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KEY NOTE Passenger Travel in the UK: March 2004

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This report covers:Passenger travel in the UK, rail, road, by area, London, locally accross England, bus and coach services, rail transport, air transport, airports, airlines, sea transport,

Companies covered include: Arriva, BAA, Heathrow Airport, Gatwick Airport, Stansted Airport, Glasgow Airport, Aberdeen Airport, Southampton Airport, British Airways, British Midland, easyjet, First Group, The Go-Ahead Group, National Express Group, P & O Ferries, Stagecoach Group,

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In the year to March 2003, household expenditure on travel and transport in Great Britain reached £84.66bn, an increase of 2.5% over the previous year at current prices. Key Note estimates that the total number of passenger kilometres increased by 0.9% in 2003, to 753 billion, while the population grew by 0.3%, to 59.18 million. This means that the average person travelled 12,724 kilometres in 2003.

The most important form of passenger transport in Great Britain is the car. Cars and vans account for around 85% of the passenger kilometres performed each year, and motoring expenses take a similar share of household expenditure on travel and transport. The other main modes of passenger transport are bus and coach (6% of passenger kilometres),

rail (6%), air (1%), motor cycle (1%) and pedal cycle (1%).

Public transport is dominated by buses and coaches and the rail network. Over the past 10 to 20 years, the bus and rail networks in Great Britain have been largely deregulated and privatised. Following a period of fragmentation in the bus sector and relative fragmentation across the 25 passenger rail franchises in the mid-1990s, the sectors have become more concentrated and integrated, with the major players in the bus sector also present in the rail sector.

Despite the setback of the Hatfield rail disaster, rail patronage increased at a faster rate than bus patronage between 1998/1999 and 2002/2003. Hatfield highlighted the shortcomings of the national rail network in terms of management and funding. Further funding of the network should help the sector's growth in future years.

One of the most important influences on the market for passenger transport is government policy. Various initiatives, including the White Paper of 1998, the Transport Act of 2000 and the Ten-Year Plan for Transport, have provided the framework, authority and funding for the development of passenger transport in Great Britain. The Government's aim is to reduce pollution and congestion through a shift from private to public transport, but it remains to be seen how successful its efforts will be.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

1. Industry Overview

REPORT COVERAGE

REPORT BACKGROUND

Average Number of Journeys per Year

Table 1.1: Average Number of Journeys per Person per Year

by Purpose of Travel, 1991/1993, 1996/1998,

1999/2001 and 2002

Average Distance Travelled per Year

Table 1.2: Average Distance Travelled per Person per Year

by Purpose of Travel (miles), 1991/1993, 1996/1998,

1999/2001 and 2002

Table 1.3: Average Distance Travelled per Person per Year

by Mode of Transport (miles), 1991/1993, 1996/1998,

1999/2001 and 2002

The Government's Ten-Year Plan for Transport

By Sector

Rail

Road

By Area

London

Locally Across England

ECONOMIC TRENDS

Population

Table 1.4: UK Resident Population Estimates

by Sex (000), Mid-Years 1998-2002

Disposable Income and Inflation

Table 1.5: Gross Disposable Income in the UK

and Annual Increase in Retail Price Index

(£m and %), 1998-2002

MARKET SIZE

By Volume

Table 1.6: Volume of Passenger Travel in Great Britain

(billion passenger kilometres, 000 population and

average kilometres per capita), 1998-2002

By Value

Table 1.7: Household Expenditure on Travel and Transport

in Great Britain (£m), Years to March 1999-2003

MARKET SEGMENTATION

By Volume

Table 1.8: Volume of Passenger Travel in Great Britain

by Mode of Transport (billion passenger kilometres and %), 1998-2002

By Value

Household Expenditure

Table 1.9: Household Expenditure on Travel and Transport

in Great Britain by Category (£ per week, number of households, £m and %), Years to March 1997-2001

Government Expenditure

Table 1.10: Government Capital Expenditure on

Public Transport and the Road System in Great Britain

(£m), Years to March 1999-2003

Table 1.11: Government Current Expenditure on

Public Transport and the Road System in Great Britain

(£m), Years to March 1999-2003

Investment in Transport

Table 1.12: Investment in Selected Categories of

Public Transport and the Road System in Great Britain

by Public and Private Organisations (£m),

Years to March 1998-2002

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

Bus and Coach Services

Rail Transport

Air Transport

Airports

Airlines

Sea Transport

EMPLOYMENT

Table 1.13: Number of Employees in Selected Transport Sectors in Great Britain (000), 1999-2003

