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MP15161
MAPS BABY FOODS MAY 2001
Overview

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This report covers: baby meals, baby milks, baby drinks, baby finger foods, rusks, cereals, wet baby meal,

Companies covered include: HJ Heinz, Koninklijke (Royal) Numico, sma nutrition, Hipp KG, Boots, baby organix

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Executive Summary 1
2 1. Introduction 9
3 Definitions 9
4 Baby Meals 9
5 Baby Milks 9
6 Baby Drinks 10
7 Baby Finger Foods and Rusks 10
8 2. Strategic Overview 11
9 KEY issues 11
10 Birth Rates 11
11 Table 1: Total Births and Birth Rate in the UK (000 and number of births), 1971-1999 11
12 Deferred Child Birth 12
13 Table 2: Number of Births in England and Wales, by Age of Mother, 1961-1999 12
14 Table 3: Fertility Rates† in England and Wales by Age Group, 1961-1999 12
15 Table 4: Average Age of Mother at Birth of Child† in England and Wales, 1961-1999 13
16 Changing UK Household Structure 14
17 Table 5: Changing Household Structure in Great Britain ( percent of households), 1979-1998 15
18 High Cost of Children 15
19 Total Baby Care Market 15
20 Table 6: Baby Care Retail Market by Sector by Value, (£m and percent),1999 and 2000 16
21 Coping With The Financial Burden 16
22 Table 7: The Need to Save Money to be Able to Afford the Expenses of Having Children ( percent of respondents), 2001 18
23 Table 8: Pressure of Earning a Living Delays Parenthood ( percent of respondents), 2001 20
24 Working Mothers 21
25 Table 9: Number of Working Women Aged 16 to 59 in Employment in the UK (000 and percent), 1984-2000 21
26 Table 10: Working Women Aged 16 to 59 ( percent), 1990, 1995 and 2000 22
27 Table 11: Working While Children are Young ( percent of respondents), 2001 24
28 Only the Best for Babies 25
29 Table 12: Home Preparation of Baby Foods Versus Ease of Preparation ( percent of respondents), 2001 26
30 Breast Feeding is Best 27
31 Table 13: Economic Activity Status of Mothers† with Youngest Child Aged 0 to 4 ( percent), 1990, 1995 and 2000 28
32 The Rise of Organic Baby Foods 29
33 Dynamics and Trends 29
34 The Consumer 29
35 Table 14: Organic Baby Food ( percent of respondents), 2001 31
36 market size TOTAL 32
37 Table 15: The Total Baby Food and Drink Market by Sector by Value (£m), 1995-2000 32
38 Figure 1: The Total Baby Food and Drink Market by Sector by Value (£m), 1995-2000 33
39 AdVERTising and promotion 33
40 Table 16: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Baby Foods (£m), Year to End December 1997-2000 34
41 DISTRIBUTION issues 34
42 Table 17: Baby Food and Drink Sales Through Independent Pharmacies by Sector (£m and percent), 1999 and 2000 35
43 Figure 2: Baby Food and Drink Sales Through Independent Pharmacies by Sector (£m and percent), 1999 and 2000 35
44 3. Baby Meals 36
45 market size and Segmentation 36
46 Baby Meals by Value 36
47 Table 18: The Baby Meals Market by Sector by Value (£m and percent), 1995-2000 36
48 Baby Meals by Volume 37
49 Table 19: The Baby Meals Market by Sector by Volume (million units and percent), 1999 and 2000 37
50 Baby Meals by Age Range 37
51 Table 20: Wet Baby Meal Sales by Age ( percent of unit sales), 1999 and 2000 38
52 Figure 3: Wet Baby Meal Sales by Age ( percent of unit sales), 1999 and 2000 38
53 Baby Meals by Type of Meal 38
54 Table 21: Wet Baby Meal Sales by Type of Meal ( percent), 2000 39
55 Suppliers and Brand shares 39
56 Total Baby Meals 39
57 Table 22: Total† Baby Meal Brand Shares by Value (£m and percent ), 1999 and 2000 40
58 Figure 4: Total† Baby Meal Brand Shares by Value (£m and percent ), 1999 and 2000 41
59 Wet Baby Meals 41
60 Table 23: Wet Baby Meal Brand Shares by Value (£m and percent), 1999 and 2000 42
61 Figure 5: Wet Baby Meal Brand Shares by Value (£m and percent), 1999 and 2000 43
62 Dry Baby Meals 43
63 Table 24: Dry Baby Meal Brand Shares by Volume (£m and percent ), 1999 and 2000 44
64 Figure 6: Dry Baby Meal Brand Shares by Volume (£m and percent ), 1999 and 2000 45
65 advertising and promotion 45
66 Table 25: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Baby Meals by Major Brand (£000), Year to End December 1997-2000 45
67 consumer dynamics 46
68 Penetration of Baby/Junior Foods 46
69 Table 26: Penetration of Baby or Junior Foods ( percent of housewives ), 1995, 1997, 1999 and 2000 47
70 Attitudes — Wet Versus Dry Baby Meals 47
71 Table 27: Wet Versus Dry Baby Meals ( percent of respondents), 2001 48
72 distribution 49
73 Table 28: Wet Versus Dry Baby Meal Sales by Retail Outlet by Value ( percent), 1999 and 2000 49
74 4. Baby Milks 50
75 market size and segmentation 50
76 Table 29: The Baby Milks Market by Sector† by Value (£m), 1995 and 2000 50
77 suppliers and brand shares 51
78 Table 30: Baby Milk Brand Shares by Value (£m and percent), 1999 and 2000 52
79 Figure 7: Baby Milk Manufacturer Brand Shares by Volume ( percent), 1999 and 2000 53
80 advertising and promotion 53
81 Table 31: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Baby Milks by Major Brand (£000), Year to End December 1997-2000 54
82 consumer dynamics 55
