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MP22031
MAPS BOOK RETAILING ON THE INTERNET MAY 2001
Overview

Editor: Market Assessment
ISBN: 1-86111-357-9

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary


1. Introduction


2. Definition


3. Strategic Overview

Background
Market Dynamics
Trends in the UK Book Market
Table 1: Total UK Book Sales by Value (£m), 1990-2000
Figure 1: Total UK Book Sales by Value (£m), 1990-2000
1996-2000
1996-2000
Key Sectors of the Internet Book Market
Competitive Structure
Trends in Pricing
The Consumer
Market Forecast
E-Commerce
Table 3: Forecast UK Book Sales by Value (£m), 2001-2006
Duty Free
Internet Usage
Table 4: The Most Popular Types of Websites by Reach ( percent), May 2000
Figure 3: The Most Popular Types of Websites by Reach ( percent), May 2000
Payment Security
Encryption
Secure Sockets Layer
Secure Electronic Transactions (SET) Standard
DTI Regulation
Government Initiatives
Increased Access
Information Age
Regulations for the Information Revolution
EU Proposals
Global Market
Trade Associations
The Publishers Association
General Books Council
Book Development Council International
Educational Publishers Council
Council of Academic and Professional Publishers
Electronic Publishers Forum
Electronic Commerce Association
Consumer Issues
Table 5: Agreement with Statements Concerning Purchasing Items on the Internet ( percent), 2001
Table 6: Consumers Without Access to the Internet ( percent), 2001
Consumers with Access to the Internet
Table 7: Timescale of Purchasers Planning to Gain Access to the Internet ( percent), 2001
Plans to Gain Access to the Internet in the Next 6 Months
Plans to Gain Access to the Internet in the Next 6 to 12 Months
Table 8: Consumers’ Desire to Buy Goods and Services on the Internet ( percent), 2001
Internet
Table 9: Concerns About Payment Security on the Internet ( percent), 2001
Concerns About Payment Security
Table 10: Adults Not Purchasing Books and Other Goods on the Internet ( percent),2001
Book Buyers Not Buying on the Internet
Those Who Never Buy Books and Other Goods on the Internet
total market sector value
(£m and index 1998=100), 1998-2000
1998-2000


4. Consumer Books

Market Sector Value
Table 12: UK Consumer Book Sales on the Internet by Value (£m and index 1998=100), 1998-2000
Figure 5: UK Consumer Book Sales on the Internet (£m), 1998-2000
Current Issues
Industry Statistics
Consumer issues
Consumers Who Buy Adult Fiction Books on the Internet
(million units) 1999
Table 14: UK Consumer Books Output (number of titles), 1998 and 1999
Consumers Who Buy Adult Non-Fiction Books on the Internet
Table 15: Consumers Who Buy Fiction/Non-Fiction Books on the Internet ( percent), 2001
Table 16: Consumers Who Buy Children’s Books on the Internet ( percent), 2001
Consumers Who Buy Children’s Books on the Internet
Forecasts
Table 17: Forecast UK Consumer Book Sales on the Internet by Value (£m and index 2001=100), 2001-2006


5. School Books

Market Sector Value
Table 18: UK School Book Sales on the Internet by Value (£m and index 1998=100), 1998-2000
1996-2000
Current issues
Government Education Policy
National Literacy Strategy )
Spending on School Books
Trends in Sales of Children’s Books
IT in Schools
Forecasts
Table 20: Forecast UK Total School Book Sales by Value (£m), 2001-2006
by Value (£m and index 2001=100), 2001-2006


6. Academic and Professional Books

Sector Value
Current Issues
Background
Table 22: UK Academic and Professional Book Sales on the Internet by Value (£m and index 1998=100), 1998-2000
Academic Book Retailing
The Entry of Specialist Online Booksellers
Student Book-Buying Behaviour
Industry Statistics
Table 23: Total UK Academic and Professional Book Sales by Value (£m), 1998-1999
Table 24: UK Publishers’ Sales of Academic and Professional Books by Volume (million units), 1999
Consumer Issues
Table 25: Consumers Who Buy Academic and Professional Books on the Internet ( percent), 2001
Forecasts
2001-2006


7. Suppliers

Background
Online Booksellers
Amazon.co.uk
Amazon.com
Bol.com
Barnes and Noble
High Street booksellers
WH Smith
Waterstone’s
Blackwell Retail
Case Study: The Country Bookstore
Publishers
Other Suppliers


