 Barratt Developments 63
6.3.3 Beazer Group 64
6.3.4 Bellway 66
6.3.5 The Berkley Group 67
6.3.6 Bovis Homes Group 69
6.3.7 Bryant Group 70
6.3.8 Countryside Properties 71
6.3.9 Crest Nicholson 73
6.3.10 Croudace 74
6.3.11 Fairclough Homes 75
6.3.12 Fairview Holdings 77
6.3.13 Furlong Homes Group 78
6.3.14 Kier Group 79
6.3.15 John Laing (John Laing Homes) 80
6.3.16 Alfred McAlpine 82
6.3.17 Persimmon 83
6.3.18 Prowting 84
6.3.19 Redrow Group 86
6.3.20 Tay Homes 87
6.3.21 Taywood Homes 89
6.3.22 Wainhomes 90
6.3.23 Westbury 91
6.3.24 Wilson Bowden 92
6.3.25 Wilson Connolly Holdings 94
6.3.26 George Wimpey 95
7 House Builders 97
8 MAGAZINES 106
9 Trade Associations 107

List of Tables
1. Economic Indicators On The UK Economy, 1995-2002 6
2.  Total Construction Output In Great Britain, By Sector, 1996-2000 16
3.  New House Building Output In Great Britain, 1996-2000 17
4.  House Building Starts And Completions In Great Britain, 1996-2000 18
5.  Number Of Property Transactions In England And Wales, 1996-2000 19
6.  Standard Average House Prices In The UK, By Quarter, 1996-2000 21
7.  New Housing Construction Output In Great Britain, By Sector, 1996-2000 22
8.  Activity Undertaken By The Housing Corporation, 1996-2000 23
9.  Grants And Funding Paid By Scottish Homes To Housing Associations And Co-Ops, 1996-2000 24
10.  ADP Expenditure By The Welsh Office Housing Department, 1996-2000 24
11.  Expenditure By Registered Housing Associations In Northern Ireland, 1995-1999 25
12.  Housing Starts And Completions In Great Britain, By Sector, 1996-2000 26
13.  Housing Completions In England, By Type And Size Of Property, 1993-1997 27
14.  Housing Tenure In England, 1996-2000 28
15.  Forecast New House Building Output In Great Britain, 2001-2005 31
16.  Forecast House Building Starts And Completions In Great Britain, 2001-2005 31
17.  Forecast Number Of Property Transactions In England And Wales, 2001-2005 32
18.  Forecast Number Of Households In England, 1996 And 2021 33
19.  Forecast New Housing Construction Output In Great Britain, By Sector, 2001-2005 34
20.  Forecast Activity By The Housing Corporation, 2001 34
21.  Forecast Grants And Funding Paid By Scottish Homes To Housing Associations And Co-Ops, 2001 35
22.  Forecast ADP Expenditure By The Welsh Office, 2001 35
23.  Forecast Housing Starts And Completions In Great Britain, By Sector, 2001-2005 36
24.  New Housing Construction Output In Great Britain, By Geographical Region, 1996-2000 38
25.  Regional New Housing Construction Output In Great Britain, By Proportional Importance, 1996-2000 39
26.  Number Of Dwellings In Great Britain, By Geographical Region, 1996-2000 40
27.  Standard New House Prices In The UK, By Geographical Region, 1996-2000 41
28.  House Prices In The UK, By Geographical Region, 1996-2000 42
29.  New Housebuilding Activity In The South East, 1996-2000 43
30.  New Housebuilding Activity In The East Midlands, 1996-2000 44
31.  New Housebuilding Activity In The North West, 1996-2000 45
32.  New Housebuilding Activity In The South West, 1996-2000 46
33.  New Housebuilding Activity In Greater London, 1996-2000 47
34.  New Housebuilding Activity In Yorkshire And Humberside, 1996-2000 48
35.  New Housebuilding Activity In The West Mildands, 1996-2000 49
36.  New Housebuilding Activity In The North Of England, 1996-2000 50
37.  New Housebuilding Activity In East Anglia, 1996-2000 51
38.  New Housebuilding Activity In Scotland, 1996-2000 52
39.  New Housebuilding Activity In Wales, 1996-2000 53
40.  New Housebuilding Activity In Northern Ireland, 1996-2000 54
41.  Market Shares Of Leading House Building Companies In The UK, 2000 61
42.  Financial Summary Of Ben Bailey, 1995-1999 62
43.  Financial Summary Of Barratt Developments, 1996-2000 63
44.  Financial Summary Of Barratt Developments’ UK Housing Businesses, 1996-2000 64
45.  Financial Summary Of Beazer Group, 1996-2000 65
46.  Financial Summary Of Bellway, 1996-2000 67
47.  Financial Summary Of The Berkley Group, 1996-2000 68
48.  Financial Summary Of Bovis Homes Group, 1995-1999 69
49.  Financial Summary Of Bryant Group, 1996-2000 71
50.  Financial Summary Of Countryside Properties, 1996-2000 72
51.  Financial Summary Of Crest Nicholson’s Residential Division, 1995-1999 73
52.  Financial Summary Of Croudace’s Residential Development And General Contracting Operations, 1996-1999 75
53.  Financial Summary Of Amec’s Housing Corporation Division, 1995-1997 76
54.  Financial Summary Of Fairview Holdings, 1995-1999 77
55.  Financial Summary Of Furlong Homes Group, 1995-1999 78
56.  Financial Summary Of Kier Group, 1996-2000 79
57.  Financial Summary Of Kier Group’s Homes And Property Division, 1997-2000 80
58.  Financial Summary Of John Laing Homes, 1996-1999 81
59.  Financial Summary Of Alfred Mcalpine Homes, 1995-1999 82
60.  Financial Summary Of Persimmon, 1995-1999 84
61.  Financial Summary Of Prowting, 1996-2000 85
62.  Financial Summary Of Redrow Group’s Homes Division, 1996-2000 86
63.  Financial Summary Of Tay Homes, 1996-2000 88
64.  Tay Homes Unit Sales And Average Price, By Region 2000 88
65.  Financial Summary Of Taywood Homes, 1995-1999 89
66.  Financial Summary Of Wainhomes, 1995-1999 91
67. Financial Summary Of Westbury, 1996-2000 92
68.  Financial Summary Of Wilson Bowden’s House Building Division, 1995-1999 93
69. Financial Summary Of Wilson Connolly Holdings, 1995-1999 94
70. Financial Summary Of George Wimpey, 1995-1999 95

