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MS15000 MSI FAST FOOD: UK: DECEMBER 2000

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of Contents
1 Executive Summary 1
2 INTRODUCTION 3
2.1 Definitions 3
2.2 Methodology 4
2.3 UK Economy 5
2.3.1 Interest Rates 6
2.3.2 Inflation 7
2.3.3 Exchange Rates 7
2.3.4 Taxation 8
2.3.5 Household Income and Consumer Expenditure 9
2.3.6 Manufacturing Output 10
2.3.7 Services 11
2.3.8 Investment 11
2.3.9 Forecasts 12
2.4 Exchange Rates 13
2.5 Abbreviations 13
3 MARKEt OVERVIEW 15
3.1 Market Size And Trends, 1996-2000 15
3.2 Market Segmentation 18
3.3 Factors Affecting Demand 21
3.3.1 Overview 21
3.3.2 Consumer Expenditure 21
3.3.3 Demographic Trends 23
3.3.4 Lifestyle Trends 25
3.3.5 Competitive Products 26
3.4 Forecast Segmentation, 2001-2005 27
4 SANDWICHES 30
4.1 Market Overview, 1996-2000 30
4.2 Market Forecasts, 2001-2005 31
4.3 Distribution 33
4.4 Company Profiles 34
4.4.1 Aroma 34
4.4.2 Pret a Manger 35
5 HAMBURGERS 36
5.1 Market Overview,1996-2000 36
5.2 Market Forecasts, 2001-2005 37
5.3 Distribution 39
5.4 Company Profiles 39
5.4.1 Burger King 39
5.4.2 McDonald’s Restaurants 40
6 PIZZA AND PASTA 42
6.1 Market Overview,1996-2000 42
6.2 Market Forecasts, 2001-2005 43
6.3 Distribution 44
6.4 Company Profiles 44
6.4.1 Domino’s Pizza Group 44
6.4.2 Perfect Pizza 45
6.4.3 PizzaExpress 47
6.4.4 Pizza Hut (UK) 48
7 FISH AND CHIPS 50
7.1 Market Overview, 1996-2000 50
7.2 Market Forecasts, 2001-2005 52
7.3 Distribution 52
7.4 Company Profiles 53
7.4.1 Harry Ramsden’s 53
8 fried chicken 55
8.1 Market Overview, 1996-2000 55
8.2 Market Forecasts, 2001-2005 56
8.3 Distribution 56
8.4 Company Profiles 57
8.4.1 Kentucky Fried Chicken (Great Britain) 57
9 ETHNIC FAST FOOD 59
9.1 Market Overview, 1996-2000 59
9.2 Chinese And Indian Take-Away Meals 59
9.3 Mexican, Japanese and Thai Take-Away Meals 61
9.4 Market Forecasts, 2001-2005 62
9.5 Distribution 64
10 SOUP 66
10.1 Market Overview, 1998-2000 66
10.2 Market Forecasts, 2001-2005 66
10.3 Distribution 67
10.4 Company Profiles 68
10.4.1 Soup Opera 68
10.4.2 Soup Works 69
10.4.3 The New Covent Garden Soup Company 69
11 critical success factors 71
12 opportunities for suppliers 74
13 INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 78
13.1 Overview 78
13.2 Company Profiles 78
13.2.1 Compass Group 78
13.2.2 Diageo 80
13.2.3 Tricon Global Restaurants 81
13.2.4 Whitbread 82
14 MAGAZINES 85
15 Trade AssociationS 87
List of Tables
1.     Economic Indicators On The UK Economy, 1995-2002 6
2.     The UK Market For Fast Food, 1996-2000 15
3.     Average Weekly Expenditure On Take-Away Food, By Sector And Age Group, 1999 16
4.     Average Weekly Expenditure On Take-Away Food In The UK, By Region, 1999 17
5.     The UK Market For Fast Food, By Sector, 1996-2000 20
6.     Proportional Importance Of The Sectors Of The UK Market For Fast Food, By Sector, 1996-2000 21
7.     Changes In Real Personal Disposable Income In The UK, 1996-2000 22
8.     Household Expenditure On Eating Out In The UK, 1996-2000 23
9.     UK Population, By Age Group, 1999-2021 24
10.  Forecast UK Market For Fast Food, By Sector, 2001-2005 28
11.  The UK Market For Sandwiches, 1996-2000 30
12.  Forecast UK Market For Sandwiches, 2001-2005 31
13.  Financial Summary Of Aroma, 1997-1999 34
14.  The UK Market For Hamburgers, 1996-2000 36
15.  Forecast UK Market For Hamburgers, 2001-2005 38
16.  Financial Summary Of McDonald’s Restaurants, 1995-1999 40
17.  The UK Market For Pizza And Pasta, 1996-2000 42
18.  Forecast UK Market For Pizza And Pasta, 2001-2005 43
19.  Financial Summary Of Domino’s Pizza Group, 1997-1999 45
20.  Financial Summary Of Perfect Pizza, 1997-1999 46
21.  Financial Summary Of PizzaExpress, 1996-2000 48
22.  Financial Summary Of Pizza Hut (UK), 1995-1999 49
23.  The UK Market For Fish And Chips, 1996-2000 50
24.  Number Of Fish And Chip Shops In The UK, 1980, 1990 And 2000 51
25.  Forecast UK Market For Fish And Chips, 2001-2005 52
26.  Financial Summary Of Harry Ramsden's Restaurant sector, 1995-1999 54
27.  The UK Market For Fried Chicken, 1996-2000 55
28.  Forecast UK Market For Fried Chicken, 2001-2005 56
29.  Financial Summary Of Kentucky Fried Chicken (Great Britain), 1995-1999 58
30.  The UK Market For Chinese Take-Away Meals, 1996-2000 59
31.  The UK Market For Indian Take-Away Meals, 1996-2000 60
32.  Number Of Indian Restaurants In The UK, 1960-1998 61
33.  The UK Market For Mexican Take-Away Food, 1999 And 2000 62
34.  Forecast UK Market For Chinese Take-Away Meals, 2001-2005 63
35.  Forecast UK Market For Indian Take-Away Meals, 2001-2005 63
36.  Forecast UK Market For Mexican Take-Away Food, 2001-2005 64
37.  The UK Market For Take-Away Soup, 1998-2000 66
38.  Forecast UK Market For Take-Away Soup, 2001-2005 67
39.  Financial Summary Of Soup Opera, 1998-2000 68
40.  Financial Summary Of The New Covent Garden Soup Company, 1998 And 1999 70
41.  Financial Summary Of Compass Group, 1995-1999 79
42.  Number Of Branded Outlets Operated By Compass Group, By Brand, 1999 80
43.  Financial Summary Of Diageo, 1998-2000 81
44.  International Turnover Of Tricon Global Restaurants, 1997-1999 82
45.  Financial Summary Of Whitbread, 1996-2000 83
46.  Financial Summary Of Whitbread, By Division, 1999 And 2000 84

