In spite of increased costs, threatened road pricing and motorway tolls, traffic limitation policies, cutbacks in road building leading to mounting congestion, growing car-related crime and an increasingly active anti-roads lobby, the love affair with the motor car continues. The statement that "motoring enhances the quality of life" found in the Royal Automobile Club 1995 Report will find widespread support.

The fate and fortunes of the UK vehicle recovery industry are inextricably linked to those of the total car industry, as the motoring organisations are, in providing breakdown assistance and recovery, at the end of a chain which runs from manufacturer via franchised dealers, fleet operators, rental companies and used car dealers to the end-user - the motorist. The policies and practices of all these intervening agencies influence the number, age profile and condition of the national car stock at any given time, all factors that materially affect the providers of recovery services.

The modern motor car achieves a high degree of reliability and at the end of 1995, a majority of cars on the road could be regarded as modern with 44 percent less than six years old and 17 percent less than two years old. Nonetheless, this leaves a substantial and increasing proportion over six years old and prone to breakdown. Fear and apprehension at the consequences of possible breakdown remain high particularly among women either driving alone or with children, and among motorway users acutely aware that the modern motorway is a hostile environment for anything but a moving vehicle. Providing comfort and reassurance is the function, and main plank of the marketing platforms of the recovery organisations.

The success of these organisations is illustrated by both the massive growth in membership of motoring organisation - 21.5 million in 1995 - and the market penetration achieved by relative newcomers, notably Green Flag National Breakdown, followed by Mondial Assistance, Europ Assistance and Britannia Rescue. The strong base established by these organisations has come partly from taking members from the longer established recovery operators the AA and RAC, but also from targeting new market sectors, devising innovative packages at competitive rates with imaginative promotion. This has had a revitalising affect on the entire sector with the traditionalist operators now fighting back.

The growth of the vehicle breakdown recovery industry over recent years has been, in its most fundamental form, a direct response to the number of cars in use. The ten years from 1985 saw a growth rate of 2.54 percent a year, a total of 28.6 percent resulting in a total of 21.39 million cars at the end of 1995. During the recessionary early 1990s growth moderated somewhat at 1.36 percent each year. Registrations of new cars directly reflect economic cycles and the motor industry is regarded by the government and analysts as a barometer of the economic well being of the nation. Thus the October 1996 registration of 154,733 vehicles, an increase of 13.27 percent on 1995 figures, was greeted with relief by the industry after disappointing figures in August and September.

An overall perspective is gained, however, from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders estimate that total registrations for 1996 will be some 2.1 million, far short of the 1989 peak of 2.3 million. Intense competition between car manufacturers and franchised dealers has made it commonplace for motoring organisation membership to be included as an inducement towards the purchase of new cars.

The extent to which the industry has succeeded in becoming established in the public consciousness is illustrated by research carried out for MAPS by the National Opinion Poll (NOP) Research Group Limited. This shows not only widespread awareness of the vehicle recovery industry, but broad consensus as to the validity of the various services offered.

While the main battle between motoring organisations is fought over individual memberships, equally intense competition takes place for contracts with manufacturers. The RAC currently lead the field in this area with agreements with, among many others, Ford, Renault, Jaguar, Mercedes and Volvo. AA contracts include Vauxhall, Rover, Peugeot, Fiat, Honda Landrover and the "direct-sell" manufacturer Daewoo. Green Flag cover Rolls Royce and Citreon while Mondial Assistance list BMW, Volkswagen and Porsche.

Demographic factors will increasingly influence motoring organisation marketing and membership. Clearly, more mature age groups will have both a tendency towards prudence and the discretionary income to purchase the peace of mind gained from remaining in membership or to newly join a motoring organisation. The increase in population predicted by the year 2005 will be mainly in the 35-64 age group, with, initially at least, potential benefits for the motoring organisations. In the longer term, however, much will depend upon economic factors, including the degree of affluence retained after retirement. Similarly, the recovery industry has responded to the growth in the multi-car household by offering family packages, reduced rates for second cars, cover for an individual in any vehicle and priority response for women drivers. This last factor, heavily promoted with television commercials, certainly heightened awareness but some saw the campaign as counter productive in being over dramatic and alarmist.

Fully expensed company cars remain a significant sector, as virtually all include membership, seen both as a business need and part of the benefits package to the user. The harsher tax regime imposed in recent years has seen the company car become less attractive to all but high milage business users. While the total number of company cars is in decline, the number in legitimate business use remains considerable. These drivers see themselves in urgent need of assistance and restored mobility in the event of a breakdown.

As distances travelled for work, family and domestic commitments and leisure activities have increased, dependence upon the car has grown massively in recent years. For some this is a reflection of their reality; public transport offers no reasonable alternative. For others it may be more a question of perception and preference. Perhaps two generations have now grown to maturity never ever having experience life without the independence and flexibility provided by the constant availability of a car. For this sector, the retention of car ownership is seen as vital with the continued, uninterrupted usage promised by motoring organisation membership also a high priority.

The vehicle recovery industry has responded to their needs, with marketing offers such as reduced membership fees for payment by regular direct debit, together with a widening range of options including return to home base of car, driver and passengers, onward travel to original destination, replacement hire car or overnight accommodation and perhaps most notably, home starts. This reflects the fact that in recent years there has been a developing tendency for cars to be used for mainly local milage, involving shorter and shorter journeys.

The total recovery market has grown from some £900 million in 1991 to £1.106 million in 1995. While growth in membership numbers is expected to continue, it is probable that revenue growth will not keep pace due to intense competition restricting increases in membership fees. The practice of maintaining rates year on year as done by the AA for 1993-94 and Britannia Rescue for 1995-96 may well be repeated. The degree of competition is also reflected by the advertising spends of the five main organisations the AA, RAC, Green Flag, Britannia and Mondial which in 1995 amounted to almost £16 million. In spite of this, some 40 percent of motorists remain outside membership of any motoring organisation, future competitive activities will be targeted at these, along with measures to maintain membership renewals at the highest possible level, driving the market to a predicted £1,500 million by 2005.

Beyond this, the situation is unclear as the future of the vehicle recovery industry is part of a far greater dilemma. The car industry is, at present and for the foreseeable future, vital to the economy and seen by government as a major jobs provider and source of inward investment. But as time passes, the question of how long the right to individual car ownership and totally unregulated usage can be sustained will become more pressing.

A November 1996 report from the RAC predicts that by 2005, rush-hour congestion will prevail throughout the day with increasing periods of virtual standstill in and around London, the South-East, the West Midlands and the North-West. An accompanying RAC statement said:

"Personal mobility may become a thing of the past if these forecasts are realised. Restricted lifestyles will become a major political issue."