83 Penetration of Baby Milks 55
84 Table 32: Penetration of Baby Milks ( percent of housewives†), 1995, 1997, 1999 and 2000 55
85 Attitudes 55
86 Table 33: Manufactured Baby Milk Versus Breast-Fed Milk ( percent of respondents), 2001 57
87 Table 34: Brand Reliability and Information Sources ( percent of respondents), 2001 59
88 distribution 60
89 Table 35: Baby Milk Sales by Outlet Type by Volume ( percent), 1995 and 2000 60
90 Figure 8: Baby Milk Sales by Outlet Type by Volume ( percent), 1995 and 2000 61
91 5. Baby Drinks 62
92 Market Size and Segmentation 62
93 Table 36: The Baby Drinks Market by Sector by Value (£m and percent), 1995, 1999 and 2000 62
94 Figure 9: The Baby Drinks Market by Sector by Value (£m), 1995, 1999 and 2000 63
95 suppliers and brand shares 63
96 Table 37: Baby Drinks Brand Shares by Value (£m and percent), 1999 and 2000 64
97 Figure 10: Baby Drinks Brand Shares by Value (£m), 1999 and 2000 65
98 6. Baby Finger Foods 66
99 market size and segmentation 66
100 Table 38: The Baby Finger Foods Sales by Type (£m and percent), 1999 and 2000 66
101 suppliers and brand shares 66
102 Table 39: Baby Finger Food Brand Shares by Value ( percent), 1999 and 2000e 67
103 Figure 11: Baby Finger Food Brand Shares by Value ( percent), 1999 and 2000e 68
104 advertising and promotion 68
105 Consumer Dynamics 69
106 Incidence of Usage 69
107 Table 40: Penetration of Baby Cereals and Rusks Consumption ( percent of housewives†), 1995, 1997, 1999 and 2000 69
108 Attitudes to Sugar Content 69
109 Table 41: Sugar Content of Baby Foods ( percent of respondents), 2001 70
110 distribution 71
111 7. An International Perspective 72
112 Market VALUES 72
113 Total Markets 72
114 Table 42: The Baby Foods and Drinks Market, Total Population and Birth Rate in Selected European Countries
115 (£m, million, and births per 1,000 of population), 1999 72
116 By Sector 72
117 Table 43: The Baby Food and Drinks Market in Selected European Countries by Sector by Value ( percent), 1999 73
118 Figure 12: The Baby Food and Drinks Market in Selected European Countries by Sector by Value ( percent), 1999 74
119 Spain 74
120 Table 44: Total Baby Food and Drink Market by Sector by Volume and Value (tonnes, pesetas and percent) 1998 and 1999 75
121 FRANCE 75
122 Table 45: Total Baby Milk Market by Sector by Volume and Value (tonnes, FFr and percent), Year to March 1998 and 1999 76
123 MEAL TYPES 76
124 Table 46: Wet Baby Product Sales in Germany and France by Recipe Type by Value ( percent), 1999 76
125 Figure 13: Wet Baby Product Sales in Germany and France by Recipe Type by Value ( percent), 1999 78
126 Suppliers and Brands 78
127 Supplier Concentration 78
128 Supplier Shares by Country and Product Type 79
129 France 79
130 Table 47: Total Baby Foods and Drink Manufacturer Shares in France ( percent), 1999 79
131 Table 48: The French Baby Milks Market by Brand Share by Value ( percent), 1999 80
132 Table 49: Wet Baby Meal Brand Shares in France ( percent), Year to March 2000 80
133 Germany 80
134 Table 50: Total Baby Foods and Drink Brand Shares in Germany ( percent), 1999 and 2000† 81
135 Spain 81
136 Table 51: Baby Milks and Wet Baby Foods Brand Shares in Spain by Value ( percent), 1999 82
137 distribution 82
138 Table 52: The Baby Foods and Drinks Market in Spain by percentage Share Taken by Pharmacies† by Sector by Value ( percent), 1999 83
139 8. PEST Analysis 84
140 POLITICAL FACTORS 84
141 Government Plans to Help Parents Gain Flexible Work 84
142 Lessening Financial Burdens 84
143 Work Provides Us with the Best Time of Our Lives 84
144 ECONOMIC FACTORS 85
145 Table 53: Main Economic Indicators (£bn and percent change), 1995-2004 86
146 SOCIAL FACTORS 87
147 Birth Rates 87
148 Deferred Childbirth 87
149 Table 54: Number of Births by Age of Mother in England and Wales (years and percent), 1961, 1971, 1981, 1991, 1995 and 1999 87
150 Working Mothers 88
151 TEchnological Factors 89
152 9. Consumer Dynamics 90
153 Table 55: Proportion of Adults Agreeing with Individual Statements about Having a Family and Baby Food Products ( percent of respondents), 2001 91
154 10. Supplier Profiles 93
155 HJ Heinz 93
156 Table 56: Worldwide Sales for HJ Heinz by Main Product Group ($m),Years Ending 29th April 1998 and 1999 and 3rd May 2000 93
157 Koninklijke (Royal) Numico NV 94
158 Table 57: Financial Results for Numico NV (£m†), 1995-1999 95
159 sma nutrition 96
160 Hipp KG 97
161 The boots company plc 98
162 Table 58: Financial Results for Boots The Chemists (£m), 1996-2000 99
163 Table 59: Boots The Chemists, Sales Split by Category ( percent), 2000 99
164 baby organix 100
165 11. The Future 101
166 PROJECTED BIRTHS 101
167 Table 60: Projected Number of Births per Annum† (000), 1998-2001-2011-2016 101
168 FORECASTS 2001 TO 2004 101
169 Table 61: The Forecast Baby Foods and Drinks Market by Sector by Value at Current and Constant 2000 Prices (£m and percent), 2001-2004 102
170 12. Further Sources 104
171 Companies 104
172 Publications 104
173 General Sources 105
174 Bonnier Information Sources 106
175 Government Publications 107
176 Other Sources 108

