Executive Summary

Table of Contents

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The passenger transport industry is primarily concerned with the movement of passengers on public modes of transport. The most important means of passenger transport is by private car, which accounted for 78.7 percent of the distance travelled on journeys over 1 mile in 1996/1998. During the same period, the average person in Great Britain made around 1,051 journeys per annum (or nearly three journeys per day) of over 1 mile. In many circumstances, travelling by car is an alternative to travelling by public transport.
Government policy has considerable influence with regard to encouraging of the use of public transport and discouraging the use of private cars. Since the beginning of the 1980s, it has been government policy to transfer the ownership of public transport undertakings to the private sector. Following the complete nationalisation of the main railway network by 1997, almost all public passenger transport undertakings in the UK were in the private sector -- with notable exceptions such as London Underground, Manchester Airport and several of the mass transit systems operated by Passenger Transport Executives (PTEs). The aim of the privatisation programme was to increase competition, improve services and stimulate use of the public transport system. The programme would also lead to lower government expenditure on public transport but, at that time, no major initiatives were taken to discourage the use of private cars.
Between 1985 and 1995, the percentage of passenger kilometres travelled on public transport fell in Great Britain from 15.1 percent to 10.8 percent, making Great Britain one of the lowest users of public transport in the western hemisphere. The erosion of the use of public transport has ceased with the percentage of passenger kilometres travelled by rail, bus or air having increased marginally between 1994 and 1998. In 1998, bus and coaches accounted for 6 percent of passenger kilometres, the rail networks accounted for 5.9 percent, and air travel 0.8 percent.
Over the 1994 to 1998 period, passenger use of the rail network increased at a faster rate than the other forms of public transport: the number of passenger kilometres travelled by rail increased by 18.9 percent between 1994/1995 and 1998/1999. However, Key Note forecasts that in 1998/1999, the demand for bus and coach transport will have begun to increase for the first time in many years.
The major consideration for the passenger transport industry in the near future is the impact that the government White Paper issued in July 1999 will have on the industry as a whole. The aim of the policy is to encourage the use of passenger transport and discourage the use of private cars through a framework of national and local plans to be implemented over the next few years. One of the driving forces behind the policy is to reduce the vehicular pollutant emissions, an aim which most consumers support. Consumer research detailed in the report shows that consumers are in favour of positive measures to improve public transport, but are rather more reluctant to accept measures such as higher taxes to discourage the use of cars.
The demand for passenger transport is likely to rise in the short term, as the quality, reliability and value for money of public transport improves and the cost of motoring increases. There is an underlying consumer demand for travelling more and the public transport network will capture some of the increased demand, particularly if there is greater inter-modal cohesion. Inter-modal cohesion is being aided by many of the public transport operators, which now have interests in more than one mode. The largest operators now operate bus and rail services as well as airports. However, there is also greater co-operation between different operators in different modes.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

Market Overview

MARKET DEFINITION

INTRODUCTION

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

PEST ANALYSIS

TOTAL MARKET SIZE

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

Table 1.1: Number of Journeys per Person per Annum by Purpose for Travelling, 1992/1994 and 1996/1998

Table 1.2: Distance Travelled per Person per Annum by Purpose for Travelling (miles), 1992/1994, 1993/1995 and 1996/1998

Table 1.3: Distance Travelled per Person per Annum by Mode of Travel (miles), 1992/1994, 1993/1995 and 1996/1998

Table 1.4: Passenger Transport Kilometres Travelled per Head of Population in Great Britain (billion and 000), 1994-1998

Table 1.5: Passenger Kilometres Travelled by Mode of Transport (billion passenger kilometres and percent), 1994-1998

Table 1.6: Number of Enterprises in the UK Related to Transport, 1998

Table 1.7: Household Expenditure on Travel and Transport (£m per annum and percent), 1994/1995-1997/1998

Table 1.8: Capital Support for Public Transport and the Road System in Great Britain (£m), 1994/1995-1998/1999

Table 1.9: Current Expenditure Support for Public Transport and the Road System in Great Britain (£m), 1994/1995-1998/1999

