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MAPS : Market Forecasts A-Z: January 2004

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This report covers: Market Forecasts A-Z

BRIEF DESCRIPTION

Drawing on proprietary research reports published during the preceding year, this publication assesses major market trends and the likely pace of future development in 37 key markets, including consumer goods and services, financial services, the utilities, selected segments of the retail trade and target demographic markets. Five-year forecasts are presented for the overall market and for selected market segments, where appropriate.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Activity Holidays 1
INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................................1
DEFINITION.....................................................................................................................................1
Activity Holidays ...............................................................................................................................1
Supplying Sectors.............................................................................................................................2
FORECASTS.....................................................................................................................................3
Domestic Activity Holidays...............................................................................................................3
Table 1: The Forecast UK Domestic Holidays Market by Volume and Value
(million trips, % and £bn), 2003-2007 ............................................................................................3
Overseas Activity Holidays ...............................................................................................................4
Table 2: The Forecast UK Overseas Holiday Market by Volume and Value
(million trips, % and £bn), 2003-2007.............................................................................................4
Advertising Agencies 5
INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................................5
DEFINITIONS...................................................................................................................................5
Agency Job Functions......................................................................................................................6
Account Management.....................................................................................................................6
Account Planning .............................................................................................................................6
Media Analyst ..................................................................................................................................7
Media Buyer.....................................................................................................................................7
Media Planner..................................................................................................................................7
Creative — Art Director/Designer/Artworker/Copywriter..............................................................7
FORECASTS.....................................................................................................................................8
Table 3: Forecast UK Advertising Expenditure by Medium at Current Prices
(£m), 2002, 2005 and 2010.............................................................................................................10
Alternative Healthcare 11
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................11
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................11
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................12
Table 4: Forecast UK Retail Sales of Herbal and Homeopathic Remedies
and Aromatherapy Products (£m at rsp), 2003-2007....................................................................13
Baby Products 14
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................14
DEFINITIONS.................................................................................................................................14
Baby Transport and Furniture........................................................................................................14
Baby Monitors, Safety and Feeding Equipment ...........................................................................14
Disposable Nappies........................................................................................................................14
FORECASTS ...................................................................................................................................15
Table 5: The Forecast UK Baby Products Market (£m at rsp), 2003-2007....................................15
Call Centres 16
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................16
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................16
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................17
Table 6: Forecasts for Call/Contact Centres† in the UK (number), 2004-2008 ............................17
Charity Funding 19
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................19
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................19
FORECASTS ...................................................................................................................................20
Childcare 22
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................22
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................22
Types of Childcare ..........................................................................................................................22
Day Nurseries .................................................................................................................................22
Childminders ..................................................................................................................................22
Playgroups or Pre-Schools..............................................................................................................23
Nursery Schools and Classes ...........................................................................................................23
Nannies...........................................................................................................................................23
Out-of-School Childcare .................................................................................................................23
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................23
Table 7: The Forecast UK Population Aged 0-8 Years Old by Individual
Age Group (000 and %), 2003-2007..............................................................................................24
Table 8: The Forecast UK Childcare Market by Value (£m), 2003-2007.......................................25
Figure 1: The Forecast UK Childcare Market by Value (£m), 2003-2007 .....................................26
Condiments and Sauces 27
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................27
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................27
Table Sauces...................................................................................................................................27
Salad Accompaniments ..................................................................................................................27
Pickles, Chutneys and Relishes .......................................................................................................27
Dish-Specific Sauces ........................................................................................................................28
Salt and Pepper..............................................................................................................................28
Vinegar...........................................................................................................................................28
Mustard..........................................................................................................................................28
Marinades ......................................................................................................................................28
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................28
Table 9: The Forecast UK Condiments and Sauces Market by Sector by Value
at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 2003-2007 .......................................................................................29
Cooking and Eating 30
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................30
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................31
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................31
Customer Relationship Management 33
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................33
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................33
