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Table of Contents

Executive Summary

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

Definitions

Methodology

The German Economy

Exchange Rates

Abbreviations

MARKET SIZE

Market Overview

Boilers

Overview

By Type of Fuel

Wall Mounted and Floor Standing Boilers

Condensing Boilers

Oil Fuelled Unit Boilers

By Type of Installation

Radiators

Overview

By Type of Installation

Under Floor Heating Systems

District Heating and Alternative Energies

District Heating

Solar Energy

FACTORS AFFECTING DEMAND

Overview

German Economy

House Building Activity

Market Size, 1993-1997

Forecast Market Size, 1998-2002

Weather

Age of Existing Heating Systems

Marketing

Legislation and Regulation

Government Funding

Local Politics

Energy Prices

Competitive Products

FORECAST MARKET SIZE, 1999-2003

Overview

Boilers

Overview

By Type of Fuel

Wall Mounted and Floor Standing Boilers

Condensing Boilers

Oil Fuelled Unit Boilers

Radiators

PRODUCTION

Overview

Critical Success Factors

INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Imports

Radiators

Boilers

Burners

Implications for Importers

Exports

Radiators

Boilers

Burners

Trade Surplus (Deficit)

Radiators

Boilers

Burners

DISTRIBUTION

Overview

Boilers

Radiators

Burners

Distribution Industry Structure

Overview

Company Profiles

GC Group

Mannesmann Haustechnik

Raab Karcher Sanit„r Heizung Fliesen

Richter & Frenzel

Thyssen Handelsunion

MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

Overview

Boilers

Radiators

Burners

Company Profiles

Bosch Group

August Br"tje

Buderus

Overview

Sieger Heizsysteme

Preussag Group

Overview

Kermi

Elco Kl"ckner Heitztechnik

Wolf

Purmo

Sch„fer Werke

Vaillant

Vissmann

Max Weishaupt

Zehnder W„rmek"rper

TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

MAGAZINES

List of Tables

1 Economic Indicators On The German Economy, 1986-1999

2 The German Market For Domestic Central Heating Boilers, 1994-1998

3 Importance Of Different Types Of Fuel For Heating Systems As A Proportion Of The Total Number Of Housing Completions In Germany, 1994-1998