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Despite falling birth rates, the baby foods and milks market continues to grow, increasing by 28.2 percent, in value terms, between 1995 and 2000. Changing lifestyles - associated with the increased number of working women, starting a family later in life, and acceptance of the need to make some sort of financial provision for having children - are amongst factors contributing towards ability and willingness to pay for quality products, some of which are sold at a premium. A number of the findings from the consumer research commissioned especially for this report, confirm widespread acceptance of combining work and bringing up babies, from a very early age.

A steady stream of product innovations, whether it be new recipes, introduction of organic lines, new milk formulations or finger foods, have contributed towards market growth, in what might otherwise be a static or even declining market. Increased targeting of older toddlers, in order to keep mothers in the market for longer, has been seen as another opportunity by manufacturers to grow the market, despite a static or falling birth rate.

The report discusses the dynamics and trends surrounding increased sales of organic baby foods. The German-owned baby foods manufacturer Hipp has gained substantial share in the UK as a result of its organic range. Even mainstream players such as Heinz and Cow & Gate have launched organic baby meal ranges.

Baby meals have overtaken baby milks as the largest single sector within the baby foods and drinks market. Wet baby meals have increased their dominance over dry meals, mainly for convenience-related reasons. A vast range of recipes are available, with Key Note's enquiries revealing over 600 different wet meal products (taking into account different brands) and around 280 for dry meals, in March 2001.

Follow-on milks have been the main source of growth, as mothers follow official recommendations to avoid unmodified cow's milk, until the baby is at least 12 months of age. Unlike infant formulas, suppliers are allowed to advertise follow-on milks. A number of the leading follow-on milk brands, such as SMA, spent significant amounts on above-the-line advertising in 2000. Within the infant formula sector, second stage (curd based) products for babies aged 3 months and over account for over half by sales of value and volume. Making commercially produced milks as close as possible to breast-fed milks continues to be the focus of much new product development (NPD). `Breast is best' continues to be widely promoted by government and health experts in general.

Finger foods and baby drinks are small sectors. Innovations by a number of suppliers have resulted in significant sales growth of finger foods, other than rusks, albeit from a small base. The baby drinks sector has remained static, due to competition from a number of alternative drinks.

In the UK, as well as other baby food and drinks markets in Europe (France, Germany and Spain) also covered in this report, a few major pharmaceutical food processing firms account for the majority of baby food and drink sales. There are obviously differences in the relative shares of key multinationals between countries. Retailer labels continue to have a negligible share in all countries. The sales mix varies between different countries. In Germany, for example, follow-on milk is more important than infant formulas than in France, the UK and Spain. Key Note is forecasting a 13.7 percent value increase in real terms in overall sales of baby foods and drinks in the UK between 2000 and 2004. Baby meals, followed by baby milks, are set to enjoy the greatest rate of sales increase.

Text © 2001 MAPS

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Last updated by Paul Tucker 22nd August 2001