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| MS15002 |
| MSI FAST FOOD: UK: APRIL 2002 |
| Overview |

This report covers: Fast Food: UK,Sandwiches,Hamburgers,Pizza and Pasta,Fish and Chips,Chicken,Chinese,Indian,Mexican,Soup,
Companies covered include: Aroma,Compass Group,Diago,Domino's Pizza Group,HarryRamsden's (Restaurant),Kentucky Fried Chicken (Great Britain),McDonald's Restaurants,Perfect Pizza,Pizza Hut, (UK),Pret A Manger,Soup Opera,Subway,The New Covent Garden Soup Company, Tricon Global Restaurants, Whitbread,
| 1 | KEY FINDINGS | 1 |
| 2 | INTRODUCTION | 3 |
| 2.1 | Definitions | 3 |
| 2.2 | Methodology | 4 |
| 2.3 | Economic Background | 5 |
| 2.3.1 | Overview | 5 |
| 2.3.2 | Interest Rates | 7 |
| 2.3.3 | Inflation | 7 |
| 2.3.4 | Pre-Budget Report 2001 | 7 |
| 2.3.5 | Forecasts | 8 |
| 2.4 | Exchange Rates | 9 |
| 2.5 | Abbreviations | 9 |
| 3 | MARKET OVERVIEW | 11 |
| 3.1 | Market Size And Trends, 1997-2001 | 11 |
| 3.2 | Market Segmentation | 14 |
| 3.3 | Factors Affecting Demand | 17 |
| 3.3.1 | Overview | 17 |
| 3.3.2 | Consumer Expenditure | 17 |
| 3.3.3 | Demographic Trends | 19 |
| 3.3.4 | Lifestyle Trends | 21 |
| 3.3.5 | Seasonality | 22 |
| 3.3.6 | Substitute Products | 23 |
| 3.4 | Forecast Market Segmentation, 2002-2006 | 24 |
| 4 | SANDWICHES | 28 |
| 4.1 | Market Overview, 1997-2001 | 28 |
| 4.2 | Market Forecasts, 2002-2006 | 29 |
| 5 | HAMBURGERS | 32 |
| 5.1 | Market Overview, 1997-2001 | 32 |
| 5.2 | Market Forecasts, 2002-2006 | 33 |
| 6 | PIZZA AND PASTA | 36 |
| 6.1 | Market Overview, 1997-2001 | 36 |
| 6.2 | Market Forecasts, 2002-2006 | 37 |
| 7 | FISH AND CHIPS | 39 |
| 7.1 | Market Overview, 1997-2001 | 39 |
| 7.2 | Market Forecasts, 2002-2006 | 40 |
| 8 | CHICKEN FAST FOOD | 42 |
| 8.1 | Market Overview, 1997-2001 | 42 |
| 8.2 | Market Forecasts, 2002-2006 | 43 |
| 9 | ETHNIC FAST FOOD | 45 |
| 9.1 | Market Overview, 1997-2001 | 45 |
| 9.2 | Chinese Fast Food | 45 |
| 9.2.1 | Market Overview, 1997-2001 | 45 |
| 9.2.2 | Market Forecasts, 2002-2006 | 46 |
| 9.3 | Indian Fast Food | 47 |
| 9.3.1 | Market Overview, 1997-2001 | 47 |
| 9.3.2 | Market Forecasts, 2002-2006 | 48 |
| 9.4 | Mexican & Other Types Of Fast Food | 49 |
| 9.4.1 | Market Overview, 1999-2001 | 49 |
| 9.4.2 | Market Forecasts, 2002-2006 | 50 |
| 10 | SOUP | 52 |
| 10.1 | Market Overview, 1998-2001 | 52 |
| 10.2 | Market Forecasts, 2002-2006 | 53 |
| 11 | CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS | 54 |
| 12 | OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUPPLIERS | 57 |
| 13 | INDUSTRY STRUCTURE | 61 |
| 13.1 | Overview | 61 |
| 13.1.1 | Introduction | 61 |
| 13.1.2 | Sandwiches | 62 |
| 13.1.3 | Hamburgers | 63 |
| 13.1.4 | Pizza And Pasta | 64 |
| 13.1.5 | Fish And Chips | 65 |
| 13.1.6 | Chicken Fast Food | 66 |
| 13.1.7 | Ethnic Fast Food | 66 |
| 13.1.8 | Soup | 67 |
| 13.2 | Company Profiles | 68 |
| 13.2.1 | Aroma | 68 |
| 13.2.2 | Compass Group | 69 |
| 13.2.3 | Diageo | 71 |
| 13.2.4 | Dominos Pizza Group | 72 |
| 13.2.5 | Harry Ramsdens (Restaurant) | 73 |
