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Executive Summary

Table of Contents

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

Market Definition

INTRODUCTION

MARKET SECTORS

MARKET POSITION

MARKET TRENDS

Table 1: Passenger Transport by Mode (billion passenger kilometres and percent), 1990-1997

Market Size

TOTAL MARKET

MARKET SECTORS

INTERNATIONAL RAIL TRAVEL

A EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE

Table 2: Passenger Receipts on Main Railway Networks (£m and percent), 1992/1993-1996/1997

Table 3: London Underground Passenger Receipts by Type of Ticket (£m), 1992/1993-1996/1997

Industry Background

RECENT HISTORY

INDUSTRY CONCENTRATION

EMPLOYMENT

TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

Table 4: Employment in Transport and Related Industries in the UK (000), March 1993-1997

Competitor Analysis

THE MARKETPLACE

MARKET LEADERS AND THEIR FRANCHISES

SMALLER PARTICIPANTS IN THE RAIL PASSENGER INDUSTRY

ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION

Table 5: Rail Franchise Holders and Franchises by Passenger Revenue and Market Share (£m and percent), 1997

Table 6: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Rail Travel (£000), Year Ending December 1996 and 1997

Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT)

STRENGTHS

WEAKNESSES

OPPORTUNITIES

THREATS

Buying Behaviour

CUSTOMER PENETRATION

Table 7: Number of Hours Per Week Spent Travelling by Major Modes of Transportation ( percent of adults), 1997

Table 8: Frequency of Use of the Major Forms of Public Transport ( percent of adults), 1997

Outside Suppliers to the Industry

ROLLING STOCK LEASING COMPANIES

ROLLING STOCK MANUFACTURERS

RAILTRACK PLC

Current Issues

PRIVATISATION OF THE LONDON UNDERGROUND

LABOUR'S INTERGRATED TRANSPORT POLICY

INTRODUCTION OF COMPETITION ON FRANCHISED SERVICES

CHANNEL TUNNEL RAIL LINK

INTRODUCTION OF TILTING TRAINS

CORPORATE ACTIVITY

Forecasts

INTRODUCTION

INCENTIVES TO GROWTH

FUTURE TRENDS

FORECASTS 1997 TO 2002

Table 10: Market Forecasts for Passenger Receipts (£m), 1997/1998-2001/2002

Company Profiles

INTRODUCTION

DEFINITIONS

FURTHER INFORMATION

Further Sources

ASSOCIATIONS

PERIODICALS

DIRECTORIES

GENERAL SOURCES

HBI UK INFORMATION SOURCES

GOVERNMENT PUBLICATIONS

OTHER SOURCES

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In 1995/1996, the UK rail travel market was estimated to be worth £3.19bn, in terms of passenger receipts. Of this total, £2.38bn was accounted for by the former British Rail network, and £764m was accounted for by the London Underground network. The remainder came from various municipal schemes, such as the Manchester Metrolink and the Sheffield Supertram systems.

The UK rail industry has recently undergone a period of intense change, in the form of privatisation. It is still too early to assess whether the scheme has worked totally, but Key Note believes that the prospects are encouraging. This assessment is based upon the assumption that private sector input into the rail system will bring benefits in terms of management and marketing expertise. However, the fragmentation of the rail network has created problems, such as the doubts over the future of through-ticketing arrangements between franchises. In addition, goodwill towards the private operators has been damaged by Stagecoach Holdings PLC's experience with its South West Trains Ltd (SWT) franchise, where staffing cuts led to unacceptable falls in service levels throughout February and March 1997. The episode has undoubtedly guaranteed a stricter regulatory framework. While the rail passenger market currently consists of 25 separate franchises, further concentration is anticipated. Based on experience in the bus industry, it is expected that the passenger rail market will soon become dominated by five or six major operators, each of which will have a range of transport interests.

Setting aside the issue of new private sector ownership, there are a number of further reasons to believe that the rail industry will undergo a resurgence as the century closes. Firstly, as in other developed countries, there is increasing concern in the UK about the environmental impacts of transport-related activity. Rail transport has an image that is seen as very environmentally-friendly. Moreover, as passenger travel becomes increasingly international in character, the opening of the Channel Tunnel and development of a pan-European rail transport system will give rail travel a significant competitive advantage.

Additionally, the new private operators are starting to invest significantly in new rolling stock, while Railtrack PLC (the owner of the UK's rail infrastructure) is improving day-to-day management of the rail network. As road congestion worsens, and improved service levels gradually alter public perceptions about travelling by train, rail travel's share of the overall passenger market will again start to increase.

Text © 1998 Key Note

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