Table 1.10: Government Expenditure on Nationalised Industries External Finance and National Support for the Railways (£m), 1994/1995-1998/1999

Table 1.11: International Comparison of Passenger Kilometres by Car and Taxi (billion kilometres), 1985 and 1995

Table 1.12: International Comparison of Public Transport Passenger Kilometres as a percentage of Total Passenger Kilometres (billion passenger kilometres

and percent), 1985-1995

Key Note Consumer Research

INTRODUCTION

MESURES TO IMPROVE PUBLIC TRANSPORT

MEASURES TO DICSOURAGE CAR USE

Table 2.1: Which of the Following Do You Think Needs to Be Introduced to Improve the Current Transport/Traffic Situation in Britain? ( percent of adults

agreeing and disagreeing), 1999

Table 2.2: Profile and Penetration of Adults in Agreement With Measures To Improve Transport in Great Britain by Age, Social Class and Region ( percent of

adults agreeing), 1999

Table 2.3: Profile and Penetration of Adults in Agreement With Measures to Discourage the Use of Private Vehicles by Age, Social Class and Region ( percent of

adults agreeing), 1999

Competitor Analysis

INTRODUCTION

MAJOR PLAYERS

INTRODUCTION

MARKET SIZE

CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR

FORECASTS

Table 4.1: Road Network by Length in Great Britain (kilometres and percent), 1994-1998

Table 4.2: Motor Vehicles Licensed in Great Britain (000 vehicles and percent), 1994-1998

Table 4.3: New Vehicle Registrations by Type of Vehicle (000 vehicles and percent), 1994-1998

Table 4.4: Road Traffic by Type of Vehicle (billion vehicle kilometres and percent), 1994-1998

Table 4.5: Motor Vehicle Traffic by Road Class (billion vehicle kilometres and percent), 1994-1998

Table 4.6: Road Transport Passenger Kilometres Travelled by Mode of Transport (billion passenger kilometres and percent), 1994-1998

Table 4.7: Average Household Expenditure on Motoring (£ per week and percent), 1994/1995-1997/1998

Table 4.8: Investment and Maintenance in the Road Infrastructure (£m), 1994/1995-1997/1998

Table 4.9: Projected Road Taxation Revenue and Road Track Costs by Vehicle Class (£m at 1995/1996 prices), 1997/1998

Table 4.10: Penetration For Car Usage by Number of Hours of Travel per Normal Week ( percent of adults), 1995-1999

Table 4.11: Household Penetration of Cars ( percent of households), 1975/1976-1995/1997

Table 4.12: Body Type Cars Licensed by Region (000 vehicles), 1996-1998

Table 4.13: Car Ownership Density Per Head of Population by Region (number of cars per 1,000 people ), 1997

Table 4.14: Road Traffic and Vehicles by Vehicle Kilometres (Index 1997=100), 1987-2011

The Rail Network

INTRODUCTION

MARKET SIZE

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

MAJOR PLAYERS

ADVERTISING

CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR

FORECASTS

Table 5.1: Passenger Kilometres Performed by Main Rail Operations in the UK (million passenger kilometres and percent), First Quarter 1994/1995-1998/1999

Table 5.2: Passenger Journeys Performed by Main Rail Operations in the UK (million and percent), 1994/1995-1998/1999

Table 5.3: Route Structure of Main Rail Operations in the UK by Length of Passenger Track (kilometres and percent), 1994/1995-1998/1999

Table 5.4: Passenger Receipts on Main Railway and Mass Transit Networks (£m and percent), 1994/1995-1998/1999

Table 5.5: Passenger Receipts per Kilometre Travelled on Main Railway Networks (pence per kilometre), 1994/1995-1998/1999

Table 5.6: Passenger Receipts and Main Subsidies and Grants from Central and Local Government on Rail Network (£m), 1994/1995-1998/1999

Table 5.7: Main Rail Franchises by Operating Company and Length of Franchise (years/months), 1999