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................34
Figure 2: The Forecast Worldwide Market for CRM Applications ($bn), 2002–2007 .................34
Customer Services in Financial Organisations 35
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................35
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................35
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................36
Table 10: The Forecast Turnover of the Top 20 Independent Financial Advisers
in the UK (£m and index 2003=100), 2003-2007...........................................................................36
Table 11: Forecast Long-Term Insurance Business by Source
of New Regular Premiums (%), 2003-2007 ...................................................................................36
Table 12: Forecast Private-Sector Deposits in UK Banks by Value
(£m and index 2003=100), 2003-2007 ...........................................................................................37
Table 13: Forecast Number of Bank Branches of the MBBG in Great Britain
(number and index 2003=100), 2003-2007 ...................................................................................37
Table 14: Forecast Deposits in UK Building Societies by Value
(£m and index 2003=100), 2003-2007 ...........................................................................................38
Table 15: Forecast UK Long-Term Insurance Premium Income
by Net Written Premium by Value (£m and index 2003=100), 2003-2007..................................38
Table 16: Forecast UK General Insurance Net Written Premiums by UK Risks
Net Written Premium by Value (£m and index 2003=100), 2003-2007.......................................39
Direct Insurance 40
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................40
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................40
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................40
General Insurance..........................................................................................................................40
Table 17: Forecast General Insurance (Personal Lines) Business
by Gross Written Premium and Source of Business (£m and %), 2003-2007 ..............................41
Figure 3: Forecast General Insurance (Personal Lines) Business
by Gross Written Premium (£m), 2003-2007 .................................................................................42
Motor Insurance .............................................................................................................................42
Table 18: Forecast Motor Insurance Business by Gross Written Premium
and Source of Business (£m and %), 2003-2007 ...........................................................................43
Figure 4: Forecast Motor Insurance Business by Gross Written Premium (£m), 2003-2007 .......44
House Insurance.............................................................................................................................44
Table 19: Forecast Household Insurance Business by Gross Written Premium
and Source of Business (£m and %), 2003-2007 ...........................................................................45
Figure 5: Forecast Household Insurance Business by Gross Written Premium
(£m), 2003-2007 ..............................................................................................................................46
European Long-Term Insurance 47
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................47
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................47
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................48
Table 20: Forecast Total Direct Life Premium Income of CEA Members
(€m and index 2003=100), 2003-2007...........................................................................................48
FSM to Start-Up Businesses and the Self-Employed 49
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................49
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................49
Financial Services ............................................................................................................................49
The Self-Employed.........................................................................................................................49
Small Businesses.............................................................................................................................50
Table 21: European Commission Definitions of Business Categories
by Number of Staff, Turnover and Balance Sheet Total (€m), 2003...........................................50
FORECASTS ...................................................................................................................................50
FSM to the Retired and Elderly 52
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................52
Subject............................................................................................................................................52
Objectives.......................................................................................................................................52
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................53
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................53
Factors Affecting the Market.........................................................................................................53
Solvency Regulations.....................................................................................................................53
Equity Release Regulations ............................................................................................................53
Concentration in the Life Market..................................................................................................54
Risk and the Claims Culture ...........................................................................................................54
Future of the Housing Market.......................................................................................................54
Demographics ................................................................................................................................54
Table 22: Summary of Age Groups in the UK (million and %), 1961-2026.................................55
The Grey Market of the Future......................................................................................................55
Profile of the 70s Moving Into 80s ...............................................................................................55
Profile of the 60s Moving Into 70s ...............................................................................................55
Profile of the 50s Moving Into 60s ...............................................................................................55
Profile of the 40s Moving Into 50s ...............................................................................................56
Economic Consequences ................................................................................................................56
The Economy..................................................................................................................................56
Table 23: Key UK Forecasts for 2002-2004 ...................................................................................57
Pensions and Income......................................................................................................................57
The Insurance Industry ...................................................................................................................58
Solvency..........................................................................................................................................58
New Directions and Products.........................................................................................................58
Branches and the ‘Human Touch’..................................................................................................59
Marketing Directions.....................................................................................................................59
Companies to Watch ......................................................................................................................59
Europe............................................................................................................................................59
Forecourt Retailing 61
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................61
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................61
Fuel Retailing .................................................................................................................................61
Non-Fuel Retailing.........................................................................................................................61
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................61
Table 24: The Forecast UK Forecourt Retailing Market by Type of Sale
by Value (£bn at rsp and index 1998=100), 2003-2007 ................................................................62