| 13.2.6 | Kentucky Fried Chicken (Great Britain) | 74 |
| 13.2.7 | McDonalds Restaurants | 76 |
| 13.2.8 | Perfect Pizza | 77 |
| 13.2.9 | PizzaExpress | 78 |
| 13.2.10 | Pizza Hut (UK) | 80 |
| 13.2.11 | Pret A Manger | 81 |
| 13.2.12 | Soup Opera | 82 |
| 13.2.13 | Subway | 83 |
| 13.2.14 | The New Covent Garden Soup Company | 83 |
| 13.2.15 | Tricon Global Restaurants | 84 |
| 13.2.16 | Whitbread | 86 |
| 14 | MAGAZINE ADDRESSES | 89 |
| 15 | TRADE ASSOCIATION ADDRESSES | 91 |
| 16 | TRADE EXHIBITIONS | 93 |
| LIST OF TABLES | |
| 1. Economic Indicators On The UK Economy, 2000-2003 | 6 |
| 2. The UK Market For Fast Food, 1997-2001 | 11 |
| 3. Average UK Weekly Expenditure On Take-Away Food, By Sector And By Age Of The Head Of Household, 2000 | 12 |
| 4. Average Weekly Expenditure On Take-Away Food In The UK, By Region, 2000 | 13 |
| 5. The UK Market For Fast Food, By Sector, 1997-2001 | 15 |
| 6. Proportional Importance Of The Sectors Of The UK Market For Fast Food, By Sector, 1997-2001 | 17 |
| 7. Changes In Real Disposable Income In The UK, 1997-2002 | 18 |
| 8. Household Expenditure On Eating Out In The UK, 1997-2000 | 19 |
| 9. UK Population, By Age Group, 1999-2021 | 21 |
| 10. Forecast UK Market For Fast Food, 2002-2006 | 24 |
| 11. Forecast UK Market For Fast Food, By Sector, 2002-2006 | 26 |
| 12. The UK Market For Sandwiches, 1997-2001 | 28 |
| 13. Forecast UK Market For Sandwiches, 2002-2006 | 30 |
| 14. The UK Market For Hamburger Fast Food, 1997-2001 | 32 |
| 15. Forecast UK Market For Hamburger Fast Food, 2002-2006 | 33 |
| 16. The UK Market For Pizza And Pasta Fast Food, 1997-2001 | 36 |
| 17. The UK Market For Pizza And Pasta Fast Food, By Type Of Food, 2001 | 36 |
| 18. Forecast UK Market For Pizza And Pasta Fast Food, 2002-2006 | 38 |
| 19. The UK Market For Fish And Chips, 1997-2001 | 39 |
| 20. Forecast UK Market For Fish And Chips, 2002-2006 | 41 |
| 21. The UK Market For Chicken Fast Food, 1997-2001 | 42 |
| 22. Forecast UK Market For Chicken Fast Food, 2002-2006 | 43 |
| 23. The UK Market For Chinese Fast Food, 1997-2001 | 45 |
| 24. Forecast UK Market For Chinese Fast Food, 2002-2006 | 46 |
| 25. The UK Market For Indian Fast Food, 1997-2001 | 47 |
| 26. Number Of Indian Restaurants In The UK, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 1998 | 48 |
| 27. Forecast UK Market For Indian Fast Food, 2002-2006 | 49 |
| 28. The UK Market For Mexican Fast Food, 1999-2001 | 50 |
| 29. Forecast UK Market For Mexican Fast Food, 2002-2006 | 51 |
| 30. The UK Market For Soup Fast Food, 1998-2001 | 52 |
| 31. Forecast UK Market For Soup Fast Food, 2002-2006 | 53 |
| 32. The UK Market For Pizza And Pasta, By Type Of Distribution, 2001 | 64 |
| 33. Number Of Fish And Chip Shops In the UK, 1980, 1990, 2000 And 2002 | 65 |
| 34. Financial Summary Of Aroma, 1997-2000 | 68 |
| 35. Financial Summary Of Compass Group, 1997-2001 | 70 |
| 36. Turnover Of Compass Group, By Geographical Region, 2000 And 2001 | 70 |
| 37. Financial Summary Of Diageo, 1998-2001 | 72 |
| 38. Financial Summary Of Dominos Pizza Group, 1997-2000 | 73 |
