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Table of Contents

Executive Summary

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

Market Definition

MARKET SECTORS

MARKET POSITION

MARKET TRENDS

Table 1: Passenger Transport by Mode(billion passenger kilometres), 1955-1996

Table 2: Bus and Coach Operators' Passenger Receipts by Type of Service (£m), 1990/1991-1995/1996

Table 3: Passenger Transport Price Indices (1992=100),1986/1987-1995/1996

Table 4: Local Bus Operations by Vehicle Kilometres and Passenger Numbers (million), 1985/1986-1995/1996

Market Size

THE TOTAL MARKET

DIVERSIFICATION STRATEGIES

A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

Table 5: Local Bus Services - Passenger Receipts by Area at Current Prices (£m), 1991/1992-1995/1996

Table 6: Local Bus Service Passenger Receipts by Area at Constant 1995/1996 Prices (£m and percent), 1991/1992-1995/1996

Table 7: Number of Passengers Carried on Local Bus Services by Area (million), 1991/1992-1995/1996

Table 8: Local Bus Service Total Receipts at Constant 1995/1996 Prices (£m), 1985/1986-1995/1996

Table 9: Government Support for Local Bus Services at Constant 1995/1996 Prices (£m), 1985/1986-1995/1996

Table 10: Local Bus Service Fare Indices by Area at Constant 1995/1996 Prices in Great Britain (1992=100), 1991/1992-1995/1996

Table 11: Local Bus Service Breakdown of Operators' Income at Constant 1995/1996 Prices ( percent), 1990/1991-1995/1996

Table 12: Local Bus - Commercial and Subsidised Services Outside London (million vehicle kilometres and percent), 1986/1987-1995/1996

Table 13: Passenger Receipts on Non-Local (Coach) Services at Constant 1995/1996 Prices (£m), 1985/1986-1995/1996

Table 14: Vehicle Kilometres on Non-Local Coach Services(million kilometres), 1985/1986-1995/1996

Table 15: Local Bus Services - Operating Costs per Vehicle Kilometre at Constant 1995/1996 Prices(pence per vehicle kilometre), 1990/1991-1995/1996

Table 16: Bus and Coach Vehicle Stock by Type of Vehicle (000), 1985/1986-1995/1996

Table 17: Age Distribution of the Industry's Vehicle Stock ( percent and 000), 1985-1996

Table 18: International Comparison of Car and Taxi Usage by Passenger Kilometres (billion passenger kilometres and percent),1984 and 1994

Table 19: International Comparison of Bus, Coach and Rail Usage by percentage of Passenger Kilometres ( percent), 1984 and 1994

Industry Background

RECENT HISTORY

INDUSTRY CONCENTRATION

INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION

TOWARDS REREGULATION OF THE BUS INDUSTRY

EMPLOYMENT

TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

Table 20: Number of Bus and Coach Operators by Turnover Size, 1996/1997

Table 21: Local Bus Services - The Shift from Public to Private Sector, 1985/1986-1995/1996

Table 22: Bus and Coach Staff by Type of Employment (000), 1985/1986-1995/1996

Table 23: Average Weekly Wages and Hours in the Bus and Coach Industry at Current Prices (£ and hours), 1986-1996

Table 24: Average Weekly Wages in the Bus and Coach Industry at Constant 1996 Prices (£), 1986-1996

Competitor Analysis

THE MARKETPLACE

MAJOR COMPANIES

ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION

Table 25: Market Share by Ownership ( percent), January 1997

Figure 1: Market Share by Ownership ( percent), January 1997

Table 26: The UK's 10 Largest Bus Operators

Table 27: Bus Companies Taken Over by Stagecoach, 1994-1996

Table 28: The Berks Bucks Bus Company Fleet Summary(number of vehicles), August 1996

Table 29: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Bus and Coach Operators (£000 and percent), 12 Months to September 1995 and 1996

Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT)

STRENGTHS

WEAKNESSES

OPPORTUNITIES

THREATS

Buying Behaviour

CONSUMER PENETRATION

Table 30: The Use of Local Bus Services in Relation to Car Access and Income (number of journey stages per person per year),1993-1995

