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KN74119
KEY NOTE SECURITY (UK) : JULY 1999
Overview

ISBN 1-85765-769-1

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

MARKET VALUE

The UK security and fire protection market showed a combined value of £4.6bn in 1997, at end-user prices, and is expected to have risen to £4.73bn in 1998. Total growth over a 4-year period is estimated at 17.5 percent at constant prices.

MARKET SECTORS

The report considers the market under the sectors of manned security services, electronic security, physical security equipment, vehicle security and fire protection equipment but there are several subsectors within these headings.
The manned security sector is the largest in value, estimated at £1.87bn for 1998, and it shows annual increases in value as the cost of manpower increases. There has also been some real volume growth, due mainly to a trend towards contracting out more services and the privatisation of functions which were once the preserve of public sector employees. The cash handling subsector has suffered a decline in volume in recent years but the recent price cutting has come to an end and the value of this sector appears to have recovered.
Electronic security is estimated at £1.37bn. This is the most dynamic sector in terms of product development, but different subsectors show different levels of maturity. Prices have fallen for some products and value growth has not kept pace with the very strong volume growth. Income from maintenance and monitoring becomes more important as the electronic sectors mature, and is estimated to account for more than a third of the overall sector value. The main products included within electronic security are intruder alarms, access control, closed-circuit television (CCTV) and personal security systems. There is increasing overlap between these sectors as the market moves towards greater use of integrated systems.
The physical security sector, which includes locks, safes and many other devices such as grilles, screens and security fences, is very mature and is estimated to be worth £593m.
Vehicle security is worth around £261m. It has shown very strong growth over the last 4 years, thanks to growth in motor vehicle production and in UK registrations.
Fire protection, valued at £635m, is a mature market sector but turnover figures show that there has been some growth in recent years, due to price increases and the recent growth in construction output. The ongoing costs of maintenance account for around half the value of the sector.

Table 1: Annual Growth for the Main Sectors of the
UK Security and Fire Protection Market Based on Current
End-User Prices ( percent), 1995-1998






1995

1996

1997

1998

Manned





Security services

0.8

4.8

6.6

4.7

Electronic security

9.0

3.9

4.4

0.3

Physical security

-0.2

2.1

0.5

-0.3

Vehicle security

18.8

9.3

4.3

6.5

Fire protection

7.7

5.0

3.7

4.1






Total

4.7

4.4

4.7

2.8

Source:Key Note





CONSUMER RESEARCH

Research carried out for Key Note by The Gallup Organization Ltd found that 81 percent of adults now have at least one smoke detector in their homes, while 78 percent have a mortise lock or deadlock on the front door and 77 percent have security locks on windows. Other types of basic security protection still have some capacity for further growth and only 34 percent of adults claim to have a fire extinguisher in the home.
Views on the factors contributing to crime differ between the age groups. Young people are more likely than their elders to blame unemployment, urban deprivation and envy of others. Drugs are thought to be a factor by 92 percent of the population and for every age group questioned this was the factor most likely to be blamed.

SUPPLY

Many hundreds of companies play a part in the security and fire protection market, and the range of products and services is so diverse that no single company or group is present in every subsector. At the top end of the industry, concentration continues and the leading few groups have increased their dominance. This is particularly true of the top two groups, Williams PLC and Tyco International. A recent newcomer to the list of leading players is Securitas, an important Swedish based group which entered the UK market in 1996 and has increased its presence in 1999 with a second acquisition.
The sector which is expected to show most change over the next year or two is that of manned guarding. The combined effects of the National Minimum Wage, the new Working Time Directive and the expected introduction of compulsory licensing of guards will push up manpower costs and lead to shortages of suitable employees. Large-scale concentration is expected in this sector and it has already begun in 1998/1999. Those companies which already pay above the National Minimum Wage and which comply with existing standards will be the survivors, but they will also feel the effect of rising costs.