Table 5.8: Main Rail Franchises by Passenger Miles, 1997/1998 and 1998/1999

Table 5.9: Main Rail Franchises by Train Miles, Passenger Journeys, Route Miles and Number of Stations Operated, 1998/1999

Table 5.10: Main Rail Operating Companies by Market Share (million passenger miles and percent), 1997/1998 and 1998/1999

Table 5.11: London Underground by Number of Passenger Journeys, Distance Travelled and Average Fares (million passenger journeys, million passenger

kilometres, million train kilometres and pence per passenger), 1994/1995-1998/1999

Table 5.12: Glasgow Underground by Track Length, Seating Capacity and Numbers of Locomotives, Railway Carriages and Stations, 1994/1995-1998/1999

Table 5.13: Docklands Light Railway by Track Length and Number of Stations and Railway Cars, 1994/1995-1998/1999

Table 5.14: Greater Manchester Metro Ltd by Track Length, Seating Capacity and Numbers of Locomotives, Railway Carriages and Stations,

1994/1995-1998/1999

Table 5.15: South Yorkshire Supertram Ltd by Number of Tram Stops, Number of Trams and Seating Capacity, 1993/1994-1998/1999

Table 5.16: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Main Rail Services (£000), Year to June 1998 and 1999

Table 5.17: Average Passenger Journey Length on Main Railway Networks (kilometres per passenger journey), 1994/1995-1998/1999

Table 5.18: Ticket Types Purchased on Main Railway and London Underground Networks by Value (£m and percent), 1994/1995-1998/1999

Table 5.19: Penetration for Train and Underground Usage by Number of Hours of Travel per Normal Week ( percent of adults), 1995-1999

Table 5.20: Number of Passengers Entering London During the Morning Peak by Rail (000), 1994-1998

Table 5.21: Penetration for Usage of London Underground and the Main Rail Network by Frequency ( percent of adults), 1995-1999

Table 5.22: Forecast Passenger Receipts by Value (£m), 1998/1999-2002/2003

Bus and Coach Services

INTRODUCTION

MARKET SIZE

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

MAJOR PLAYERS

ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION

CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR

FORECASTS

Table 6.1: Industry Structure of Operators by Vehicle Fleet Size (000), 1993/1994-1997/1998

Table 6.2: Bus Service Market by Value (£m at 1997/1998 pricesÅ), 1993/1994-1997/1998

Table 6.3: Local Authority Support for Local Bus Services by Region (£m), 1993/1994-1997/1998

Table 6.4: Passenger Receipts for Local Bus Services by Area at Current Prices (£m), 1993/1994-1997/1998

Table 6.5: Local Bus Service Passenger Receipts by Area at Constant 1997/1998 PricesÅ (£m and percent), 1993/1994-1997/1998

Table 6.6: Number of Passengers Carried on Local Bus Services by Area (million and percent), 1993/1994-1997/1998

Table 6.7: Passenger Receipts on Non-Local ServicesÅ at Constant 1997/1998 Prices (£m), 1993/1994-1997/1998

Table 6.8: Operating Costs per Vehicle Kilometre for Local Bus Services at Constant 1997/1998 Prices (pence per vehicle kilometre), 1993/1994-1997/1998

Table 6.9: Bus Market Share by Ownership by Passenger Kilometres ( percent), 1998

Table 6.10: The UK's Largest Bus Operators by Share of Passenger Kilometres and Fleet Size ( percent and number of vehicles), 1998

Table 6.11: FirstGroup PLC Financial Results (£m and percent), Year Ending 31st March 1995-1999

Table 6.12: Principal Local Bus and Coach Subsidiary Undertakings of FirstGroup PLC, 1998

Table 6.13: Stagecoach Holdings PLC Financial Results (£m and percent), Year Ending 30th April 1995-1999

Table 6.14: Main UK Bus Operations of Stagecoach Holdings PLC, 1998

Table 6.15: Arriva PLC Financial Results (£m and percent), Year Ending 31st December 1994-1998

Table 6.16: Principal Local Bus and Coach Subsidiary Undertakings of Arriva PLC, 1998

