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KN60000 KEY NOTE BUS AND COACH OPERATORS JULY 2000

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ISBN 1-84168-094-X

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The bus and coach services market reached a value of £4.48bn in 1998/1999. Passenger receipts accounted for 78.1 percent of the market, or 88 percent if concessionary fare reimbursement from local authorities is included, and local bus services represented 66.8 percent of passenger receipts (including concessionary fare reimbursement).
Within Great Britain, England had the highest increase in passenger receipts between 1994/1995 and 1998/1999. Within England, London had a 10.1 percent increase in passenger receipts in real terms, while the figure for other metropolitan areas fell by 1.2 percent. Public support and grants to local bus services have remained a fairly constant proportion of income since the mid-1990s. Concessionary fare reimbursement accounted for 45 percent of all support and grants in 1999. The other subsidies available to operators include direct fuel duty rebate and other local bus services support schemes. The Rural Bus Subsidy Grant was introduced in 1998/1999, and led to 1,845 new or enhanced bus services in rural areas.
The industry’s environment has stabilised following a phase of adjustment to the new market conditions created by the deregulation and privatisation of local bus services in 1985 (outside London) and 1994 (within London). Bus and coach fleets are being upgraded by most of the large operators and bus operating costs consequently fell by 9 percent between 1994 and 1999. The total fleet of vehicles has increased by 16.8 percent since 1985/1986. The trend is towards more cost-efficient and flexible vehicles, and the number of new generation single-decker buses has increased by 45 percent over the same period.
Five top transport groups dominate the industry: FirstGroup, Stagecoach, Arriva, National Express Group and The Go-Ahead Group share 63 percent of the local bus market. All of these five large operators have emphasised their diversification strategies in other countries and other sectors of passenger transport. The degree of concentration of the industry was slightly less pronounced in 1999 than it was in previous years. New operators entered the top range of the market, reflecting both the growth of bus operations as a more profitable activity and a more regulated competitive environment.
Following the 1998 White Paper on Transport, the Government released its £80bn 10-year plan on transport in 1999. Increased use of transport by bus and coach is one of the objectives of the Transport Bill. Local authorities and local bus operators are encouraged to co-operate in the preparation of transport plans through the newly introduced Quality Partnership Schemes.
Key Note estimates that the number of vehicle kilometres will increase by 10.4 percent between 1999/2000 and 2004/2005, reaching almost 3 billion vehicle kilometres in 2005. The number of bus passengers will decrease by 4.3 percent over the same period of time, reflecting a trend towards shorter bus journey in smaller buses by a smaller number of passengers.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary


1. Market Definition


INTRODUCTION
MARKET SECTORS
MARKET POSITION
and percent), 1965-1998
MARKET TRENDS
Table 2: Bus and Coach Operators’ Passenger Receipts by Type of Service at Constant 1998/1999 Prices (£m), 1994/1995-1998/1999
Table 3: Passenger Transport Price Indices at Current and Constant 1995 Prices (1995=100), 1992/1993-1998/1999
Table 4: Local Bus Operations by Vehicle Kilometres and Passenger Numbers (million and index 1990/1991=100), 1990/1991-1998/1999
PERSPECTIVE
and percent), 1985 and 1995
Table 6: European Comparison of Bus and Coach Usage with Rail Usage (passenger kilometres per person), 1990 and 1997


2. Market Size


THE TOTAL MARKET
1998/1999
LOCAL BUS SERVICES
By Value
Passenger Receipts by Area at Current Prices
Table 8: Local Bus Services — Passenger Receipts by Area at Current Prices (£m), 1994/1995-1998/1999
Prices
Table 9: Local Bus Services — Passenger Receipts by Area at Constant 1998/1999 Prices (£m and percent), 1994/1995-1998/1999
Government Support
Table 10: Local Bus Services — Government Support at Constant 1998/1999 Prices (£m), 1994/1995-1998/1999
Public Transport Support
1998/1999
Concessionary Fare Reimbursement and Fuel Duty Rebate
Total Receipts by Area at Constant 1998/1999 Prices
Table 12: Local Bus Services — Total Receipts at Constant 1998/1999 Prices (£m), 1994/1995-1998/1999
Fare Indices by Area
Table 13: Local Bus Services — Fare Indices by Area at Constant 1995 Prices (1995=100), 1994/1995-1998/1999
By Volume
by Area
Table 14: Local Bus Services — Number of Passengers Carried by Area (million and percent), 1994/1995-1998/1999
Commercial and Subsidised Services
Table 15: Local Bus Services — Commercial and Subsidised Services Outside London (million vehicle kilometres and percent), 1994/1995-1998/1999
NON-LOCAL BUS SERVICES
By Value
Table 16: Non-Local Bus Services — Passenger Receipts at Constant 1998/1999 Prices (£m), 1994/1995-1998/1999
By Volume
Table 17: Vehicle Kilometres on Non-Local Bus Services (million), 1994/1995-1998/1999
BUS OPERATING COSTS
Table 18: Local Bus Services — Operating Costs at Constant 1996/1997 Prices (pence per vehicle kilometre), 1994/1995-1998/1999
VEHICLE STOCK
Table 19: Bus and Coach Vehicle Stock by Type of Vehicle (000), 1985/1986-1998/1999
Bus Fleets
Table 20: Age Distribution of the Bus & Coach Industry’s Vehicle Stock ( percent), 1990-1998