Independent Financial Advisers 63
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................63
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................63
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................64
IFA Share of Market Sectors...........................................................................................................64
Table 25: Possible Scenario for IFA Share Using a Polarised Paradigm
(£bn and %), 2003-2007.................................................................................................................64
Table 26: Possible Scenario for IFA and Multi-Tied Market Share
in a Post-Depolarised Industry (£bn and %), 2003-2007..............................................................65
Low-Fat & Low-Sugar Foods 66
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................66
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................66
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................66
Table 27: The Forecast UK Low-Fat/Low-Sugar Foods Market by Value (£m), 2003-2007 .........67
Marketing in the Digital Age 68
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................68
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................68
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................69
Marketing to Children 4-11 71
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................71
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................71
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................71
Toys and Games ..............................................................................................................................71
Table 28: The Forecast UK Toys and Games Market by Sector by Value
(£m at rsp), 2003-2007.....................................................................38
Table 15: Forecast UK Long-Term Insurance Premium Income
by Net Written Premium by Value (£m and index 2003=100), 2003-2007..................................38
Table 16: Forecast UK General Insurance Net Written Premiums by UK Risks
Net Written Premium by Value (£m and index 2003=100), 2003-2007.......................................39
Direct Insurance 40
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................40
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................40
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................40
General Insurance..........................................................................................................................40
Table 17: Forecast General Insurance (Personal Lines) Business
by Gross Written Premium and Source of Business (£m and %), 2003-2007 ..............................41
Figure 3: Forecast General Insurance (Personal Lines) Business
by Gross Written Premium (£m), 2003-2007 .................................................................................42
Motor Insurance .............................................................................................................................42
Table 18: Forecast Motor Insurance Business by Gross Written Premium
and Source of Business (£m and %), 2003-2007 ...........................................................................43
Figure 4: Forecast Motor Insurance Business by Gross Written Premium (£m), 2003-2007 .......44
House Insurance.............................................................................................................................44
Table 19: Forecast Household Insurance Business by Gross Written Premium
and Source of Business (£m and %), 2003-2007 ...........................................................................45
Figure 5: Forecast Household Insurance Business by Gross Written Premium
(£m), 2003-2007 ..............................................................................................................................46
European Long-Term Insurance 47
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................47
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................47
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................48
Table 20: Forecast Total Direct Life Premium Income of CEA Members
(€m and index 2003=100), 2003-2007...........................................................................................48
FSM to Start-Up Businesses and the Self-Employed 49
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................49
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................49
Financial Services ............................................................................................................................49
The Self-Employed.........................................................................................................................49
Small Businesses.............................................................................................................................50
Table 21: European Commission Definitions of Business Categories
by Number of Staff, Turnover and Balance Sheet Total (€m), 2003...........................................50
FORECASTS ...................................................................................................................................50
FSM to the Retired and Elderly 52
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................52
Subject............................................................................................................................................52
Objectives.......................................................................................................................................52
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................53
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................53
Factors Affecting the Market.........................................................................................................53
Solvency Regulations.....................................................................................................................53
Equity Release Regulations ............................................................................................................53
Concentration in the Life Market..................................................................................................54
Risk and the Claims Culture ...........................................................................................................54
Future of the Housing Market.......................................................................................................54
Demographics ................................................................................................................................54
Table 22: Summary of Age Groups in the UK (million and %), 1961-2026.................................55
The Grey Market of the Future......................................................................................................55
Profile of the 70s Moving Into 80s ...............................................................................................55
Profile of the 60s Moving Into 70s ...............................................................................................55
Profile of the 50s Moving Into 60s ...............................................................................................55
Profile of the 40s Moving Into 50s ...............................................................................................56
Economic Consequences ................................................................................................................56
The Economy..................................................................................................................................56
Table 23: Key UK Forecasts for 2002-2004 ...................................................................................57
Pensions and Income......................................................................................................................57
The Insurance Industry ...................................................................................................................58
Solvency..........................................................................................................................................58
New Directions and Products.........................................................................................................58
Branches and the ‘Human Touch’..................................................................................................59
Marketing Directions.....................................................................................................................59
Companies to Watch ......................................................................................................................59
Europe............................................................................................................................................59
Forecourt Retailing 61
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................61
