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Executive Summary

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The number of winter holidays taken by UK residents increased by 4.2 percent in 1998/1999, to reach an estimated 34.8 million trips. This is against a background growth of 18 percent for the period between 1995/1996 and 1998/1999.
In 1998/1999, UK residents spent £6.4bn on winter holidays, excluding international fares. Including international fares, the UK market for winter holidays is worth approximately £8bn. This is a fifth of the total UK market for tourism that includes both business and leisure, which is valued at around £40bn. The UK winter tourism market, excluding international fares, was equivalent to 2.7 percent of household expenditure in 1998/1999.
Overseas winter holidays are growing at a faster rate than domestic winter holidays. Between 1995/1996 and 1998/1999, the number of overseas winter holidays taken increased by 30 percent compared with 14 percent for domestic holidays. International trips growing at a faster rate than domestic trips is a long-term trend aided by several contributory factors in recent years, including the opening of the Channel Tunnel, the development of `low-cost, no-frills' airlines and the increase in the value of sterling.
For the 1998/1999 winter holiday season, Key Note estimates that the total expenditure on overseas winter holidays was approximately $4.8bn. Expenditure on overseas winter holidays has grown at a slower rate than overseas winter tourism overall as the average expenditure on an overseas winter holiday rose by only 2.3 percent between 1995/1996 and 1998/1999. Over the same period, the number of overseas winter package holidays increased by 37 percent compared with a 23 percent increase in the number of independently organised trips. Despite the development of the Channel Tunnel, air travel has not lost share of the winter holidays market and commanded 72 percent share in 1998/1999.
Key Note estimates that expenditure on domestic winter holidays by UK residents increased by 5.5 percent in 1998/1999, despite a low level of consumer confidence in the second half of 1998. This compared with a growth in expenditure on overseas winter holidays of 9.5 percent. Average expenditure on a domestic winter holiday has remained the same in recent years, as has the average duration. This has aided the growth of domestic winter holidays, which have grown from 22.4 million in 1994/1995 to 26.3 million in 1998/1999.
Key Note believes that winter holidays will grow at a slightly higher rate than summer holidays. Key Note forecasts that overseas winter holidays will grow by 38 percent between 1998/1999 and 2003/2004, to reach 11.7 million holidays; compared with 27 percent growth for domestic winter holidays, to reach 33.4 million holidays.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

Market Definition

INTRODUCTION

MARKET POSITION

MARKET TRENDS

Table 1: Growth in UK Winter Tourism Market (£m), 1995/1996-1998/1999

Table 2: Winter Tourism Share of Household Expenditure (£m and percent), 1995/1996-1998/1999

Table 3: Winter Holiday Market Share of Tourism and Household Expenditure (£m and percent), 1995/1996-1998/1999

Market Size

THE TOTAL MARKET

MARKET SECTORS

DESTINATION

Table 4: Growth in UK Winter Holidays Market by Volume (million trips), 1995/1996-1998/1999

Table 5: Growth in Overseas Winter Holiday Market by Value and Volume (£m, 000 trips and £), 1995/1996-1998/1999

Table 6: Growth in Overseas Winter Holiday Market by Type of Holiday (000 visits), 1995/1996-1998/1999

Table 7: Growth in Overseas Winter Holiday Market by Mode (000 visits), 1995/1996-1998/1999

Table 8: Growth in Overseas Winter Holiday Market by Route (000 visits), 1995/1996-1998/1999

Table 9: Growth in Ski Holiday Market (000 visits), 1994/1995-1998/1999

Table 10: Proportion of Packaged Air Holidays by Type by Season ( percent), 1985-1998

Table 11: Proportion of Packaged Air Holidays by Short and Long Haul by Season ( percent), 1985-1998

Table 12: Proportion of Packaged Air Holidays by Family Type by Season ( percent), 1985-1998

Table 13: Growth in Domestic Winter Holidays by Volume and Value (million trips, million nights and £m), 1994/1995-1998/1999

Table 14: Growth in Domestic Winter Short Break Holidays Market by Volume and Value (£m, million trips and million nights), 1994/1995-1998/1999

Table 15: Growth in the UK Domestic Winter Holidays Market by Region of Visit (million trips and percent), 1994/1995-1998/1999

Industry Background

INTRODUCTION

INDUSTRY CONCENTRATION

DOMESTIC HOTELS AND OTHER DOMESTIC ACCOMMODATION PROVIDERS

DISTRIBUTION

Table 16: Market Shares of Top Five AIT Tour Operators by Volume, 1995-1998

Table 17: Number of UK Hotels That are Registered With a Tourist Board, 1998

Table 18: UK Hotel Industry Concentration (number of bedrooms), 1998

Table 19: Holiday Booking Procedure Used by Adults (number of adults and percent), 1997 and 1998

Competitor Analysis

INTRODUCTION

OVERSEAS TOUR OPERATORS

MARKET LEADERS

LEADING DOMESTIC HOTEL GROUPS AND DOMESTIC WINTER HOLIDAY PROVIDERS AND OPERATORS

ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION

Table 20: Estimated Shares of Overseas Winter Package Holiday Operators ( percent), 1998/1999-1999/2000

Table 21: Market Shares of Ski Operators (000 holidays), 1998/1999

Table 22: The UK's Leading Hotel Groups (number of hotels and bedrooms), 1998

Table 23: Growth in Overseas Winter Holiday Market Through Travel Agents (million), 1995/1996-1998/1999

Table 24: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Selected Overseas Tour Operators (£000), Year to June 1995-1999

Table 25: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Hotel Brands (£000), Year to June 1995-1999

Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT)

STRENGTHS

WEAKNESSES

OPPORTUNITIES

THREATS

Buying Behaviour

CONSUMER PENETRATION AND REPEAT PURCHASE

SEX AND AGE PROFILE

Table 26: Holiday Taking - Consumer Penetration and Repeat Purchase (number of adults and percent), 1995-1998

Table 27: Breakdown of Overseas Winter Holidays by Sex and Age ( percent), 1995/1996-1997/1998

Table 28: Packaged Ski Holiday Takers by Region (000 and percent), 1997/1998-1998/1999

Table 29: Domestic Holiday Taking by Month of Departure ( percent), 1996-1997

Outside Suppliers to the Industry

DESTINATION

Table 30: Overseas Winter Holiday Destinations, 1995/1996-1997/1998

Table 31: Overseas Packaged Ski Holiday Destinations (000 trips and percent), 1997/1998-1998/1999

Current Issues

EC BLOCKS PROPOSED MERGER

THE MILLENNIUM

LOW-COST AIRLINES

ABOLITION OF DUTY FREE

NEW TECHNOLOGY

VALUE-ADDED TAX

HOTEL GRADING

Forecasts

THE IMPACT OF THE ECONOMY ON CONSUMER DEMAND/EXPENDITURE

FORECASTS 1998/1999 TO 2003/2004

Table 32: Forecast Winter Holidays Market (million trips and percent), 1998/1999-2003/2004

Company Profiles

INTRODUCTION

DEFINITIONS

FURTHER INFORMATION

Further Sources

ASSOCIATIONS

PERIODICALS

DIRECTORIES

GENERAL SOURCES

HOPPENSTEDT BONNIER INFORMATION SOURCES

GOVERNMENT PUBLICATIONS

OTHER SOURCES

Text © 1999 Key Note

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