DISTRIBUTION

MARKET POSITION

Table 1.14: International Comparison of Demand

for Passenger Transport (billion passenger kilometres),

1991 and 2001

Table 1.15: International Comparison of Demand

for Passenger Transport by Bus and Rail

(billion passenger kilometres and %), 1991 and 2001

KEY TRENDS

LEGISLATION

KEY TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

Association of Train Operating Companies

Civil Aviation Authority

Confederation of Passenger Transport

2. PEST Analysis

POLITICAL FACTORS

ECONOMIC FACTORS

SOCIAL FACTORS

TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS

3. Key Note Primary Research

SURVEY OVERVIEW

Table 3.1: Factors That Would Encourage People to Make Greater Use of Public Transport (% of adults), 2003

ANALYSIS BY SOCIO-ECONOMIC GROUP

Expense/Safety

Table 3.2: Factors Affecting the Use of Public Transport —

Cost and Safety (% of adults), 2003

Cleanliness/Everyday Needs

Table 3.3: Factors Affecting the Use of Public Transport —

Cleanliness and Everyday Needs (% of adults), 2003

Reliability/Frequency

Table 3.4: Factors Affecting the Use of Public Transport —

Reliability and Frequency (% of adults), 2003

Subsidies/Fuel Tax Increase

Table 3.5: Factors Affecting the Use of Public Transport —

Subsidies and Fuel Tax Increase (% of adults), 2003

Car Bans/Car Tax Increase

Table 3.6: Factors Affecting the Use of Public Transport —

Car Bans and Car Tax Increase (% of adults), 2003

More Routes/Less Crowded

Table 3.7: Factors Affecting the Use of Public Transport —

Routes and Personal Space (% of adults), 2003

4. Competitive Structure

INTRODUCTION

Table 4.1: Selected Leaders in the UK Passenger-Transport Industry by Sector and Activities, 2003

MARKET LEADERS

Arriva PLC

Company Structure

Financial Results

BAA PLC

Company Structure

Heathrow Airport

Gatwick Airport

Stansted Airport

Glasgow Airport

Edinburgh Airport

Aberdeen Airport

Southampton Airport

Financial Results

British Airways PLC

Company Structure

Financial Results

British Midland PLC

Company Structure

Financial Results

easyJet PLC

Company Structure

Financial Results

FirstGroup PLC

Company Structure

Financial Results

The Go-Ahead Group PLC

Company Structure

Financial Results

National Express Group PLC

Company Structure

Financial Results

P&O Ferries (Peninsular and Oriental Steam Navigation Company)

Company Structure

Financial Results

Stagecoach Group PLC

Company Structure

Financial Results

5. Road Transport

INTRODUCTION

The Road Network

Table 5.1: Road Network Mileage in Great Britain

(kilometres and %), 1998-2002

The Vehicle Parc

Table 5.2: Number of Motor Vehicles Licensed

in Great Britain by Type (000 and %), 1998-2002

New Vehicle Registrations

Table 5.3: Number of New Vehicle Registrations

in Great Britain by Type (000 and %), 1998-2002

Road Traffic

Table 5.4: Road Traffic in Great Britain by Type of Vehicle

(billion vehicle kilometres and %), 1998-2002

Motor-Vehicle Traffic

Table 5.5: Motor-Vehicle Traffic in Great Britain by Class

of Road (billion vehicle kilometres and %), 1998-2002

MARKET SIZE

By Volume

Table 5.6: Volume of Passenger Travel in Great Britain

by Mode of Transport (billion passenger kilometres and %), 1998-2002

By Value

Household Expenditure

Table 5.7: Household Expenditure on Travel and Transport

in Great Britain by Category (£ per week, number of households, £m and %), Years to March 1997-2001

Expenditure on the Road Network

Table 5.8: Expenditure on the Road Network

in Great Britain (£m), Years to March 1998-2002

Road Taxation

Table 5.9: Road Taxation in Great Britain by Type of Vehicle

(000 vehicles and £m), Year to March 2002

CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR

Duration of Car Use

Table 5.10: Duration of Car Use per Week

(% of adults), 1999-2003

Car Ownership

Table 5.11: Penetration of Car Ownership in Great Britain

(% of households), 1985/1986-1999/2001

By Region

Table 5.12: Number of Body-Type Cars Licensed in Great Britain

by Region (000), 1993, 2001 and 2002

Table 5.13: Density of Car Ownership in Great Britain

by Region (number of cars per 1,000 population), 2002

FORECASTS

Table 5.14: Forecast Road Traffic in England and Forecast Car Ownership in Great Britain (indices 2000=100), 2010