List of Diagrams
1.     Proportional Importance Of The Main Sectors Of The UK Market For Fast Food, By Sector, 2001 29

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

MSI believe that the value of the UK fast food market increased by some 37 percent between 1996 and 2000. However, the performance of the individual sectors within the market varied significantly during the review period

MSI have identified the following as the main factors affecting demand for fast food within the UK:

· consumer expenditure
· demographic trends
· lifestyle trends
· competitive products

The largest sector within the UK fast food market is the sandwich sector, representing some 42 percent of the total UK fast food market in 2000. MSI believe that the growth rates experienced in the sandwich sector are a result of the trend towards more healthy diets and an increase in the level of innovation which has been introduced to the sector. This sector is however, becoming saturated and MSI forecast that growth within the sector will begin to slow down before the end of the forecast period, although overall growth will be some 15 percent between 2001 and 2005.

The hamburger market is the second largest sector of the fast food market. MSI believe that the hamburger market has recovered despite the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy scare in 1995. Indeed, the market is estimated to have increased by some 48 percent between 1996 and 2000 and has remained stable in terms of proportional importance of the total fast food market between 1997 and 2000. The pizza and pasta market is estimated to have reached a value of £920 million (€1.5 billion) in 2000.

Competition is expected to increase within the sector as the number of new companies emerging in the sector rises. MSI believe that this sector will continue to show the most significant growth of the traditional fast food sectors throughout the forecast period as a result of increasing demand for home delivery and the increase in online ordering.

The ethnic food sector is facing increased competition as consumers demand a wider variety of international foods due to increased awareness arising from an increase in international travel. The most buoyant sector within the ethnic food market is the relatively new Mexican sector. MSI estimate the value of the Mexican food sector to be £86 million (€144 million) 2000.

MSI believe that a number of opportunities for suppliers exist within the fast food market as a result of an increase in the number of fast food outlets, legislation, changes in technology and changes in consumer demand. Indeed, major potential exists in the development of innovative packaging, particularly for the Chinese and Indian sectors which are diversifying their services to provide chilled meals which require packaging to prolong the shelf life of the food.

Text © 2000 MSI

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