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Executive Summary

Table of Contents

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

Market Definition

DEFINITION

INTRODUCTION

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

EMPLOYMENT

THE TOTAL MARKET

MARKET SEGMENTATION

ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION

PEST ANALYSIS

KEY TRENDS

Table 1.1: Businesses in Catering and Allied Trades by Sector (number and percent), 1997

Table 1.2: Businesses in the Catering and Allied Trades Sector by Turnover Size (number and percent), 1997

Table 1.3: Total UK Industry and Hotels and Restaurants by Employment Size ( percent), 1997

Table 1.4: Employment in Selected Catering Sectors (000), 1995-1998

Table 1.5: The UK Catering Market by Value (£m), 1993-1997

Table 1.6: Consumer Spending on Catering at Current Prices (£m), 1993-1998

Table 1.7: Consumer Spending on Catering at Constant 1990 Prices (£m), 1993-1998

Table 1.8: Consumer Spending on Catering as percentage of Total Consumer Spending at Current Prices (£m), 1988-1998

Table 1.9: The UK Catering Market at Current Prices (£m), 1993-1997

Table 1.10: Breakdown of the UK Catering Market ( percent share of sales by sector), 1993-1997

Table 1.11: Main Media Advertising Expenditure in Major UK Catering Sectors (£000), Year Ending June 1997 and 1998

Table 1.12: Gross Value Added at Current Prices - Total and Hotels/Restaurants (£m and percent), 1993-1997

Table 1.13: UK Consumer Confidence Indicator (balance of positive against negative replies), 1995-1998

Table 1.14: UK Tourist Arrivals (000), 1993-1998

Table 1.15: Enterprises and Total Turnover in the Horeca Sector in the European Union (number and ecu million), 1993/1995

Key Note Consumer Research

INTRODUCTION

PUBLIC HOUSE VISITS

Table 2.1: Survey of Consumer Eating-Out and Drinking Habits ( percent agreeing), 1998

Table 2.2: I Eat in Pubs at Least Once a Month ( percent agreeing), 1998

Table 2.3: I Eat in Fish and Chip Shops/Restaurants at Least Once a Month ( percent agreeing), 1998

Table 2.4: I Eat in Chinese Restaurants at Least Once a Month ( percent agreeing), 1998

Table 2.5: I Eat in Indian Restaurants at Least Once a Month ( percent agreeing), 1998

Table 2.6: I Eat in Mexican Restaurants at Least Once a Month ( percent agreeing), 1998

Table 2.7: I Eat in Carveries or Steakhouses at Least Once a Month ( percent agreeing), 1998

Table 2.8: I Eat in US Diners or Bistros at Least Once a Month ( percent agreeing), 1998

Table 2.9: I Eat in Pizza or Pasta Restaurants at Least Once a Month ( percent agreeing), 1998

Table 2.10: I Eat in Fast-Food Burger Outlets at Least Once a Month ( percent agreeing), 1998

Table 2.11: I Eat in Fast-Food Chicken Outlets at Least Once a Month ( percent agreeing), 1998

Table 2.12: I Eat in Thai Restaurants at Least Once a Month ( percent agreeing), 1998

Table 2.13: I Eat in Vegetarian Restaurants at Least Once a Month ( percent agreeing), 1998

Table 2.14: I Often Visit a Pub After Work ( percent agreeing), 1998

Table 2.15: I Visit Pubs at Weekends ( percent agreeing), 1998

Table 2.16: I Visit Pubs at Lunchtime ( percent agreeing), 1998

Table 2.17: I Visit Pubs to Meet Friends ( percent agreeing), 1998

Table 2.18: I Visit Pubs for Celebrations ( percent agreeing), 1998

Table 2.19: I Visit Pubs for Family Occasions ( percent agreeing), 1998

Competitor Analysis

INTRODUCTION

MAJOR PLAYERS

Table 3.1: Major Companies with Interests in More Than One Catering Sector

Table 3.2: Selected Catering Companies by Turnover (£m), 1997/1998

Table 3.3: Market Leaders in Catering Sectors, 1997

Table 3.4: Financial Performance of Allied Domecq PLC (£m and percent), Year Ending 31st August 1995-1997

Table 3.5: Financial Performance of Bass PLC (£m and percent), Year Ending 30th September 1995-1997

Table 3.6: Financial Performance of City Centre Restaurants PLC (£m), Year Ending 31st December 1995-1997

Table 3.7: Financial Performance of Compass Group PLC (£m), Year Ending 28th September 1995-1997

Table 3.8: Financial Performance of Gardner Marchant Ltd (£m and percent), Year Ending 31st October 1995-1997

Table 3.9: Financial Performance of Granada PLC (£m), Year Ending 27th September 1995-1997

Table 3.10: Financial Performance of The Greenalls Group PLC (£m), Year Ending 26th September 1995-1997

Table 3.11: Financial Performance of Ladbroke Group PLC (£m), Year Ending 31st December 1995-1997