4 Importance Of Types Of Fuel Used In Existing Housing In Germany, 1990 And 1998

5 Number Of Flats In Germany Heated With Gas, 1990-1997

6 The German Market For Domestic Central Heating Boilers, By Type Of Fuel, 1994-1998

7 The German Market For Domestic Central Heating Boilers, By Type, 1994-1998

8 The German Market For Condensing Boilers, 1994-1998

9 The German Market For Domestic Central Oil Fuelled Boilers, By Type, 1994 And 1998

10 The German Market For Domestic Central Heating Boilers, By Type Of Installation, 1998

11 German Market For Domestic Central Heating Radiators, 1994-1998

12 The German Market For Domestic Central Heating Radiators By Type Of Installation, 1998

13 Area Of Installed Solar Collectors, 1992-1997

14 Unemployment In Germany, 1991-1999

15 House Building Activity In Germany, 1993-1997

16 Project Completions In Germany, By Type Of Property, 1993-1997

17 Forecast House Building Activity In Germany, 1998-2002

18 Forecast Project Completions In Germany, By Type Of Property, 1998-2002

19 Age Structure Of Oil And Gas Boilers Serviced By The Schornsteinfegerhandwerk In Germany, 1993-1997

20 German Legislation Concerning Central Heating Systems

21 Usage Of Energy For Domestic Heating In Germany, 1993-1997

22 Population GDP And Energy Consumption Per Capita, 1990-2020

23 Forecast Scenario Of Demand For Central Heating Boilers, 1999-2004

24 Forecast Market For Central Heating Boilers, 1999-2003

25 Forecast German Market For Central Heating Boilers, By Type Of Fuel, 1999-2003

26 Forecast German Market For Domestic Central Heating Boilers, By Type, 1999 And 2003

27 Forecast German Market For Condensing Boilers, 1999-2003

28 Forecast German Market For Domestic Central Oil Fuelled Boilers, By Type, 1999 And 2003

29 Forecast German Market For Domestic Central Heating Radiators, 1999-2003

30 German Production Of Selected Components Of Central Heating Systems, 1995-1997

31 German Imports Of Central Heating Radiators, 1993-1997

32 German Imports Of Central Heating Boilers, 1993-1997

33 German Imports Of Burners, 1993-1997

34 German Exports Of Central Heating Radiators, 1993-1997

35 German Imports Of Central Heating Boilers, 1993-1997

36 German Exports Of Burners, 1993-1997

37 German Trade Deficit In Radiators, 1993-1997

38 Trade Surplus For Boilers, 1993-1997

39 Trade Surplus For Burners, 1993-1997

40 Turnover By Raab Karcher Sanit„r Heizung Fliesen, 1993-1997

41 Sales Of Thyssen Handelsunion, By Business Sector, 1994-1997

42 Sales Of Plumbing And Heating Equipment By The Building & Products Business Sector Of Thyssen Handelsunion, 1994-1997

43 Turnover Of Bosch Thermotechnik, 1994-1996

44 Financial Summary Of Buderus Heiztechnik, 1996 And 1997

45 Financial Summary Of The Preussag Group, 1993-1997

46 Turnover Of The Preussag Group, By Business Sector, 1994-1997

47 Turnover Of Kermi, 1994-1997

48 Turnover Of Wolf, 1994-1997

49 Turnover Of Purmo, 1992-1997

50 Turnover Of Max Weishaupt, By Product Group, 1994-1996

51 Turnover Of Max Weishaupt, 1994-1997

List of Diagrams

1 Distribution Of Central Heating Equipment In Germany, 1997

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

MSI believe that the German market for central heating boilers followed a decreasing trend throughout the whole review period in volume and value terms. Indeed, the volume market declined by some 11 percent to a projected 844 800 systems sold in 1998 while sales in value terms fell by a more significant 26 percent in the same period. The economic situation, the artificial stimulation of the market following reunification and the recession in the construction industry are believed to be the main factors which caused this negative trend.

The proportional importance of gas fuelled boilers was increased throughout the whole review period from some 61 percent in 1994 to a projected 66 percent of the total volume market in 1998. The success of wall mounted as well as condensing boilers significantly contributed to this growth. Indeed, condensing boilers were the product group with the strongest growth rates of as much as 204 percent throughout the whole review period.

Although volume sales of oil fuelled boilers decreased between 1994 and 1998, the proportional importance of units sold increased significantly due to the inherent advantages of this type of boiler.

The German market for central heating radiators increased in 1995 before demand declined for the remainder of the review period to a projected volume of 10.3 million radiators, representing a value of DM1.42 billion (ECU0.72 billion) at 1997 prices. MSI believe that some 65 percent of the total market for radiators are sold to the new housing market which in turn reflects the importance of changes in the new housing sector to demand for radiators.

There are a number of factors affecting the German market for central heating systems, including:

- German economy

- house building activity

- weather

- age of existing heating systems

- marketing

- legislation and regulations

- government funded initiatives

- local politics

- energy prices

- competitive products

MSI forecast that the German market for central heating boilers will decline in 1999 and 2000 before demand is stimulated by the deadlines of the 1.BlmSchV and the recovery in the construction industry. Sales of central heating boilers are forecast to reach a volume of 966 000 systems in 2003, with gas fuelled boilers continuing to play an increasingly important role. Sales of central heating radiators are expected to follow a similar trend, although growth rates in the second half of the forecast period are not expected to be as strong as in the boilers market. MSI forecast that demand for radiators will reach some 10 million radiators in 2003.

The structure of the manufacturing industry for central heating boilers is characterised by the strong presence of large German companies. In contrast, international manufacturers play an important role in the market for central heating radiators.

Text © 1998 MSI

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