Table of Contents

Executive Summary

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION Definitions Methodology UK Economy Overview

Political Climate Interest Rates Inflation Exchange Rates Taxation

Consumer Expenditure Output

Investment

Forecasts

Exchange Rates Abbreviations

MARKET SIZE

Market Overview and Trends, 1994-1998 Market Segmentation, 1994-1998 Factors Affecting Demand

Market Forecasts, 1999-2003

Overview

Forecast Market Segmentation

PRODUCTION

INTERNATIONAL TRADE Imports

Overview

Import Penetration

Implications for Importers Exports

DISTRIBUTION Overview Graphics

Case Materials Newsprint

Folding Boxboards and Wrappings Industrial Tissues

Household Tissues

CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS

CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

PAPER AND BOARD MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY STRUCTURE Overview

Company Profiles

Arjo Wiggins Appleton

BPB Paperboard

James Cropper

Kimberly-Clark

SCA

Shotton Paper Company

St Regis Paper Company

UK Paper

PAPER MERCHANTS INDUSTRY STRUCTURE Overview

Company Profiles

Arjo UK Merchants

Bunzl Fine Paper

The HSP Group

Overview

Howard Smith Papers

Contract Paper Company

Guppy Paper

James McNaughton Paper Group

MoDo Merchants

R A Brand & Company

Robert Horne Paper Company

Spicers

CONVERTERS INDUSTRY STRUCTURE Overview

Company Profiles

Colombier (UK)