8. Internet Service Providers

Demon Internet
UUNET
Freeserve
Yahoo!
Genie Internet
Virgin Net


9. International

November 2000
Online Bookselling in Europe


10. PEST Analysis

Political Factors
Economic Factors
Social Factors
Technological Factors


11. Future Prospects

Internet Usage
New Means of Payment
Individuals, Number of Households and Number of Connections, June 2001-June 2006
Online Bookselling
Devices
Forecasts
2001-2006
Table 30: Forecast UK School Book Sales by Value (£m), 2001-2006
Table 31: Forecast UK Academic and Professional Book Sales by Value (£m), 2001-2006
Table 32: Forecast UK Book Sales on the Internet by Value (£m, index 2001=100 and percent), 2001–2006
Sources
Glossary of Terms
A-Z of Definitions
Above-the-Line or Main Media Expenditure
Annual Growth Rate
Advertising
Cif
Constant Prices
Current Prices
Fob
Forecasts
MSP
‘Real’
RSP
About the Sources Used
ACNielsen MMS
Prodcom
NOP
Trade Association Data
Trade Sources

Key Note Research

The Range of Reports

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Online shopping has become one of the hot topics for today’s businesses. Despite all the adverse publicity surrounding the collapse of various dotcom companies in 2000, online business is here to stay and it will grow in the years ahead. Of all the goods and services bought by consumers over the Internet, the most popular are books, CDs and videos. In many people’s eyes, it is in the books sector where online shopping began. This report looks at the state of online bookselling in 2001.

The 1998 report showed that only 39 percent of people aged 15 and over had access to the Internet, whereas in 2001, the figure is 61 percent.

Amazon.co.uk and its US parent Amazon.com are estimated to have a combined share of the UK online bookselling market of 67 percent. Bol.com, owned by Bertelsmann in Germany, is said to have 8 percent. Companies such as WH Smith and Waterstone’s have made a lesser impact on the market.

Discounts were an initial attraction of online bookselling, but there now appears to be some lessening of discounts in favour of other inducements to make purchases. Good service and fast delivery are seen as very important components of online retailers’ strategy.

Booksellers are divided as to how much trade the online bookseller specialists have taken away from them. There is a view that they may have damaged the book clubs much more than the High Street booksellers. Another question is to what extent the online book sector has actually grown the market. Due to the different discounts and voucher schemes that are available both in the High Street and among the online booksellers, it is difficult to assess whether more books are being sold as a result of online purchases. Most figures for this industry are stronger on the value of books sold than on the quantity. However, Key Note believes that online bookselling may be growing the market even if it is only marginally.

The profile of those who buy books over the Internet is interesting. 5 percent of those aged 15 or over buy fiction on the Internet and 7 percent buy non-fiction. Men buy 53 percent of fiction bought over the Internet and 43 percent of non-fiction. The main buyers of books online are aged 35 to 44.

Convenience is said to be the number one reason why people buy books online, but NOP’s survey results in this report show that only 36 percent of Internet fiction book buyers are working full time. Another interesting fact is that 66 percent of Internet fiction book buyers have two cars, so they are not buying online because they cannot get to a bookshop easily. Indeed, they are probably high book buyers already and buy their other books from a bookshop.

Many more people are now prepared to buy books online than hitherto. In 1998, 34 percent of people aged 15 and over told NOP that they did not buy books online because they preferred to buy books in a bookstore. In 2001, only 23 percent say that they prefer to go to a bookshop. However, there still remain a fifth of the adult population – almost identical to the proportion in 1998 – who are concerned about payment security.

Consumer books represent the majority of books bought on the Internet – 72 percent of the total by value. Although online book buying was originally strongest in the academic and professional book sector, it is in the consumer book sector where demand for online book purchases is the greatest and where it is growing the fastest. Academic booksellers have reacted very robustly to the Internet, which has meant that they have not lost as many sales as they had thought. This was at least the case in 2000.

The fact that convenience really is a guiding factor behind online purchases is shown by the relatively low share of online book buying that there is in the academic and professional book sector and in the school book sector. For in all those cases, the High Street booksellers and the specialist academic and school booksellers have direct access to their customers. Universities have their own campus bookshops, while schools are largely supplied by booksellers, distributors and publishers who literally come to their door. This is not the case with consumer books. The consumer has the choice of either going to a bookshop or buying from an online bookseller. A few titles can be bought online at a discount from a newspaper following a review. Some titles can be bought from a book club, but they may not be the ones that a buyer wants at that time. So for the consumer the online bookseller represents a very convenient way to buy what they want.

UK Internet usage per head of population is the second highest in Europe after Sweden. UK e-commerce revenues are also the second highest – at 20 percent of the total – after Germany, which has 26 percent of Europe’s e-commerce revenues. Thus, there is a real readiness to use the Internet in the UK. Key Note estimates that by February 2002, 70 percent of people aged 15 and over will have access to the Internet. Among the critically important group of book buyers, i.e. those aged 25 to 44, the percentage of those with Internet access is already 70 percent and so is likely to be even higher in 2002.

Key Note forecasts that the total value of Internet book buying will increase in 2006 to represent 14 percent of the entire book market. The shape of bookselling will change enormously over the next 5 years with the introduction of print-on-demand by the major bookshops and by campus booksellers. Amazon.co.uk and Bol.com will remain key players but some smaller firms will take up market positions in online bookselling.

Text © 2001 MAPS

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Last updated by Paul Tucker 21st August 2001