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................61
Fuel Retailing .................................................................................................................................61
Non-Fuel Retailing.........................................................................................................................61
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................61
Table 24: The Forecast UK Forecourt Retailing Market by Type of Sale
by Value (£bn at rsp and index 1998=100), 2003-2007 ................................................................62
Independent Financial Advisers 63
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................63
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................63
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................64
IFA Share of Market Sectors...........................................................................................................64
Table 25: Possible Scenario for IFA Share Using a Polarised Paradigm
(£bn and %), 2003-2007.................................................................................................................64
Table 26: Possible Scenario for IFA and Multi-Tied Market Share
in a Post-Depolarised Industry (£bn and %), 2003-2007..............................................................65
Low-Fat & Low-Sugar Foods 66
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................66
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................66
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................66
Table 27: The Forecast UK Low-Fat/Low-Sugar Foods Market by Value (£m), 2003-2007 .........67
Marketing in the Digital Age 68
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................68
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................68
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................69
Marketing to Children 4-11 71
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................71
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................71
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................71
Toys and Games ..............................................................................................................................71
Table 28: The Forecast UK Toys and Games Market by Sector by Value
(£m at rsp), 2003-2007....................................................................................................................72
Snacks and Confectionery ..............................................................................................................72
Snack Foods....................................................................................................................................72
Table 29: The Forecast UK Snack Foods Market by Value
(£m at rsp), 2003-2007....................................................................................................................72
Table 30: The Forecast UK Snack Foods Market by Sector by Value
(£m at rsp), 2003-2007....................................................................................................................73
Confectionery ................................................................................................................................73
Table 31: The Forecast UK Confectionery Market by Sector by Value
(£m at rsp), 2003-2007....................................................................................................................73
Men’s Toiletries & Fragrances 75
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................75
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................75
Toiletries.........................................................................................................................................75
Fragrances ......................................................................................................................................75
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................75
Demographic Trends ......................................................................................................................75
Table 32: The Forecast UK Male Population by Age (000), 2003-2008........................................76
Persuading Men to Change Their Habits ......................................................................................76
Market Size ....................................................................................................................................77
Table 33: The Forecast UK Men’s Toiletries and Fragrances Market
by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp and index 2003=100), 2003-2007.....................................78
Nutraceuticals 79
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................79
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................80
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................80
Table 34: The Forecast UK Nutraceuticals Market by Sector by Value (£m), 2003-2007 ............81
Organic Food 82
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................82
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................82
Genetically-Modified Crops ...........................................................................................................82
MARKET FORECASTS...................................................................................................................83
Table 35: The Forecast UK Organic Foods Market by Value (£m at rsp),
Years Ending April 2004-2008........................................................................................................83
Personal Banking 84
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................84
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................84
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................84
Figure 6: The Forecast UK Personal Banking Market by Value (£bn), 2003-2007.......................85
Personal Lines Insurance 86
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................86
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................86
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................87
General Insurance..........................................................................................................................87
Long-Term Insurance......................................................................................................................87
Personal Loans 88
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................88
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................88
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................88
Shopping Centres 89
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................89
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................89
Covered Shopping Centres.............................................................................................................89
Retail Parks.....................................................................................................................................89
Factory and Designer Outlet Centres ............................................................................................89
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................90
Supermarket Own Labels 91
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................91
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................91
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................91
Table 36: The Forecast UK Grocery Market by Value (£m at rsp and %), 2003-2007.................93
Supermarket Services 94
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................94
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................94
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................94
Teleworking 96
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................96
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................96
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................96
Figure 7: Forecast Number of Teleworkers in the UK (million), 2003-2007................................97
The Impact of the Euro on the Financial-Services Industry 98
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................98
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................98
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................99
Table 37: Comparison of GDP for Eurozone and Non-Eurozone Economies
(annual % change), 2004-2008......................................................................................................99
Table 38: Forecast Net Lending and Borrowing for Eurozone
and Non-Eurozone Economies (% change), 2004-2008 .............................................................100
Table 39: Forecast Unemployment as a Percentage of the Labour Force
in Eurozone and Non-Eurozone Economies, 2004-2008 ............................................................101