Field Group

Lawson Mardon Packaging UK

The M6 Paper Group

Rexam

Smurfit Investments UK

END USERS

Printing and Publishing

Overview

General Printing and Publishing Newspapers & Magazines

Books

Packaging

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS Overview

The UK Economy Overview

Political Climate Interest Rates Inflation

Exchange Rates Taxation

Household Income and Consumer Expenditure Manufacturing Output

Services

Investment

Forecasts

TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

MAGAZINES

List of Tables

1 Economic Indicators On The UK Economy, 1990-1999

2 UK Paper And Board Market, 1994-1998

3 Segmentation Of The UK Paper And Board Market, By Product

Type, 1994-1998

4 UK Paper And Board Industry's Consumption Of Waste Paper,

1993-1997

5 Forecast UK Paper And Board Market, 1999-2003

6 Forecast Segmentation Of The UK Paper And Board Market, By

Product Type, 1999-2003

7 UK Production Of Paper And Board, By Product Type, 1994-1998

8 UK Imports Of Paper And Board, 1994-1998

9 UK Imports Of Paper And Board, By Product Type, 1994-1998

10 Import Penetration In The UK Paper And Board Market, By

Product Type, 1998

11 Import Penetration In The UK Paper And Board Market,

1994-1998

12 UK Exports Of Paper And Board, 1994-1998

13 UK Exports Of Paper And Board, By Product Type, 1994-1998

14 UK Exports Of Paper And Board, By Destination, 1997

15 Merchants' Share Of UK Graphics Market, By Paper Type, 1998

16 Distribution Of Case Materials In The UK, By Distribution

Channel, 1998

17 Distribution Of Newsprint In The UK, By Distribution

Channel, 1998

18 The Supply Of Newsprint In The UK, By Area Of Origin, 1997

19 Distribution Of Folding Boxboards And Wrappings In The UK,

By Distribution Channel, 1998

20 Distribution Of Industrial Tissues In The UK, By

Distribution Channel, 1998

21 Retail Distribution Of Household Tissues In The UK, By

Distribution Channel, 1998

22 Investment In The UK Paper And Board Industry, 1994-1998

23 UK Paper And Board Industry Investment, By Type Of Project,

1994

24 UK Paper And Board Industry Investment, By Type Of Project,

1995

25 UK Paper And Board Industry Investment, By Type Of Project,

1996

26 UK Paper And Board Industry Investment, By Type Of Project,

1997

27 UK Paper And Board Industry Investment, By Type Of Project,

1998

28 Total UK Paper And Board Industry Investment, By Product

Type, 1994-1998

29 UK Paper And Board Industry Investment, By Product Type,

1994-1998

30 Financial Summary Of Arjo Wiggins Appleton, 1994-1998

31 Financial Summary Of BPB United Kingdom, 1994-1998

32 Financial Summary Of James Cropper, 1995-1999

33 Financial Summary Of James Cropper, By Division, 1998 And

1999

34 Turnover Of James Cropper, By Geographical Destination, 1999

35 Financial Summary Of Kimberly-Clark, 1993-1997

36 Financial Summary Of SCA, 1994-1998

37 Net Sales Of SCA, By Destination, 1997 And 1998

38 Net Sales Of SCA, By Division, 1997 And 1998

39 Financial Summary Of Shotton Paper Company, 1996 And 1997

40 Financial Summary Of St Regis Paper Company, 1997 And 1998

41 Turnover Of St Regis Paper Company, By Geographical

Destination, 1997 And 1998

42 Financial Summary Of UK Paper, 1993-1997

43 Turnover Of UK Paper, By Destination, 1993-1997

44 Financial Summary Of Arjo UK Merchants, 1994-1998

45 Financial Summary Of Bunzl Fine Paper, 1994-1998

46 Financial Summary Of Howard Smith Papers, 1993-1997

47 Financial Summary Of Contract Paper Company, 1994-1998

48 Financial Summary Of Guppy Paper, 1993-1997

49 Financial Summary Of James McNaughton Paper Group, 1994-1998

50 Financial Summary Of MoDo Merchants, 1994-1998

51 Financial Summary Of R A Brand & Company, 1994-1997

52 Financial Summary Of Robert Horne Paper Company, 1993-1997

53 Financial Summary Of Spicers, 1994-1998

54 European Folding Carton Converters, By Size And Market

Share, 1997 And 2002

55 Financial Summary Of Colombier (UK), 1994-1998

56 Financial Summary Of Field Group, 1995-1999

57 Financial Summary Of Lawson Mardon Packaging UK, 1994-1998

58 Turnover Of Lawson Mardon Packaging UK, By Geographical

Destination, 1997 And 1998

59 Financial Summary Of The M6 Paper Group, 1995-1999

60 Financial Summary Of Rexam, 1994-1998

61 Financial Summary Of Rexam, By Business Area, 1997 And 1998

62 Rexam's Turnover From Continuing Operations, By Geographical

Destination, 1997 And 1998

63 Financial Summary Of Smurfit Investments UK, 1994-1998

64 Volume Of Direct Mail Sent In UK, 1993-1997

65 Sales Of Newspapers In The UK, By Type, August 1997 To June

1998

66 UK Consumer Magazines Market, By Sector, 1995

67 Sources Of UK Publishers' Revenue, 1996

68 Books Published In The UK, By Type And Sector, 1992 And 1997

69 Book Sales, By Destination, 1996

70 Economic Indicators On The UK Economy, 1992-2000

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The UK market for paper and board increased by 7 percent during 1997 to

a volume of 12.2 million tonnes. However, the market is estimated to have declined by 1 percent during 1998.

The largest sector of the UK paper and board market is that of graphics, which accounted for 37 percent of volume sales in 1998. The

case materials sector has declined in proportional importance, accounting for 20 percent of the total paper and board market in 1998. Newsprint accounted for a further 19 percent of the paper and board

market in 1998.

The UK paper and board market is affected by a number of key factors. These include:

- end user industries' output

- business and consumer confidence

- capacity utilisation and stock levels

- prices, currency exchange rates and the euro

- production capacity

- stock levels

- environmental issues

- technological developments

- the availability of substitute products

MSI forecast that the UK paper and board market will decline by 2 percent during 1999, followed by increases of 1 percent and 4 percent in 2000 and 2001 respectively before increasing to a volume of 13.1 million tonnes by the year 2003.

UK production of paper and board increased by 2 percent in volume terms during 1998 despite the recession in manufacturing, worldwide overcapacity and difficulties caused by the strength of Sterling. This growth in domestic production reflects the increased pulp and paper manufacturing capacity and increased use of recycled waste paper.

Import penetration in the UK paper and board market is estimated to have increased to 63 percent in 1998, compared with 59 percent in 1997. The increased importance of imports reflects the relative strength

of Sterling which has made imported products more price competitive.

Merchants are estimated to have accounted for 74 percent and 17 percent of distribution of woodfree and mechanical graphics paper respectively in the UK during 1998. In contrast, only 2 percent of case materials were distributed through merchants, with 98 percent going to converters. Similarly, merchants are estimated to have accounted for just 2 percent of newsprint distribution in the UK during 1998, with direct sales accounting for 98 percent, reflecting the concentration of the newspaper industry.

MSI estimate that converters accounted for 91 percent of folding boxboards and wrappings sold in the UK during 1998. Specialist distributors accounted for 58 percent of industrial tissues in volume terms in 1998. In the household tissues sector the proportional importance of grocery multiples increased to 79 percent during 1998 at the expense of chemists & drugstores and other grocers.

The UK paper and board industry is led by a number of international companies. MSI forecast that consolidation in the industry will play an increasing role over the next five years, with very large international companies leading the industry at the expense of medium and small companies, which will seek to exploit niche markets for bespoke products.

Text © 1999 MSI

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