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KN66011 KEY NOTE INSURANCE MARKET (UK) SEPTEMBER 2001

Editor: Jacob Howard
ISBN: 1-84168-243-8

Our price £225.00

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report focuses primarily on the UK insurance market and on the industry that provides the insurance products. Reference is made to overseas markets in two chapters: Market Overview and Competitor Analysis. This report comes at a time of great change in the industry. There have been many mergers and acquisitions in recent years, foreign ownership of UK insurers has increased, and the downfall of several insurers during 2000 and 2001 has once again put the spotlight on this industry.

Market Overview

Insurance is split into two sectors: long-term and general insurance.
Long-term insurance includes:

General insurance covers:

Key Note estimates that the total UK market in 2000 was £132.53bn, of which £108.28bn (81.7 percent of the total) was long-term insurance and £24.25bn (18.3 percent) was in general insurance.

Most of the market is in the hands of UK-based companies, but some of these are actually owned by foreign insurers.

Insurance is an international business in which the UK, through the 'London Market', plays a big part. The Association of British Insurers (ABI) describes the London Market as the world's leading market for internationally traded insurance and reinsurance. The London Market has around 30 percent of the world's aviation and marine insurance.

UK-based insurance companies derive a growing proportion of their income from overseas. In 2000, Key Note estimates that 15.6 percent of the total market for long-term insurance income came from overseas and that 36 percent of general insurance income was won in overseas markets.

Key Note estimates that, in 2000, there were 827 companies authorised to operate in the UK market and that they employed 229,000 people. Including related organisations and professional practices such as brokers, the insurance industry now employs around 344,000 people.

Lloyd's has recovered from the problems that beset it for many years. Improving profitability, coupled with stronger premium rates globally, mean that its future is more secure. In addition, the top management of the Corporation of Lloyd's have brought in new capital and effectively doubled its insurance capacity since 1997.

Distribution

Distribution channels are an important feature of insurance. There are a number of different channels, including: intermediaries, direct salesforces, tied agents and independent financial advisers. Insurance intermediaries represent a key channel for insurance products, accounting for 50 percent of personal lines general insurance business, 87 percent of commercial lines general insurance business, 40 percent of new yearly premium long-term business and 56 percent of new single premium pensions business.

The Global Context

Key Note estimates that the global market for insurance in 2000 was £1,380bn, of which Europe accounted for £441.6bn and the UK for £132.53bn. The UK market therefore represents 9.6 percent of the global market.

External Influences

A new General Insurance Standards Council was set up in 2000, which has been developing rules and policies in 2001. A government-supported review of the long-term savings market started in June 2001. Meanwhile, a new directive on intermediaries has been drawn up in Brussels. All these external initiatives will have an impact on the UK insurance industry. The big question now is solvency and the financial management of insurance companies. There lurks the possibility of yet more regulation, although as yet there is no inkling of this from the Government.

Claims volumes and costs are likely to rise across a whole number of insurance sectors. The economy's immediate future looks increasingly uncertain. At the same time, some concerns have been expressed about the financial basis for the UK's life and pension funds.

Technologically, there are many changes taking place in the insurance industry. Online insurance is growing, as IT is becoming increasingly important and outsourcing is being seen as a sensible option to deal with the challenges of the market in the future.

Key Trends and Prospects

Some clear patterns are emerging, with the two key ones being a more focused approach by the leading insurers and a hardening of premium rates. The hardening of rates in the UK and internationally is extremely welcome for the insurers, coming as it does after years of generally weak rates. As this report was published in September 2001, a senior executive at CGNU commented that he did not see any weakening of rates in the near future.

Consumer Research

Key Note commissioned NOP World to survey public attitudes towards, and experience of, insurance companies. The survey showed that most people, by their own admission, have little understanding of what their insurance policy gives them. The survey also shows that most people are satisfied with the claims process when they have made a claim.

According to the survey results, fairly few people actually change their insurer. However, in motor insurance and property insurance, 15 percent and 9 percent of people respectively, do change their insurer.

The survey also suggested that people rarely feel that their policies give them value for money. However, satisfaction with the value of motor and property insurance tends to be much higher than for other kinds of insurance, but this may be because people have taken more trouble to ensure that the motor or property policy that they have is right for them.

When people were questioned as to whether they were concerned about the financial health of their insurers, the majority stated that they were not. Only 5 percent expressed such a concern, but those aged 35 to 44 and those in the AB social group (the professional classes) are more inclined to have some worries on this score.

Competitor Analysis

The Competitor Analysis chapter lists the top ten general insurers, the top ten long-term insurers and also the top ten insurers in Europe by market capitalisation. The European table shows the strength of the major German, Swiss and French insurers.

This chapter profiles the 17 largest UK-based companies insurers.

Advertising spending, which has increased by 14 percent in the year to March 2001, is also examined.

