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Executive Summary

Table of Contents

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The bus and coach service market in 1996/1997 was worth £4.5bn, an increase of 3.5 percent on 1995/1996. Passenger receipts accounted for around £3.6bn or 79 percent of the market. In 1997/1998, Key Note estimates that passenger receipts will have increased by 4.5 percent to reach a value of £3.8m.

Local bus services account for more than three-quarters of the bus and coach market by value, including government support and concessionary fare re-imbursement from local authorities. In 1996/1997, the total value of local bus receipts was £2.52bn, 16.7 percent greater than 1992/1993 (5.8 percent in real terms). At the same time that passenger receipts have increased, bus and coach operating costs have more than halved since 1985. Key Note estimates that the number of passengers on local bus journeys increased by 1 percent in 1997 although the total market in terms of passenger kilometres may have contracted.

The increasing efficiency of the bus and coach industry is a direct result of the deregulation and privatisation of the industry. In 1985/1986, 92 percent of local bus services and 97 percent of passengers were in the hands of the public sector. By 1996/1997 only 5 percent of services and 7 percent of passengers remained in the public sector. Initially, deregulation led to an explosion in the number of bus operators, but over a short period the industry has matured and consolidated into a position where the top five operators control two-thirds of the local bus service market, and one operator controls three-quarters of express services.

Competition and the improvement in bus services have stemmed the rapid decline in the use of bus services, and use has more or less levelled in the 1990s. The bus industry appears ready to reverse the decline with the backing of the Government's White Paper on Transport -- A New Deal for Transport: Better for Everyone -- published in July 1998. The White Paper establishes a framework for an integrated transport policy to tackle the increasing problems of road traffic congestion and pollution. The main aim of the integrated transport policy is to encourage people to walk, cycle or take public transport, rather than drive.

Key Note forecasts that the number of passengers on local bus services will increase by 2.3 percent between 1997/1998 and 2000/2001 to reach 4.5 billion passengers.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

Market Definition

INTRODUCTION

MARKET SECTORS

MARKET POSITION

MARKET TRENDS

Table 1: Passenger Transport by Mode (billion passenger kilometres), 1955-1997

Table 2: Bus and Coach Operators' Passenger Receipts by Type of Service (£m), 1990/1991-1996/1997

Table 3: Passenger Transport Price Indices (1995=100), 1989/1990-1996/1997

Table 4: Local Bus Operations by Vehicle Kilometres and Passenger Numbers (million), 1985/1986-1996/1997

Market Size

THE TOTAL MARKET

Table 5: Bus Service Market (£m, million kilometres and percent), 1993/1994-1997/1998

Table 6: Local Bus Services - Passenger Receipts by Area at Current Prices (£m), 1993/1994-1997/1998

Table 7: Local Bus Service Passenger Receipts by Area at Constant 1996/1997 PricesÅ (£m and percent), 1993/1994-1997/1998

Table 8: Number of Passengers Carried on Local Bus Services by Area (million), 1993/1994-1997/1998

Table 9: Local Bus Service Total Receipts at Constant 1996/1997 Prices (£m), 1992/1993-1997/1998

Table 10: Government Support for Local Bus Services at Constant 1996/1997 Prices (£m), 1990/1991-1997/1998

Table 11: Local Bus Service Fare Indices by Area at Constant 1996/1997 Prices (1995=100), 1992/1993-1996/1997

Table 12: Local Bus Service Breakdown of Operators' Income at Constant 1996/1997 Prices ( percent), 1992/1993-1996/1997

Table 13: Local Bus - Commercial and Subsidised Services Outside London (million vehicle kilometres and percent), 1986/1987-1996/1997

Table 14: Passenger Receipts on Non-Local Coach Services at Constant 1996/1997 Prices (£m), 1989/1990-1997/1998

Table 15: Vehicle Kilometres on Non-Local Coach Services (million kilometres), 1985/1986-1996/1997