The Newspaper Industry 102
INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................102
DEFINITION.................................................................................................................................103
FORECASTS.................................................................................................................................103
Table 40: The Forecast UK Newspaper Market by Value (£m), 2004-2008 ...............................104
The Pet Market 105
INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................105
DEFINITIONS...............................................................................................................................105
Pet Food .......................................................................................................................................105
Pet Accessories ..............................................................................................................................105
Pet Insurance................................................................................................................................106
FORECASTS.................................................................................................................................106
Table 41: The Forecast UK Pet Products Market by Sector by Value
(£m at rsp and index 2003=100), 2003-2007...............................................................................106
Vegetarian Foods 107
INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................107
DEFINITION.................................................................................................................................107
FORECASTS.................................................................................................................................107
Figure 8: The Forecast UK Vegetarian Foods Market by Value (£m), 2003/2004-2007/2008 ...108
Vehicle Breakdown Services 109
INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................109
DEFINITION.................................................................................................................................110
FORECASTS.................................................................................................................................110
Table 42: The Forecast UK Market ..............................38
Table 15: Forecast UK Long-Term Insurance Premium Income
by Net Written Premium by Value (£m and index 2003=100), 2003-2007..................................38
Table 16: Forecast UK General Insurance Net Written Premiums by UK Risks
Net Written Premium by Value (£m and index 2003=100), 2003-2007.......................................39
Direct Insurance 40
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................40
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................40
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................40
General Insurance..........................................................................................................................40
Table 17: Forecast General Insurance (Personal Lines) Business
by Gross Written Premium and Source of Business (£m and %), 2003-2007 ..............................41
Figure 3: Forecast General Insurance (Personal Lines) Business
by Gross Written Premium (£m), 2003-2007 .................................................................................42
Motor Insurance .............................................................................................................................42
Table 18: Forecast Motor Insurance Business by Gross Written Premium
and Source of Business (£m and %), 2003-2007 ...........................................................................43
Figure 4: Forecast Motor Insurance Business by Gross Written Premium (£m), 2003-2007 .......44
House Insurance.............................................................................................................................44
Table 19: Forecast Household Insurance Business by Gross Written Premium
and Source of Business (£m and %), 2003-2007 ...........................................................................45
Figure 5: Forecast Household Insurance Business by Gross Written Premium
(£m), 2003-2007 ..............................................................................................................................46
European Long-Term Insurance 47
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................47
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................47
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................48
Table 20: Forecast Total Direct Life Premium Income of CEA Members
(€m and index 2003=100), 2003-2007...........................................................................................48
FSM to Start-Up Businesses and the Self-Employed 49
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................49
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................49
Financial Services ............................................................................................................................49
The Self-Employed.........................................................................................................................49
Small Businesses.............................................................................................................................50
Table 21: European Commission Definitions of Business Categories
by Number of Staff, Turnover and Balance Sheet Total (€m), 2003...........................................50
FORECASTS ...................................................................................................................................50
FSM to the Retired and Elderly 52
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................52
Subject............................................................................................................................................52
Objectives.......................................................................................................................................52
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................53
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................53
Factors Affecting the Market.........................................................................................................53
Solvency Regulations.....................................................................................................................53
Equity Release Regulations ............................................................................................................53
Concentration in the Life Market..................................................................................................54
Risk and the Claims Culture ...........................................................................................................54
Future of the Housing Market.......................................................................................................54
Demographics ................................................................................................................................54
Table 22: Summary of Age Groups in the UK (million and %), 1961-2026.................................55
The Grey Market of the Future......................................................................................................55
Profile of the 70s Moving Into 80s ...............................................................................................55
Profile of the 60s Moving Into 70s ...............................................................................................55
Profile of the 50s Moving Into 60s ...............................................................................................55
Profile of the 40s Moving Into 50s ...............................................................................................56
Economic Consequences ................................................................................................................56
The Economy..................................................................................................................................56
Table 23: Key UK Forecasts for 2002-2004 ...................................................................................57
Pensions and Income......................................................................................................................57
The Insurance Industry ...................................................................................................................58
Solvency..........................................................................................................................................58
New Directions and Products.........................................................................................................58
Branches and the ‘Human Touch’..................................................................................................59
