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ISBN: 1-84168-098-2

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The demand for passenger rail travel in the UK has increased in recent years, from 35 billion passenger kilometres in 1994 to 42 billion in 1998. Key Note estimates that demand rose by a further 6.4 percent in 1999, to reach nearly 45 billion passenger kilometres. The 25 Train Operating Companies (TOCs) represent the most important segment of the market, with 74.9 percent of all passenger receipts in 1998/1999. In 1998/1999, the TOCs were generating around £3.1bn in passenger receipts, a 42.3 percent increase compared with 1994/1995. In the calendar year 1999, revenues on national railways increased by 7.3 percent, to £7.25bn at 1998/1999 prices. In 1998/1999, London Underground represented 23.7 percent of the market for rail travel in terms of passenger receipts. This is a 36 percent increase compared with 1994/1995. Recently developed urban mass transit rail transport systems have significantly increased their passenger receipts, as they benefit from the growing demand for rail travel. Operational performances of the Train Operating Companies have deteriorated in recent years. In 1997/1998, the TOCs paid £8m to the rail authorities under the Punctuality Incentive Regime. £15m was paid out in 1998/1999, reflecting a degradation of the services provided in terms of punctuality. Although the TOCs are severely criticised for their poor service performance, overall public opinion on train journeys is quite positive with 76 percent of train users satisfied. The level of dissatisfaction is nevertheless higher when users are asked their opinion on value for money, with only 41 percent of users being very satisfied. The industry is relatively concentrated, with a stable structure. A total of 11 transport groups manage 25 TOCs, with four transport groups dominating the market. Virgin Rail, Connex Rail, National Express Group and First Group share almost 60 percent of the total passenger miles. The process of renewal of the shorter rail franchises officially started in November 1999, when the Shadow Strategic Rail Authority (SSRA) revealed a new rail map for Britain. The proposed new shape of UK passenger rail network is based on three distinct service groupings and cuts the passenger rail franchises from 25 to 22. Demand is increasing for rail transport and planned investment programmes in the rail network will contribute to an increase in the size of the network. Key Note estimates that rail travel will grow by 40.4 percent over the next 5 years, to reach 59 billion passenger kilometres in 2005/2006.

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Last updated by Jacob van Eldik 24th September 2000