INDUSTRY SECTORS

Long-Term Insurance

The long-term insurance market, sometimes called the life and pensions market, accounts for more than 80 percent of the UK insurance market. In the 1980s, it represented around 60 percent of the market and by 1995, 68.4 percent. Since 1995 this market's position relative to general insurance has strengthened enormously.

The ABI estimates that just five insurers account for 42 percent of the market.

Pension policies represent 57.7 percent of this market in terms of market revenue. This sector is growing at a phenomenal rate. Since 1996, the value of occupational pensions, for example, has more than trebled.

Key Note forecasts that the market will grow by 52.4 percent by the year 2006 to stand at £178.24bn.

Motor Insurance

The UK motor insurance sector represents 38 percent of general insurance total premium income. As such, it is the largest sector of the general insurance market. Motor insurance covers more than 27 million vehicles in the UK. Since 1996, premium income has risen by 31.9 percent but most of the increase occurred after 1998. This sector has not made a profit for years. Rising claims and weak premiums have put paid to that hope.

It has become an extremely competitive market, with just five companies accounting for 57 percent of the market by revenue. Half of the top ten insurers are foreign-owned.

Rate increases began to kick in during 2000 and have continued during 2001. Key Note forecasts that between 2001 and 2006 the value of this market will grow by 27.6 percent to £12.72bn.

Property Insurance

Property insurance represents 27 percent of the general insurance market. Key Note estimates that in 2000, premium income from this sector was £6.6bn, which represents an increase of 0.4 percent on the previous year. Figures for 2001 will show a significant rise in income, arising from raised premium rates, which is long overdue, given the losses sustained since 1996 and the high level of claims at the end of 2000.

Total domestic and commercial claims have risen in value by 28.2 percent since 1996 to stand at £3.48bn. Fraudulent claims account for around £250m a year. Both the ABI and the individual insurers are trying to halt the incidence of fraud.

Key Note forecasts that this market will grow in value by 10.4 percent between 2001 and 2006.

Accident and Health Insurance

This sector accounts for 14 percent of the general insurance premium income. Since 1996, the market has grown by 18.7 percent. The ABI estimates that 55 percent of this sector is represented by private medical insurance.

Ten insurers have between them 84 percent of this market. The top five companies have 64 percent of the market, according to estimates by the ABI.

This sector is no longer making healthy profits. In fact, losses are rising as a result of increasing claims value and the costs of administration.

Key Note forecasts that the market will grow by 10.4 percent between 2001 and 2006.

Pecuniary Loss Insurance

Pecuniary loss accounts for only a minor share of the UK insurance market, but it is important. It covers business interruption, credit insurance and mortgage indemnity. Key Note estimates that the value of this sector has grown by 38.7 percent since 1996.

Profitability in this sector has been fairly strong. Since 1997, it has been on a rising trend, with an underwriting profit in 2000 of £2.26bn, according to Key Note estimates. Key Note forecasts that between 2001 and 2006 the market's value will rise by 45.6 percent.

General Liability Insurance

General liability insurance covers a policyholder's legal liability for injury, property damage or financial loss caused to others. This sector covers quite a range of insurance risks, such as product liability, public liability, professional indemnity and employers' liability. Around 39 percent of the market is accounted for by employers' liability insurance.

This is one sector where total income has been declining. Revenues fell by 16 percent between 1996 and 2000, according to Key Note estimates. The sector has made a loss every year from 1996 onwards. Key Note forecasts that between 2001 and 2006 total revenues will increase by 20.5 percent. This scenario flies in the face of the recent trends, but Key Note believes that insurers will have no choice but to raise rates as claims costs rise strongly in the near future.

The Future

Key Note estimates that the total UK insurance market will grow by 35.3 percent between 2001 and 2006 and that long-term insurance will grow by 39.8 percent. These figures need to be set against an economy that looks certain to weaken during 2002. A recession may well be avoided, but a prolonged slowdown does look likely.

There are three continuing developments:

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

INTRODUCTION
Market Overview
Distribution
The Global Context
External Influences
Key Trends and Prospects
Consumer Research
Competitor Analysis
INDUSTRY SECTORS
Long-Term Insurance
Motor Insurance
Property Insurance
Insurance
Pecuniary Loss Insurance
General Liability Insurance
The Future