Marketing Directions.....................................................................................................................59
Companies to Watch ......................................................................................................................59
Europe............................................................................................................................................59
Forecourt Retailing 61
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................61
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................61
Fuel Retailing .................................................................................................................................61
Non-Fuel Retailing.........................................................................................................................61
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................61
Table 24: The Forecast UK Forecourt Retailing Market by Type of Sale
by Value (£bn at rsp and index 1998=100), 2003-2007 ................................................................62
Independent Financial Advisers 63
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................63
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................63
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................64
IFA Share of Market Sectors...........................................................................................................64
Table 25: Possible Scenario for IFA Share Using a Polarised Paradigm
(£bn and %), 2003-2007.................................................................................................................64
Table 26: Possible Scenario for IFA and Multi-Tied Market Share
in a Post-Depolarised Industry (£bn and %), 2003-2007..............................................................65
Low-Fat & Low-Sugar Foods 66
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................66
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................66
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................66
Table 27: The Forecast UK Low-Fat/Low-Sugar Foods Market by Value (£m), 2003-2007 .........67
Marketing in the Digital Age 68
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................68
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................68
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................69
Marketing to Children 4-11 71
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................71
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................71
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................71
Toys and Games ..............................................................................................................................71
Table 28: The Forecast UK Toys and Games Market by Sector by Value
(£m at rsp), 2003-2007....................................................................................................................72
Snacks and Confectionery ..............................................................................................................72
Snack Foods....................................................................................................................................72
Table 29: The Forecast UK Snack Foods Market by Value
(£m at rsp), 2003-2007....................................................................................................................72
Table 30: The Forecast UK Snack Foods Market by Sector by Value
(£m at rsp), 2003-2007....................................................................................................................73
Confectionery ................................................................................................................................73
Table 31: The Forecast UK Confectionery Market by Sector by Value
(£m at rsp), 2003-2007....................................................................................................................73
Men’s Toiletries & Fragrances 75
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................75
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................75
Toiletries.........................................................................................................................................75
Fragrances ......................................................................................................................................75
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................75
Demographic Trends ......................................................................................................................75
Table 32: The Forecast UK Male Population by Age (000), 2003-2008........................................76
Persuading Men to Change Their Habits ......................................................................................76
Market Size ....................................................................................................................................77
Table 33: The Forecast UK Men’s Toiletries and Fragrances Market
by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp and index 2003=100), 2003-2007.....................................78
Nutraceuticals 79
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................79
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................80
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................80
Table 34: The Forecast UK Nutraceuticals Market by Sector by Value (£m), 2003-2007 ............81
Organic Food 82
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................82
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................82
Genetically-Modified Crops ...........................................................................................................82
MARKET FORECASTS...................................................................................................................83
Table 35: The Forecast UK Organic Foods Market by Value (£m at rsp),
Years Ending April 2004-2008........................................................................................................83
Personal Banking 84
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................84
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................84
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................84
Figure 6: The Forecast UK Personal Banking Market by Value (£bn), 2003-2007.......................85
Personal Lines Insurance 86
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................86
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................86
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................87
General Insurance..........................................................................................................................87
Long-Term Insurance......................................................................................................................87
Personal Loans 88
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................88
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................88
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................88
Shopping Centres 89
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................89
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................89
Covered Shopping Centres.............................................................................................................89
Retail Parks.....................................................................................................................................89
Factory and Designer Outlet Centres ............................................................................................89
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................90
Supermarket Own Labels 91
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................91
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................91
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................91
Table 36: The Forecast UK Grocery Market by Value (£m at rsp and %), 2003-2007.................93
Supermarket Services 94
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................94
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................94
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................94
Teleworking 96
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................96
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................96
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................96
Figure 7: Forecast Number of Teleworkers in the UK (million), 2003-2007................................97
The Impact of the Euro on the Financial-Services Industry 98
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................98
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................98
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................99
Table 37: Comparison of GDP for Eurozone and Non-Eurozone Economies