Table 6.17: National Express Group PLC Financial Results (£m and percent), Year Ending 31st December 1995-1998

Table 6.18: The Go-Ahead Group PLC Financial Results (£m and percent), Year Ending June/July 1995-1999

Table 6.19: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Bus and Coach Operators (£000), Year to June 1998 and 1999

Table 6.20: Penetration for Bus Usage by Number of Hours of Travel per Normal Week, Frequency and Occasion of Last Use ( percent of adults), 1995-1999

Table 6.21: Forecast Bus and Coach Traffic and Passenger Receipts (£m and passenger kilometres), 1997/1998-2002/2003

Domestic Air Travel

INTRODUCTION

MARKET SIZE

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

MAJOR PLAYERS

AIRPORT ADVERTISING

AIRLINES

CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR

FORECASTS

Table 7.1: Number of Domestic and International Airport Terminal Passengers (000), 1994-1998

Table 7.2: Number of Domestic Terminal Passengers as a percentage of Total Number of Passengers by Major UK Airport ( percent and 000), 1994-1998

Table 7.3: Domestic Air Passengers by Flights Between Major Cities (number and percent), 1995, 1997 and 1998

Table 7.4: Number of Aircraft in Service by UK Airlines, 1990, 1995 and 1998

Table 7.5: Domestic Air Passenger Market by Scheduled and Non-Scheduled Flights (million passengers and billion passenger kilometres), 1991, 1994 and

1998

Table 7.6: Domestic Air Passenger Seat Occupancy by Scheduled and Non-Scheduled Flights ( percent), 1990-1998

Table 7.7: Domestic Terminal Passenger Traffic by Major UK Airports (000 passengers), 1994-1998

Table 7.8: Share of Domestic Terminal Passengers by Major UK Airports ( percent), 1994-1998

Table 7.9: Industrial Concentration of UK Airport Ownership by Share of Airport Revenues ( percent), 1998

Table 7.10: Domestic Passengers Uplifted On Scheduled Services by Airline (000 and percent), 1995 and 1998

Table 7.11: BAA PLC Financial Results (£m and percent), Year Ending 31st March 1995-1999

Table 7.12: Manchester Airport PLC Financial Results (£m and percent), Year Ending 31st March 1995-1999

Table 7.13: Birmingham International Airport Ltd Financial Results (£m and percent), Year Ending 31st March 1995-1999

Table 7.14: London Luton Airport Ltd Financial Results (£000 and percent), Year Ending 31st March 1996-1998

Table 7.15: Newcastle International Airport Ltd Financial Results (£m and percent), Year Ending 31st March 1995-1999

Table 7.16: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Airports (£000), Year to June 1996-1999

Table 7.17: British Airways PLC Financial Results (£m and percent), Year Ending 31st March 1995-1999

Table 7.18: British Midland Airways Ltd Financial Results (£m and percent), Year Ending 31st December 1994-1998

Table 7.19: Penetration for Air Travel Within the UK by Number of Separate Flights for Business and for Holiday/Pleasure in the Last 3 Years ( percent of

adults), 1995-1999

Table 7.20: Forecast UK Domestic Terminal Passenger Traffic (million passengers), 1998-2003

Domestic Ferries

INTRODUCTION

MARKET SIZE

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

FORECASTS

Table 8.1: Major Domestic Sea Routes by Number of Passengers (000 and percent), 1994-1998

Table 8.2: Main Domestic Ferry Operators by Passenger Shipping Area, 1998

Table 8.3: Forecast Number of Passengers On Major Domestic Sea Routes, 1994-1998

Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT)

STRENGTHS

WEAKNESSES

OPPORTUNITIES

THREATS

The Future

FORECAST 1998/1999 TO 2002/2003

Table 10.1: Forecasts Rail and Bus Passenger Receipts (£m), 1998/1999-2002/2003

Further Sources

ASSOCIATIONS

PERIODICALS

DIRECTORIES

HOPPENSTEDT BONNIER INFORMATION SOURCES

GOVERNMENT PUBLICATIONS

OTHER SOURCES

Text © 1995 Key Note

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