FUTURE PROSPECTS

The relatively stable economy and the further growth expected in output of new commercial buildings seem likely to guarantee growth in the security and fire protection markets to the end of the century. Fire protection is a fairly stable market, backed by strict regulations and with a high level of income from maintenance. The electronic security sectors have varying propects. Access control has continued growth prospects, while for electronic article surveillance (EAS) prospects are excellent. The CCTV market still has plenty of opportunities but prices have fallen and the boom period is coming to an end. The intruder alarm sector is fairly mature, although household penetration could be increased. There is increasing demand for integration of electronic security and fire protection systems. The industry agrees that price rises of at least 10 percent will occur in the manned guarding sector but it is not certain what proportion of the clientele will find alternatives to using full-time security guards as a result of these price rises.
Overall, the prospects for security and fire protection remain fairly good. The threat of crime and the danger of fires are constantly present. There is a continual need for product innovation to try to remain one step ahead of criminals and there are many technological improvements which offer opportunities for upgrading of security equipment.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary
Market Overview
DEFINITION
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
TRADE ASSOCIATIONS
TRADE EXHIHIBIONS
THE TOTAL MARKET
MARKET SECTORS
KEY TRENDS AND PROSPECTS
PEST ANALYSIS
EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE
Table 1.1: Estimated Total Value of the UK Private Security and Fire Protection Market at Current End-User Prices (£m and percent), 1994-1998
Table 1.2: UK Security and Fire Protection Market by Sector at Current End-User Prices (£m), 1994-1998
Table 1.3: Number of Notifiable Criminal Offences Recorded by the Police in England and Wales and in Scotland (000 cases), 1992-1997
Table 1.4: Ownership of Selected Home Security Devices ( percent of households surveyed), 1997
Table 1.5: Analysis of Notifiable Offences Recorded in England and Wales (000 cases), 1992-1998
Table 1.6: Number of Thefts from Shops in England and Wales and Crimes of Shoplifting in Scotland (000 cases), 1992-1998
Table 1.7: Cost of Crime to Retailers (£m), 1994-1998
Table 1.8: Crime Prevention Expenditure by Retailers (£m and percent), 1997 and 1998
Table 1.9: Total Number of Fires Attended by Fire Brigades in the UK (000), 1992-1997
Table 1.10: Cost of Domestic and Commercial Property Insurance Claims (£m), 1994-1998
Table 1.11: Output of New Building Work in Great Britain by Value at Constant 1995 Prices (£m, seasonally adjusted), 1990-1998
Key Note Field Research
METHODOLOGY
CONSUMER USE OF SECURITY AND FIRE PROTECTION MEASURES
OPINIONS ON CRIME LEVELS
Table 2.1: Security and Fire Protection Measures in the Home ( percent of adults), 1994-1998
Table 2.2: Use of Smoke Alarms by Sex, Age, Social Class and Region ( percent of adults who have this item in their home), 1998
Table 2.3: Use of Mortise/Deadlock on the Front Door by Sex, Age, Social Class and Region ( percent of adults who have this item in their home), 1998
Table 2.4: Use of Security Locks on the Windows by Sex, Age, Social Class and Region ( percent of adults who have these items in their home), 1998
Table 2.5: Use of Outside Security Lights by Sex, Age, Social Class and Region ( percent of adults who have this item in their home), 1998
Table 2.6: Use of Front Door Chains by Sex, Age, Social Class and Region ( percent of people who have this item in their home), 1998
Table 2.7: Use of Fire Extinguishers by Sex, Age, Social Class and Region ( percent of adults who have this item in their home), 1998
Table 2.8: Use of Professionally Installed Burglar Alarms by Sex, Age, Social Class and Region ( percent of adults who have this item in their home), 1998
Table 2.9: Use of Spyholes by Sex, Age, Social Class and Region ( percent of adults who have this item in their home), 1998
Table 2.10: Use of Time- or Light-Sensitive Indoor Lights by Sex, Age, Social Class and Region ( percent of adults who have this item in their home), 1998
Table 2.11: Use of Personal Alarms by Sex, Age, Social Class and Region ( percent of adults who have this item in their home), 1998
Table 2.12: Use of Fire Blankets by Sex, Age, Social Class and Region ( percent of adults who have this item in their home), 1998
Table 2.13: Opinions on Factors Responsible for Crime Levels ( percent of adults), 1998
Competitor Analysis
PROFILES OF THE LEADING COMPANIES
Table 3.1: Leading UK and Foreign Groups Competing in the UK Security and Fire Protection Market by Global and UK Turnover Relevant to Security and Fire
Protection (currencies as indicated), 1997/1998
Table 3.2: Williams PLC - Financial Results (£m), Year Ended 31st December 1997
Manned Security Services
DEFINITION
KEY TRENDS
SECTOR TRENDS
MARKET SIZE
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
MAJOR PLAYERS
BUYING BEHAVIOUR
FORECASTS