1. Market Overview

INTRODUCTION
OTHER TERMS
Risk
Home-Foreign Insurance
Excess Loss Insurance
Long Tail
Premium
MARKET SECTORS
Long-Term Insurance
Life Insurance
Death
With-Profits Insurance
Critical Illness
Income Protection
General Insurance
Motor
Property
Accident and Health
Pecuniary Loss
General Liability
THE UK MARKET
The London Market
2000
THE OVERSEAS MARKET
Overseas (£bn and percent), 1999 and 2000
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
1999 and 2000
2000
Insurance Companies
1990-2000
Industry Concentration
1996-2000
1999 and 2000
LLOYD’S
Table 1.8: Underwriting Results for Lloyd’s (£m), 1995-1999
Capacity (number and £bn), 1997-2001
DISTRIBUTION
Direct Salesforces
Direct Selling
Company Agents
Intermediaries
Tied Agents
Advisors
Telephone Selling
Banks/Building Societies
Distribution Channels
( percent share of premium), 1996-2000
Long-Term Insurance Distribution Channels
( percent share of premium), 1996-2000
MARKET SIZE
UK Market
— Net Premium Income (£m), 1996-2000
The European Market
(£bn), 1996-2000
Market
Net Premium Income (£bn), 1996-2000
The Global Market
Net Premium Income (£bn), 1996-2000
the UK Market
PEST ANALYSIS
Political Factors
Regulatory Issues
Europe
Economic Factors
Expected Rise in Claims
for Life and Pension Funds
Outlook
Social Factors
Technological Factors
PROSPECTS

Research

INTRODUCTION
of Insurance
and Sex ( percent of adults), 2001
( percent of adults), 2001
Insurance Claims/Claims Experience
Satisfied
( percent of adults), 2001
2001
Not Satisfied
2001
2001
Changing Insurers
Life
and Sex ( percent of adults), 2001
2001
Motor
and Sex ( percent of adults), 2001
2001
Medical
and Sex ( percent of adults), 2001
2001
Property
and Sex ( percent of adults), 2001
( percent of adults), 2001
Pension
2001
2001
Value for Money?
Life
adults), 2001
2001
Motor
( percent of adults), 2001
2001
Medical
( percent of adults), 2001
2001
Property
( percent of adults), 2001
adults), 2001
Pension
and Sex ( percent of adults), 2001
2001
Insurers
( percent of adults), 2001
2001


3. Competitor Analysis

CONTEXT
2001
2001
MARKET LEADERS
Income (£m), 1999
Aegon UK PLC
Provincial Holdings PLC)
Barclays Life Assurance Company Ltd
BUPA Ltd
CGNU PLC
Cornhill Insurance PLC
Credit Suisse First Boston
Direct Line Insurance PLC
Society
GE Insurance Holdings Ltd
Legal & General PLC
Lloyds TSB Group PLC
Society Ltd
Prudential Assurance PLC
Group PLC
Standard Life Assurance Company
Zurich Financial Services
OTHER COMPANIES
PROMOTION
2000 and 2001


4. Long-Term Insurance

INTRODUCTION
INSURANCE
1996-2000
MARKET COMPOSITION
1996-2000
INDIVIDUAL LIFE YEARLY PREMIUMS
and Non-Linked (£m), 1996-2000
BUSINESS
1996-2000
PERSONAL PENSIONS
1996-2000
FORCE
Schemesin Force — Premium Income (£m), 1996-2000
ANNUITIES
1996-2000
INCOME PROTECTION
1996-2000
BENEFITS PAID
of Benefits Paid on UK Long-Term Insurance, 1996-2000
FORECASTS
(£m), 2001-2006
1996-2006


5. Motor Insurance

INTRODUCTION
REVENUES
1996-2000
PROFITABILITY
(£m), 1996-2000
CLAIMS
1996-2000
MOTOR THEFT
and Cost (000 and £m), 1996-2000
CLAIMS EXPERIENCE
1996-2000
1996-2000
LEADING INSURERS
(000 vehicles and £m), 2000
FORECASTS
2001-2006
1996-2006


6. Property Insurance

INTRODUCTION
REVENUES
1996-2000
INSURANCE PROVIDERS
PROFITABILITY
1996-2000
CLAIMS
1996-2000
1996-2000
1996-2000
FRAUD
of Fires, 1996-2000
FORECASTS
(£m), 2001-2006
1996-2006


7. Accident and Health Insurance

INTRODUCTION
REVENUE
(£m), 1996-2000
PROFITABILITY
(£m), 1996-2000
CLAIMS
(£m), 1996-2000
INSURANCE
1996-2000
FORECASTS
2001-2006
(£m), 1996-2006
Insurance
TOTAL PECUNIARY LOSS INSURANCE MARKET
1996-2000
PROFITABILITY
(£m), 1996-2000
CREDIT INSURANCE
FORECASTS
(£m), 2001-2006
(£m), 1996-2006
Insurance
INTRODUCTION
REVENUES
(£m), 1996-2000
PROFITABILITY
(£m), 1996-2000
INDEMNITY
FORECASTS
2001-2006
Figure 9.1: UK General Liability Market (£m), 1996-2006
Threats
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
OPPORTUNITIES
THREATS


11. The Future

ECONOMY
MARKET FORECAST
(£m), 2001-2005
ACQUISITIONS
CONSUMER BRANDED INSURANCE
ONLINE INSURANCE


12. Further Sources

Associations
Publications
Directories
General Sources
Sources
Government Publications
Other Sources

Key Note Research

The Key Note Range of Reports

Text © 2001 Key Note

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Last updated by Jacob van Eldik 24th October 2001