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MP60021
MAPS PUBLIC TRANSPORT MARCH 2001
Overview

Editor: Market Assessment
ISBN: 1-86111-340-4

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary


1. Introduction


2. Strategic Overview

Market Dynamics and Segmentation
Table 1: Journey Stages and Distance Travelled Per Person Per Year: 1995/1997-1997/1999
(billion passenger kilometres and percent), 1996-2000e
1995/1996-1999/2000
Public Transport Market
Table 4: Passenger Receipts on Surface Public Transport (£m and percent), 1995/1996-1999/2000
Table 5: Passenger Journeys on Surface Public Transport, (million) 1995/1996-1999/2000
(million) 1995/1996-1999/2000
Competitive Structure
The Consumer
Market Forecasts


3. Buses

background
market size
(£m and percent), 1995/1996-1999/2000
Local Bus and Coach Market Size by Region
Kilometres (million and percent), 1995/1996-1999/2000
Table 8: Local Bus and Coach Services Market by Region (£m and percent), 1995/1996-1999/2000
Journeys by Region (million and percent),1995/1996-1999/2000
Table 10: Local Bus and Coach Services Supply by Vehicle Kilometres by Region (million and percent), 1995/1996-1999/2000
Local Bus and Coach Market Size by Regions of England
Table 11: Local Bus and Coach Services Market by Regions in England (£m and percent), 1995/1996-1999/2000
England (£m), 1995/1996-1999/2000
Table 12: Demand for Local Bus and Coach Services by Passenger Journeys by Regions in England (million and percent),1995/1996-1999/2000
Journeys by Regions in England (million), 1995/1996-1999/2000
Public Support for Bus Services by Region
1995/1996-1999/2000
Table 14: Public Transport Support for Local Buses by Region (£m and percent), 1995/1996-1999/2000
Consumer Trends
Table 15: Frequency of Use of Local Buses ( percent), 1998/1999
by Region (miles per person per year), 1997/1999
Table 17: Opinions on Bus Use, 2001
Marketing Activity
Product
Table 18: Bus and Coach Vehicle Stock (000), 1995/1996-1999/2000
Figure 4: Bus and Coach Vehicle Stock (000), 1995/1996-1999/2000
Price
Table 19: Fare Indices By Region (1995=100), 1995/1996-1999/2000
Figure 5: Fare Indices By Region (1995=100), 1995/1996-1999/2000
Operating Costs
Kilometre (1995=100), 1995/1996-1999/2000
Kilometre (1995=100), 1995/1996-1999/2000
Figure 7: Staff Employed (000s), 1995/1996-1999/2000
Table 21: Staff Employed (000 and percent), 1995/1996-1999/2000


4. Rail Travel

Background
Market Size
Britain (£m), 1995/1996-1999/2000
Britain (million and percent), 1995/1996-1999/2000
Britain (£m), 1995/1996-1999/2000
(£m), 1995/1996-1999/2000
(£m), 1995/1996-1999/2000
Consumer Trends
Table 26: Frequency of Use of Surface Rail Public Transport ( percent), 1998/1999
Figure 9: Frequency of Use of Surface Rail Public Transport ( percent), 1998/1999
Table 27: Average Distance Travelled on Rail Services by Selected Regions (miles per person per year), 1997/99
Table 28: Opinions on Train Use, 2001
Table 29: Opinions on Future Rail Use and Safety, 2001
Marketing Activity
(number of miles and percent), 1997-2000
Journeys (million and percent), 1989-99/2000
Table 32: Cancelled Trains by Rail Franchise, 1999/2000
Figure 10: Cancelled Trains by Rail Franchise, 1999/2000


5. Taxis

Background
Table 34: Taxis and Taxi Drivers (000), 1994, 1997 and 1999
Consumer Trends
Table 35: Personal Use of Taxis and Minicabs, 1992/1994-1997/1999
Table 36: Frequency of Use of Taxis and Minicabs ( percent), 1998/1999
Figure 11: Frequency of Use of Taxis and Minicabs ( percent), 1998/1999
Region (miles per person per year), 1997/1999
Region (miles per person per year), 1997/1999


6. An International Perspective

by Passenger Kilometres ( percent), 1998
Performed on Buses, Trams and Railways (billion pkms), 1994-1998