6. Bus and Coach Services

INTRODUCTION

Recent History

The Bus Fleet

Table 6.1: The Bus Fleet in Great Britain

by Size of Vehicle (000), Years to March 1998-2002

MARKET SIZE

The Total Market

Table 6.2: The Market for Bus and Coach Services

in Great Britain by Value at Constant 2002/2003 Prices

and Volume (£m and million), Years to March 1999-2003

Government Support

Table 6.3: Government Support for Local Bus Services

by Type at Constant 2002/2003 Prices (£m),

Years to March 1999-2003

Local Services

Passenger Receipts at Current Prices

Table 6.4: Local Bus Services — Passenger Receipts by Area

at Current Prices (£m), Years to March 1999-2003

Passenger Receipts at Constant 2002/2003 Prices

Table 6.5: Local Bus Services — Passenger Receipts by Area

at Constant 2002/2003 Prices (£m and %),

Years to March 1999-2003

Number of Passenger Journeys

Table 6.6: Local Bus Services — Number of Passenger Journeys by Area (million and %), Years to March 1999-2003

Operating Costs

Table 6.7: Local Bus Services — Operating Costs by Area

at Constant 2002/2003 Prices (pence per vehicle kilometre), Years to March 1999-2003

Non-Local Services

Table 6.8: Non-Local Bus Services — Passenger Receipts

at Constant 2002/2003 Prices (£m and %),

Years to March 1999-2003

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

Number of Businesses

Table 6.9: Number of UK VAT-Based Bus and Coach Operators

by Turnover Sizeband (£000), 1999-2003

Employment

Table 6.10: Number of Bus and Coach Staff

by Type of Job (000), Years to March 1995-2003

Working Hours and Wages

Table 6.11: Average Weekly Hours and Average Weekly Wages

at Current Prices in the Bus and Coach Industry

(hours and £), 1994-2002

MAJOR PLAYERS

Table 6.12: The UK's Largest Bus Operators

by Share of Local Services (%), 2003

MARKETING ACTIVITY

Table 6.13: Main Media Advertising Expenditure

by Bus and Coach Operators (£000),

Year to September 2003

CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR

The Influence of Car Ownership

Table 6.14: Use of Local Bus Services in Relation to

Household Car Ownership (mileage per person per year),

1989/1991-1999/2001

Purpose of Bus Use

Table 6.15: Breakdown of Local Bus Journeys

by Purpose of Journey (% of journey stages and

% of mileage per year), 1999/2001

By Age and Sex

Table 6.16: Breakdown of Local Bus Journeys

by Purpose of Journey by Age and Sex (% of journey stages and % of mileage per year), 1999/2001

Duration, Frequency and Recency of Bus Use

Table 6.17: Duration, Frequency and Recency of Bus Use

(% of adults), 1999-2003

FORECASTS 2004 TO 2008

Table 6.18: The Forecast Market for Bus and Coach Services

in Great Britain by Value at Current Prices (£m),

Years to March 2004-2008

7. Rail Transport

INTRODUCTION

Recent History

The Rail Network

Table 7.1: Length of Passenger Track Used by the

Main Rail Operations in Great Britain (kilometres and %),

Years to March 1999-2003

MARKET SIZE

By Volume

Table 7.2: Demand for Passenger Travel on the

Main Rail Operations in Great Britain (million passenger kilometres and %), Years to March 1999-2003

Table 7.3: Number of Passenger Journeys on the

Main Rail Operations in Great Britain (million and %),

Years to March 1999-2003

By Value

Passenger Receipts

Table 7.4: Passenger Receipts for the Main Rail Operations

in Great Britain (£m and %), Years to March 1999-2003

Table 7.5: Passenger Receipts per Kilometre Travelled

on the Main Rail Operations in Great Britain (pence),

Years to March 1999-2003

Government Support

Table 7.6: Main Government Subsidies and Grants for the

Main Rail Operations in Great Britain (£m and %),

Years to March 1999-2003

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

Number of Businesses

Table 7.7: The Main Passenger Rail Franchises in Great Britain

by Owner and Size (million passenger kilometres and

million train kilometres), Year to March 2003

Market Shares

Table 7.8: The Main Passenger Rail Franchises in Great Britain by Route Kilometres and Number of Stations Operated,

Year to March 2003

Table 7.9: The Main Passenger Rail Franchises in Great Britain

by Number of Passenger Journeys (000),

Years to March 2001-2003

Table 7.10: The Main Passenger Rail Operators in Great Britain

by Passenger Kilometres (million and %), Year to March 2003

MAJOR PLAYERS

Centro West Midlands

Table 7.11: Centro West Midlands — Operating Statistics

(million, £m, pence and number), Years to March 2000-2003

Croydon Tramlink

Table 7.12: Croydon Tramlink — Operating Statistics

(million, £m, pence and number), Years to March 2001-2003

Docklands Light Railway

Table 7.13: Docklands Light Railway — Operating Statistics