3. Industry Background


HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
INDUSTRY CONCENTRATION
Table 21: Number of VAT-Registered Bus and Coach Operators by Turnover (£000), 1999
Diversification/Rail Privatisation
The Shift from Public to Private Sector
Table 22: Local Bus Services — The Shift from Public to Private Sector, 1985/1986-1996/1997
EMPLOYMENT
Table 23: Number of Bus and Coach Staff by Type of Employment (000), 1994/1995-1998/1999
Table 24: Average Weekly Wages and Hours in the Bus and Coach Industry at Current Prices (£ and hours), 1994-1999
Table 25: Average Weekly Wages in the Bus and Coach Industry at Constant 1999 Prices (£), 1994-1999
TRADE ASSOCIATIONS
The Confederation of Passenger Transport
Council 31


4. Competitor Analysis


THE MARKETPLACE
Table 26: The UK Bus Market by Type of Ownership ( percent), 2000
MARKET LEADERS 2000
FirstGroup PLC
Table 28: Principal Local Bus and Coach Subsidiary Undertakings of FirstGroup PLC, 2000
Financial Results
Stagecoach Holdings PLC
Table 29: Regional Operating Companies of Stagecoach Holdings PLC, 2000
Financial Results
Arriva PLC
Table 30: Principal Undertakings of Arriva PLC, 2000
Financial Results
Group PLC
Financial Results
The Go-Ahead Group PLC
Financial Results
ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION
Table 31: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Bus and Coach Operators (£000), Year to March 1999 and 2000
and Threats
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
OPPORTUNITIES
THREATS


6. Buying Behaviour


CAR OWNERSHIP AND INCOME
Table 32: Use of Local Bus Services in Relation to Car Access and Income (number of journey stages per person per year), 1996/1998
Table 33: Use of Public Transport in Relation to Income (number of journey stages per person per year), 1996/1998
BUS USE BY AGE, SEX AND RESIDENCY
1997/1998
Table 35: Local Bus Patronage by Age, Sex and Area (number of journey stages and mileage per person per year), 1996/1998
FREQUENCY AND RECENCY OF BUS USE
Table 36: Duration, Frequency and Recency of Bus Usage ( percent of adults), 1996, 1998 and 1999


7. Outside Suppliers to the Industry


UK PRODUCTION OF BUSES AND COACHES
1994-1998
UK BUS AND COACH SALES
1993-1999
SUPPLIER STRUCTURE
Table 39: UK Bus Production by Manufacturer (units), 1996-1999
and percent), 1996-1999


8. Current Issues


ACTION
Bus Travel
Road Congestion
Bus Summit
School Buses
PARTNERSHIPS


9. Forecasts


TO 2004/2005
Table 41: Local Bus Services — Forecast Number of Passengers Carried and Vehicle Kilometres (million), 1999/2000-2004/2005
INCREASING ROAD TRAFFIC
Table 42: Forecast Indices of Road Traffic by Type of Vehicle by Vehicle Kilometres (1998=100), 1998-2031


10. Company Profiles


Arriva PLC
The Go-Ahead Group PLC
Group PLC
Stagecoach Holdings PLC


11. Further Sources


Associations
Periodicals
Directories
General Sources
Sources
Government Publications
Other Sources

Understanding TGI Data

Penetration
Social Grade
Standard Region

Key Note Research

Text © 2000 Key Note

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Last updated by Jacob van Eldik 22nd August 2000