Table 31: The Use of Public Transport in Relation to Income (number of journey stages per person per year), 1993-1995

Table 32: Local Bus Patronage by Age, Sex and Area (journey stages per person per year), 1993-1995

Table 33: Local Bus Patronage by Age, Sex and Area(mileage per person per year), 1993-1995

Table 34: Duration, Frequency and Recency of Bus Usage( percent of all bus users), 1994 and 1996

Table 35: Average Waiting Time as a percentage of Overall Journey Time, 1985/1986, 1989/1991 and 1993/1995

Table 36: Respondents' Suggested Improvements to Local Bus Services by Region ( percent), 1993/1994

Outside Suppliers to the Industry

UK PRODUCTION OF BUSES AND COACHES

THE UK'S LEADING SUPPLIERS OF BUSES AND COACHES

Table 37: UK Production of Buses and Coaches, 1987-1996

Table 38: UK Bus and Coach Sales (number of vehicles), 1991-1996

Table 39: UK Bus and Coach Sales by Manufacturer (units and percent), 1994-1996

Table 40: UK Bus and Coach Registrations, 1995/1996

Current Issues

THE GREENING OF THE BUS INDUSTRY

IMPROVING LOCAL BUS SERVICES

TRANSPORT POLICY PROPOSALS FROM THE LABOUR PARTY

Forecasts

THE WAY FORWARD

FORECAST ROAD TRAFFIC AND VEHICLES

Table 41: Forecast Indices of Road Traffic and Vehicles by Vehicle Kilometres (lower and upper forecasts, 1995=100), 1995-2025

Table 42: Forecasts of Passenger Volumes and Vehicle Kilometres on Local Bus Services (million), 1996/1997-1999/2000

Company Profiles

INTRODUCTION

DEFINITIONS

FURTHER INFORMATION

Further Sources

ASSOCIATIONS

PERIODICALS

DIRECTORIES

GENERAL SOURCES

HBI UK INFORMATION SOURCES

GOVERNMENT PUBLICATIONS

OTHER SOURCES

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In 1995/1996, passenger receipts from bus and coach operations were worth £3.43bn. Of these, local services accounted for 70.2 percent of the total, and non-local services covered the remainder. In real terms, however, passenger revenues from local bus services have fallen by just over 0.3 percent since 1990/1991. Over this 5-year period, coach service revenues grew by 4.5 percent.

The market in local bus services has expanded by an average 1.3 percent per annum since 1990/1991, to be worth some £2.41bn in 1995/1996. Nevertheless, passenger volumes in this sector have fallen by 282 million since 1991/1992, with only the London area recording a rise in bus patronage over this period. In addition to passenger revenues, local bus operators also receive a measure of financial support from the Government. In 1995/1996, this made up 28 percent of the sector's income.

However, Government support for the industry has been cut by 33.4 percent in real terms since 1985/1986, and this has left the bus operators with little alternative but to impose price increases on their customers. The recent decline in passenger volumes is, therefore, partly due to the fact that bus fares have risen by 23 percent in real terms since the industry was deregulated just over a decade ago.

The slump in Government subsidies, combined with the intense competition of the early post-deregulation period, inevitably pared operating margins to a minimum. This affected investment in new vehicles. By 1996, 36 percent of vehicles were over 12 years-old, as compared to 18 percent in 1985. However, improving industry efficiency and the economies of scale enjoyed by modern bus companies, have contributed to a rise in the industry's margins over the past 2 years. This has enabled operators to invest in the renewal of their ageing bus fleets.

Over the past 2 years, a number of official reports have concluded that the bus industry has an important future role to play in helping to overcome the now urgent problems of traffic congestion and urban pollution. Furthermore, after 40 years of decline there are now distinct signs that the local bus market has begun to bottom out, so leaving the industry at the dawn of a new era in which passenger volumes can be expected to grow slowly, but surely, over the coming years. Passenger volumes are expected to increase from 4.39bn in 1996/1997 to 4.46bn in 1999/2000.

Text © 1997 Key Note

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