7. PEST Analysis

Political factors
Economic Factors
Social factors
Technological Factors


8. Consumer Dynamics

Table 39: Opinions on the State of Public Transport, 2001
Table 40: Opinions on Changing Public Transport Funding, 2001
Table 41: Opinions on Public Transport Ownership and Policy, 2001
Table 42: Opinions on Cars and Public Transport, 2001
Table 43: Opinions on Private Car Use, 2001


9. Supplier Profiles

Connex Rail Ltd
National Express Group Ltd
First Group Plc
The Go Ahead Group Plc
stagecoach holdings PLC
Virgin RAIL group
Arriva Plc
Sea Containers Ltd
Delgro Corporation


10. The Future

Transport (million), 2000-2004


12. Sources

Glossary of Terms
Specific definitions
DETR
PTC
PKMS
SRA
General Definitions
Above-the-Line or Main Media Expenditure
Annual Growth Rate
Advertising
Cif
Constant Prices
Current Prices
Fob
Forecasts
MSP
‘Real’
RSP
About the Sources Used
ACNielsen MMS
Prodcom
NOP
Trade Association Data
Trade Sources

Key Note Research

The Range of Reports

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report provides an overview and analysis of land-based public transport in Great Britain. Public transport competes with private travel for the movement of passengers. For most of the century through to the 1990s, the share of passenger travel accounted for by public transport declined. Despite the continued rise in the penetration of households that have one or more cars, public transport has marginally increased its share of travel demand during the 1990s measured in terms of passenger kilometres.

This report examines the transformation of land-based public transport in Great Britain since the early 1980s. This report also looks at how this transformation has slowed down the erosion in demand for public transport, so much so that there has actually been a revival in the use of public transport. The processes of privatisation, deregulation, industry concentration and competition have worked to improve the provision of public transport in Great Britain, although commissioned research outlined in the report reveals that over half of the adult population believes that the standard of public transport in the UK is poor. A similar level of the population believes the public transport network is underfunded. In the last decade, funding for buses has declined while funding for the rail network has increased, in real terms. However, government support for the national rail network has declined since the railway was privatised, in 1996 and 1997, into 25 train operating companies.

The Government’s White Paper on Transport published in May 1998 established a framework for the development of a transport infrastructure that would favour public rather than private transport. The legislative requirements to implement many of the necessary changes to achieve this end were detailed in the Transport Act 2000. Much of the change will come through the implementation of local transport plans. These were reviewed by the Government in 2000, and the first tranche of support for some initiatives within the schemes were given approval by the end of that year. Although much of the public transport industry is privatised, the implementation of local transport plans will bring commercial public transport service providers closer to communities, as has already been witnessed through the development of Quality Partnerships and Contracts with local authorities.

The local bus sector is further along the path towards achieving a fully commercially competitive environment than the national rail network, but it is recognised that integrated transport measures, local authority and central government support is required to sustain and build on the progress made since deregulation of the sector. Although there is still a high number of small bus and coach service providers, the local bus service market is mature and the industry is approaching optimum levels of concentration.

There is likely to be some further concentration in the local bus sector, but growth for integrated transport operators will be driven by: investment in joint venture infrastructure schemes; further integration with other modes of transport; and overseas growth. The top five bus and coach operators have interests in other forms of transport and developments overseas.

The scope for normal industrial concentration processes is less for the train operating companies, as the franchisees were given between 5 and 15 years from the date the franchise was awarded. Nevertheless, the acquisition of some of the franchise owners by other transport operators and cross shareholdings is leading to further concentration in the industry. As franchises come up for renewal and new franchises are reformulated, it is likely that the number of franchisees will decline, and most of these will be integrated transport operators with interests in both bus and rail services in the UK and overseas.

While the political and industrial framework of public transport is set for expansion for the long term good of the environment, many consumers seem reluctant to take positive action. An opinion poll conducted by National Opinion Poll (NOP) for Key Note during February 2001 showed that more people prefer to use private cars when they can than those who support increased government funding for public transport or would like to see cars banned in city centres.

Many commentators believe that improvements to public transport will only have a marginal effect on the transition from private to public transport. For any radical change in use, private cars will need to banned from city centres and elsewhere. This will only be acceptable if suitable public transport initiatives are in place. There are some Quality Partnerships and Contracts which demonstrate that public transport patronage can be increased dramatically, but how successful the wholesale transfer from private to public transport is depends on political will, backing from the industry and the public at large taking on green issues more wholeheartedly.

Text © 2001 MAPS

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Last updated by Paul Tucker 22nd August 2001