Table 16: Local Bus Services - Operating Costs per Vehicle Kilometre at Constant 1996/1997 Prices (pence per vehicle kilometre), 1991/1992-1996/1997

Table 17: Bus and Coach Vehicle Stock by Type of Vehicle (000), 1985/1986-1996/1997

Table 18: Age Distribution of the Industry's Vehicle Stock ( percent and 000), 1985-1996

Table 19: International Comparison of Car and Taxi Usage by Passenger Kilometres (billion passenger kilometres and percent), 1985 and 1995

Table 20: International Comparison of Bus, Coach and Rail Usage by percentage of Passenger Kilometres ( percent), 1985 and 1995

Industry Background

RECENT HISTORY

INDUSTRY CONCENTRATION

TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

Table 21: Number of Bus and Coach Operators by Turnover (£000), 1998

Table 22: Local Bus Services - The Move from Public to Private Sector, 1985/1986-1996/1997

Table 23: Bus and Coach Staff by Type of Employment (000), 1985/1986-1996/1997

Table 24: Average Weekly Wages and Hours in the Bus and Coach Industry at Current Prices (£ and hours), 1986-1997

Table 25: Average Weekly Wages in the Bus and Coach Industry at Constant 1997 Prices (£), 1986-1997

Competitor Analysis

THE MARKETPLACE

MAJOR COMPANIES

ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION

Table 26: Bus Market Share by Type of Ownership ( percent), 1998

Table 27: The UK's Largest Bus Operators, 1998

Table 28: Principal Local Bus and Coach Subsidiary Undertakings of First Group PLC, 1998

Table 29: Main UK Bus Companies Operated by Stagecoach Holdings PLC, 1998

Table 30: Principal Local Bus and Coach Subsidiary Undertakings of Arriva PLC, 1998

Table 31: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Bus and Coach Operators (£000 and percent), Year Ending June 1997 and 1998

Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT)

STRENGTHS

WEAKNESSES

OPPORTUNITIES

THREATS

Buying Behaviour

CAR OWNERSHIP AND INCOME

AGE, SEX AND RESIDENCY

FREQUENCY AND RECENCY OF BUS USE

Table 32: The Use of Local Bus Services in Relation to Car Access and Income (number of journey stages per person per year), 1994-1996

Table 33: The Use of Public Transport in Relation to Income (number of journey stages per person per year), 1994-1996

Table 34: Frequency and Use of Local Buses by Area ( percent of households), 1994-1996

Table 35: Local Bus Patronage by Age, Sex and Area (mileage and journey stages per person per year), 1994-1996

Table 36: Duration, Frequency and Recency of Bus Usage ( percent of all bus users), 1998

Outside Suppliers to the Industry

UK PRODUCTION OF BUS AND COACHES

UK BUS AND COACH SALES

SUPPLIER STRUCTURE

MAJOR SUPPLIERS

Table 37: UK Production of Buses and Coaches, 1987-1998

Table 38: UK Bus and Coach Sales (number of vehicles), 1993-1998

Table 39: UK Bus Production by Manufacturer (units), 1996-1998

Table 40: UK Bus and Coach Registrations by Manufacturer (units and percent), 1996-1998

Current Issues

GOVERNMENT WHITE PAPER

SAFETY STANDARDS

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

QUALITY

Forecasts

GOVERNMENT POLICY

FORECASTS 1998/1999 TO 2000/2001

Table 41: Forecast Indices of Road Traffic and Vehicles by Vehicle Kilometres (lower and upper forecasts - 1996=100), 1996-2031

Table 42: Forecasts of Passenger Volumes and Vehicle Kilometres on Local Bus Services (million), 1998/1999-2000/2001

Company Profiles

INTRODUCTION

DEFINITIONS

FURTHER INFORMATION

Further Sources

ASSOCIATIONS

PERIODICALS

DIRECTORIES

GENERAL SOURCES

HBI UK INFORMATION SOURCES

GOVERNMENT PUBLICATIONS

OTHER SOURCES

Text © 1998 Key Note

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