(annual % change), 2004-2008......................................................................................................99
Table 38: Forecast Net Lending and Borrowing for Eurozone
and Non-Eurozone Economies (% change), 2004-2008 .............................................................100
Table 39: Forecast Unemployment as a Percentage of the Labour Force
in Eurozone and Non-Eurozone Economies, 2004-2008 ............................................................101
The Newspaper Industry 102
INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................102
DEFINITION.................................................................................................................................103
FORECASTS.................................................................................................................................103
Table 40: The Forecast UK Newspaper Market by Value (£m), 2004-2008 ...............................104
The Pet Market 105
INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................105
DEFINITIONS...............................................................................................................................105
Pet Food .......................................................................................................................................105
Pet Accessories ..............................................................................................................................105
Pet Insurance................................................................................................................................106
FORECASTS.................................................................................................................................106
Table 41: The Forecast UK Pet Products Market by Sector by Value
(£m at rsp and index 2003=100), 2003-2007...............................................................................106
Vegetarian Foods 107
INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................107
DEFINITION.................................................................................................................................107
FORECASTS.................................................................................................................................107
Figure 8: The Forecast UK Vegetarian Foods Market by Value (£m), 2003/2004-2007/2008 ...108
Vehicle Breakdown Services 109
INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................109
DEFINITION.................................................................................................................................110
FORECASTS.................................................................................................................................110
Table 42: The Forecast UK Market for Vehicle Recovery Services by Value
(£m and index 2003=100), 2003-2007 .........................................................................................110
Figure 9: The Forecast UK Market for Vehicle Recovery Services by Value
(£m), 2003-2007 ............................................................................................................................111
Women Over 45 112
INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................112
DEFINITION.................................................................................................................................112
FORECASTS.................................................................................................................................113
Population Forecasts ....................................................................................................................113
Table 43: Projected UK Population by Age and Sex (000),
2003, 2006, 2010, 2015 and 2025.................................................................................................113
Table 44: Projected Life Expectancy from Birth by Region and Sex
(years), 2000/2001-2030/2031.......................................................................................................115
Market Forecasts..........................................................................................................................115
Working Women 117
INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................117
DEFINITION.................................................................................................................................117
Career Breaks Affect Women’s Earnings Potential ....................................................................117
Less Than Half of Single Women Work Full Time.......................................................................118
Creation of More Childcare Places ..............................................................................................118
Women Face Problems in Internet-Related Industries ...............................................................118
FORECASTS.................................................................................................................................119
Key Note Research 120
The Key Note Range of Reports 121
..............................38
Table 15: Forecast UK Long-Term Insurance Premium Income
by Net Written Premium by Value (£m and index 2003=100), 2003-2007..................................38
Table 16: Forecast UK General Insurance Net Written Premiums by UK Risks
Net Written Premium by Value (£m and index 2003=100), 2003-2007.......................................39
Direct Insurance 40
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................40
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................40
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................40
General Insurance..........................................................................................................................40
Table 17: Forecast General Insurance (Personal Lines) Business
by Gross Written Premium and Source of Business (£m and %), 2003-2007 ..............................41
Figure 3: Forecast General Insurance (Personal Lines) Business
by Gross Written Premium (£m), 2003-2007 .................................................................................42
Motor Insurance .............................................................................................................................42
Table 18: Forecast Motor Insurance Business by Gross Written Premium
and Source of Business (£m and %), 2003-2007 ...........................................................................43
Figure 4: Forecast Motor Insurance Business by Gross Written Premium (£m), 2003-2007 .......44
House Insurance.............................................................................................................................44
Table 19: Forecast Household Insurance Business by Gross Written Premium
and Source of Business (£m and %), 2003-2007 ...........................................................................45
Figure 5: Forecast Household Insurance Business by Gross Written Premium
(£m), 2003-2007 ..............................................................................................................................46
European Long-Term Insurance 47
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................47
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................47
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................48
Table 20: Forecast Total Direct Life Premium Income of CEA Members
(€m and index 2003=100), 2003-2007...........................................................................................48
FSM to Start-Up Businesses and the Self-Employed 49
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................49
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................49
Financial Services ............................................................................................................................49
The Self-Employed.........................................................................................................................49
Small Businesses.............................................................................................................................50
Table 21: European Commission Definitions of Business Categories
by Number of Staff, Turnover and Balance Sheet Total (€m), 2003...........................................50
FORECASTS ...................................................................................................................................50
FSM to the Retired and Elderly 52
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................52
Subject............................................................................................................................................52
Objectives.......................................................................................................................................52
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................53
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................53