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

New housing construction output in Great Britain has increased throughout of the review period with the exception of a small decline in 1999. MSI estimate that the market size has increased by 18 percent in 2000 compared with the previous year, to a value of £9 926 (€16 676 million). This has been driven by increases in housing construction output in the private and public sectors.

Housing starts and completions have fluctuated during the review period, continuing the cyclical nature of the early 1990s. The total number of starts have increased each year since 1998, to a total of 179 800 in 2000, despite declines in the public sector. MSI estimate that housing completions have declined in 2000, by 2 percent from the previous 12 months, with a decrease in both public and private sectors.

Some 68 percent of all homes in England in 1999 were owner occupied, a slight increase from 1996. The number of social rented properties in England has fluctuated since 1995, with a marginal increase in 1999. The number of private rented homes increased in 1999 by 4 percent, despite a decline in the total number of furnished, rented homes.

Many different factors affect demand for housing. Some of the most significant include:

· consumer confidence
· government policy
· the pricing of new and existing housing
· demographic trends
· regional trends.

Output during the forecast period is expected to increase significantly in value terms, with the general trend being an increase in market value to 2003, followed by a marginal decline in 2004, and then a further increase in 2005 of 3 percent. This is expected to reflect continued consumer confidence in the housing market, combined with favourable interest rates. Total completions are expected to increase each year from 2003 onwards, whereas total starts are forecast to fluctuate between 2001 and 2005. The number of private sector starts and completions will remain considerably higher than the number of public sector starts and completions, although strong growth in the public sector is expected.

Housing construction in the UK varies considerably across each region. The South East and Greater London will continue to be the most significant regions in terms of new housing construction. Wales and East Anglia were proportionally the least significant areas of the UK in 2000. Moreover, MSI estimate that total output value in both regions has declined in 2000. UK house prices and new house prices both increased during 2000, with an average new house price standing at £94 748 (€159 177). Greater London house prices are the most expensive in the UK.

The UK house building industry has become more concentrated during the review period. Indeed, the leading 20 UK house builders now account for 60 percent of the total number of UK completions. MSI estimate that Barratt Developments is the leading house builder in the UK, followed by the Beazer Group. Significant acquisitions have taken place in recent years, helping to bring companies into new geographical and product areas.

Text © 2001 MSI

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Last updated by Paul Tucker 12th March 2001