| 39. Financial Summary Of Harry Ramsdens (Restaurant), 1996-2000 | 74 |
| 40. Financial Summary Of Kentucky Fried Chicken (Great Britain), 1996-2000 | 76 |
| 41. Financial Summary Of McDonalds Restaurants, 1996-2000 | 77 |
| 42. Financial Summary Of Perfect Pizza, 1997-2000 | 78 |
| 43. Financial Summary Of PizzaExpress, 1997-2001 | 79 |
| 44. Financial Summary Of Pizza Hut (UK), 1996-2000 | 81 |
| 45. Financial Summary Of Soup Opera, 1998-2000 | 82 |
| 46. Financial Summary Of The New Covent Garden Soup Company, 1998-2000 | 84 |
| 47. International Turnover Of Tricon Global Restaurants, 1997-2000 | 85 |
| 48. Financial Summary Of Whitbread, 1997-2001 | 87 |
| 49. Financial Summary Of Whitbread, By Division, 2000 And 2001 | 88 |
| LIST OF DIAGRAMS | |
| 1. The UK Market For Fast Food, By Sector, 1997-2006 | 2 |
| 2. Proportional Importance Of The Main Sectors Of The UK Market For Fast Food, By Sector, 2002 | 27 |
KEY FINDINGS -
The value of the UK market for fast food increased by 30 percent during the review period reach a value of £7.92 billion (12.91 billion) in 2001. -
The largest sector of the UK fast food market during the review period was the sandwich sector, which accounted for 40 percent of the UK fast food market in 2001. -
The hamburger sector is the second largest sector of the fast food market, estimated to have increased significantly since 1997. Moreover, the sector is forecast to grow by some 13 percent in real terms between 2002 and 2006. -
The UK market for pizza and pasta is estimated to have increased throughout the review period, rising by some 14 percent between 1997 and 2001. MSI believe that this sector will continue to show significant growth during the forecast period as a result of increasing demand for home delivery and online ordering. -
MSI believe that the fish and chip sector will grow marginally during the forecast period, increasing by some 5 percent in real terms between 2002 and 2006. - The value of the chicken fast food market increased 45 percent during the review period.
MSI believe that the significant increases are largely attributed to consumers switching to chicken because it is perceived as a healthy fast food option. -
In the ethnic food sector the Mexican food sector is expected to achieve significant growth between 2002 and 2006. Indeed, the sector is expected to rise by 31 percent in real terms during the forecast period. -
The soup sector increased by 10 percent between 1998 and 2001. MSI believe that this is a reflection of UK lifestyle changes that have resulted in a more health-conscious population. Indeed, soup is perceived as containing natural ingredients, making it a healthy alternative to other types of fast food. The sector is expected to increase by some 32 percent in real terms between 2002 and 2006 as a result of promotional activity and increased consumer awareness of soup as a fast food option. -
The development of the UK fast food market is summarised in the following diagram:
Text © 2002MSI
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Last updated by Amanda Porteous April 2002