Table 4.1: Estimated Market for Manned Security Services in the UK at Current Prices (£m), 1994-1998
Table 4.2: Retail Expenditure on Security Staff (£m and percent), 1993/1994-1998
Table 4.3: Retail Expenditure on Cash Collection Services (£m and percent), 1993/1994-1998
Table 4.4: Forecast Market for Manned Security Services at Constant 1998 Prices (£m), 1999-2003
Electronic Security
INTRODUCTION
DEFINITIONS
KEY TRENDS
MARKET SIZE
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
MAJOR PLAYERS
BUYING BEHAVIOUR
FORECASTS
Table 5.1: UK Market for Electronic Security Systems at Current Prices (£m), 1994-1998
Table 5.2: NACOSS Installations by Type of Security System, 1993-1998
Table 5.3: Apparent UK Market for Burglar and Fire Alarms, Excluding Alarms for Motor Vehicles (£m at msp), 1994-1998
Table 5.4: NACOSS Installations by Signal ( percent), 1994-1998
Table 5.5: Number of BSIA Members in the CCTV Sector and Combined Turnover of CCTV Members (number and £m), 1993-1998
Table 5.6: International Trade in Burglar and Fire Alarms Excluding Motor Vehicle Alarms (£m), 1994-1998
Table 5.7: Total NACOSS Installations by Type of Client, 1993-1998
Table 5.8: NACOSS Installations by Signal Type ( percent), 1998
Table 5.9: Forecast Electronic Security Market at Constant 1998 End-User Prices (£m), 1999-2003
Physical Security Equipment
INTRODUCTION
KEY TRENDS
MARKET SIZE
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
MAJOR PLAYERS
BUYING BEHAVIOUR
FORECASTS
Table 6.1: Estimated Physical Security Market at End-User Prices (£m), 1994-1998
Table 6.2: UK Lock Market by Product Sector Excluding Vehicle Locks (£m at msp), 1994-1998
Table 6.3: Apparent Market for Safes and Similar Products by Product Sector (£m at msp) 1994-1998
Table 6.4: International Trade in Locks Other than Vehicle Locks (£m), 1994-1998
Table 6.5: International Trade in Safes, Strongboxes, Armoured or Reinforced Doors, Safe Deposit Lockers for Strongrooms, Cash and Deed Boxes (£m),
1994-1998
Table 6.6: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Household Security Products (£000), 1996-1998
Table 6.7: Forecast Physical Security Market at Constant 1998 End-User Prices (£m), 1998-2003
Vehicle Security
INTRODUCTION
KEY TRENDS
MARKET SIZE
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
MAJOR PLAYERS
BUYING BEHAVIOUR
FORECASTS
Table 7.1: Passenger Car and Commercial Vehicle Production in Great Britain (number of vehicles), 1992-1998
Table 7.2: Passenger Cars Registered in Great Britain (000 vehicles), 1992-1998
Table 7.3: Incidence of Motor Vehicle Theft in England and Wales and in Scotland (000 offences), 1994-1997
Table 7.4: Vehicle Owners Who Were Victims Once or More of Vehicle Crime ( percent), 1991-1997
Table 7.5: Insurance Claims for Motor Vehicle Theft (000 claims and £m), 1994-1998
Table 7.6: Estimated UK Market for Vehicle Security at Current End-User Prices (£m), 1994-1998
Table 7.7: Estimated Breakdown of the UK Vehicle Security Market by Broad Product Sector by Value ( percent at msp), 1997
Table 7.8: Overseas Trade in Vehicle Locks (£m), 1994-1998
Table 7.9: Overseas Trade in Vehicle Alarms (£m), 1994-1998
Table 7.10: Ownership and Purchasing of Car Alarms ( percent of households), 1994-1998
Table 7.11: Amount Spent on Car Alarms in the Last 12 Months ( percent of households purchasing an alarm in the last 12 months), 1997 and 1998
Table 7.12: Forecast Vehicle Security Market at Constant 1998 End-User Prices (£m ), 1999-2003
Fire Protection Equipment
DEFINITION
KEY TRENDS
MARKET SIZE
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
MAJOR PLAYERS
BUYING BEHAVIOUR
FORECASTS
Table 8.1: Fires Within Buildings by Type of Premises (000), 1997
Table 8.2: Number of Casualties from Fires, 1994-1998
Table 8.3: Malicious Fires as a percentage of All Fires by Location, 1997
Table 8.4: Smoke Alarm Ownership ( percent of households), 1993-1997
Table 8.5: Reasons Why Smoke Detectors Did Not Operate (number of fires), 1994-1997
Table 8.6: Effect of Detectors on Death Rate for Fires in Dwellings, 1994-1997
Table 8.7: Effect of Detectors on Speed of Discovery of Fire and Spread of Fire ( percent of fires), 1994-1997
Table 8.8: Estimated UK Fire Protection Market at Current End-User Prices (£m), 1994-1998
Table 8.9: Foreign Trade in Charged and Uncharged Fire Extinguishers (£m), 1994-1998
Table 8.10: Foreign Trade in Fire Extinguishing Preparations and Charges and Charged Extinguishing Grenades (£m), 1994-1998
Table 8.11: Forecasts for the UK Fire Protection Market at Constant 1998 Prices (£m), 1999-2003
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT)
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
OPPORTUNITIES
THREATS
The Future
CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT
FORECAST 1999 TO 2003
Table 10.1: Forecast Construction Output in Great Britain by Value at Constant 1995 Prices (£m), 1998-2001
Table 10.2: Forecast Security and Fire Protection Market (£m at constant 1998 end-user prices), 1999 to 2003
Further Sources
ASSOCIATIONS
PERIODICALS
DIRECTORIES
HOPPENSTEDT BONNIER INFORMATION SOURCES
GOVERNMENT PUBLICATIONS
OTHER SOURCES

Text © 1999 Key Note

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