Factors Affecting the Market.........................................................................................................53
Solvency Regulations.....................................................................................................................53
Equity Release Regulations ............................................................................................................53
Concentration in the Life Market..................................................................................................54
Risk and the Claims Culture ...........................................................................................................54
Future of the Housing Market.......................................................................................................54
Demographics ................................................................................................................................54
Table 22: Summary of Age Groups in the UK (million and %), 1961-2026.................................55
The Grey Market of the Future......................................................................................................55
Profile of the 70s Moving Into 80s ...............................................................................................55
Profile of the 60s Moving Into 70s ...............................................................................................55
Profile of the 50s Moving Into 60s ...............................................................................................55
Profile of the 40s Moving Into 50s ...............................................................................................56
Economic Consequences ................................................................................................................56
The Economy..................................................................................................................................56
Table 23: Key UK Forecasts for 2002-2004 ...................................................................................57
Pensions and Income......................................................................................................................57
The Insurance Industry ...................................................................................................................58
Solvency..........................................................................................................................................58
New Directions and Products.........................................................................................................58
Branches and the ‘Human Touch’..................................................................................................59
Marketing Directions.....................................................................................................................59
Companies to Watch ......................................................................................................................59
Europe............................................................................................................................................59
Forecourt Retailing 61
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................61
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................61
Fuel Retailing .................................................................................................................................61
Non-Fuel Retailing.........................................................................................................................61
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................61
Table 24: The Forecast UK Forecourt Retailing Market by Type of Sale
by Value (£bn at rsp and index 1998=100), 2003-2007 ................................................................62
Independent Financial Advisers 63
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................63
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................63
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................64
IFA Share of Market Sectors...........................................................................................................64
Table 25: Possible Scenario for IFA Share Using a Polarised Paradigm
(£bn and %), 2003-2007.................................................................................................................64
Table 26: Possible Scenario for IFA and Multi-Tied Market Share
in a Post-Depolarised Industry (£bn and %), 2003-2007..............................................................65
Low-Fat & Low-Sugar Foods 66
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................66
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................66
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................66
Table 27: The Forecast UK Low-Fat/Low-Sugar Foods Market by Value (£m), 2003-2007 .........67
Marketing in the Digital Age 68
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................68
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................68
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................69
Marketing to Children 4-11 71
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................71
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................71
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................71
Toys and Games ..............................................................................................................................71
Table 28: The Forecast UK Toys and Games Market by Sector by Value
(£m at rsp), 2003-2007....................................................................................................................72
Snacks and Confectionery ..............................................................................................................72
Snack Foods....................................................................................................................................72
Table 29: The Forecast UK Snack Foods Market by Value
(£m at rsp), 2003-2007....................................................................................................................72
Table 30: The Forecast UK Snack Foods Market by Sector by Value
(£m at rsp), 2003-2007....................................................................................................................73
Confectionery ................................................................................................................................73
Table 31: The Forecast UK Confectionery Market by Sector by Value
(£m at rsp), 2003-2007....................................................................................................................73
Men’s Toiletries & Fragrances 75
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................75
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................75
Toiletries.........................................................................................................................................75
Fragrances ......................................................................................................................................75
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................75
Demographic Trends ......................................................................................................................75
Table 32: The Forecast UK Male Population by Age (000), 2003-2008........................................76
Persuading Men to Change Their Habits ......................................................................................76
Market Size ....................................................................................................................................77
Table 33: The Forecast UK Men’s Toiletries and Fragrances Market
by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp and index 2003=100), 2003-2007.....................................78
Nutraceuticals 79
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................79
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................80
FORECASTS...................................................................................................................................80
Table 34: The Forecast UK Nutraceuticals Market by Sector by Value (£m), 2003-2007 ............81
Organic Food 82
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................82
DEFINITION...................................................................................................................................82
Genetically-Modified Crops ...........................................................................................................82
MARKET FORECASTS...................................................................................................................83
Table 35: The Forecast UK Organic Foods Market by Value (£m at rsp),
Years Ending April 2004-2008............................................................................................