Table 3.12: Financial Performance of McDonald's Restaurants Ltd (£m), Year Ending 31st December 1995-1997

Table 3.13: Financial Performance of Nomura Bank International PLC (£m), Year Ending 31st March 1995-1997

Table 3.14: Financial Performance of Scottish & Newcastle PLC (£m), Year Ending 27th April 1996-1998

Table 3.15: Financial Performance of Stakis PLC (£m), Year Ending 28th September 1995-1997

Table 3.16: Financial Performance of Thistle Hotels PLC (£m), Year Ending 28th December 1995-1997

Table 3.17: Financial Performance of Vaux Group PLC (£m), Year Ending 30th September 1995-1997

Table 3.18: Financial Performance of Whitbread PLC (£m), Year Ending 28th February 1996-1998

Restaurants

DEFINITION

KEY TRENDS

MARKET SIZE

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

MAJOR PLAYERS

ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION

BUYING BEHAVIOUR

FORECASTS

Table 4.1: The UK Restaurant Market (£m at rsp), 1993-1997

Table 4.2: Retail Price Index for Restaurant MealsÅ (January 1987=100), 1994-1998

Table 4.3: The UK Pub Restaurant Market (£m at rsp), 1993-1997

Table 4.4: The UK Roadside Catering Market (£m at rsp), 1993-1997

Table 4.5: Number of Restaurant Businesses, 1992-1997

Table 4.6: Restaurant Businesses by Turnover Size (number and percent), 1997

Table 4.7: Major UK Restaurant Operators and Key Brands, 1998

Table 4.8: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Selected Restaurant BrandsÅ (£000), Year Ending June 1996-1998

Table 4.9: Visits to UK Restaurants ( percent adults), 1998

Table 4.10: Profile and Penetration of Visits to Restaurants During the Day ( percent of all adults), 1998

Table 4.11: Profile and Penetration of Visits to Restaurants in the Evening ( percent of all adults), 1998

Table 4.12: Frequency of Visits to Restaurants by British Residents ( percent of all adults), 1998

Table 4.13: Forecast of the UK Restaurant Market (£m), 1998-2002

Fast Food/Takeaways

DEFINITION

KEY TRENDS

MARKET SIZE

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

MAJOR PLAYERS

ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION

BUYING BEHAVIOUR

FORECASTS

Table 5.1: The UK Fast-Food/Takeaway Market (£m at rsp), 1993-1997

Table 5.2: The UK Fast-Food/Takeaway Market by Sector (£m at rsp and percent), 1997

Table 5.3: The UK Sandwiches Market (£m at rsp), 1993-1997

Table 5.4: The UK Burgers Market (£m at rsp), 1993-1997

Table 5.5: The UK Fish and Chips Market (£m at rsp), 1993-1997

Table 5.6: The UK Pizza Market (£m at rsp), 1993-1997

Table 5.7: The UK Chicken Market (£m at rsp), 1993-1997

Table 5.8: The UK Other Fast-Food and Takeaway Market (£m at rsp), 1993-1997

Table 5.9: Leading Coffee Bar Chains by Outlets, 1998

Table 5.10: Estimated Number of Outlets in Selected Fast-Food Markets, 1997

Table 5.11: Estimated Market Shares by Value of Major Fast-Food Brands ( percent), 1998

Table 5.12: Leading Hot Fast-Food/Takeaway Chains by Number of Outlets, 1998

Table 5.3: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Leading Fast-Food Brands (£000), Year Ending June, 1996-1998

Table 5.14: Visits to Takeaway and Fast-Food Restaurants ( percent adults), 1998

Table 5.15: Frequency of Visits to Takeaway and Fast-Food Restaurants ( percent adults), 1998

Table 5.16: Penetration and Profile of Fast-Food and Takeaway Food in the UK ( percent adults), 1998

Table 5.17: Forecasts of the UK Fast-Food/Takeaway Market (£m), 1998-2002

Table 5.18: Forecast of the UK Fast-Food/Takeaway Market by Sector (£m and percent), 2002

Public Houses

DEFINITION

KEY TRENDS

MARKET SIZE

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

MAJOR PLAYERS

ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION

BUYING BEHAVIOUR

FORECASTS

Table 6.1: The UK Public House Market (£m at rsp), 1993-1997

Table 6.2: The UK Public House Catering Market (£m), 1993-1997

Table 6.3: Share of Public House Turnover Taken by Food SalesÅ ( percent), 1988-1997

Table 6.4: The UK Public House Bar Food Sales and Snacks MarketÅ (£m), 1993-1997

Table 6.5: Number of Public Houses and Other Full Licence Holders in the UKÅ, 1990-1998

Table 6.6: Main Groups of Public House Owners by Number of Pubs ( percent), 1992-1998Å

Table 6.7: Leading Multiple Public House Owners by Number of Outlets, 1998

Table 6.8: Selected Public House Brands, 1997

Table 6.9: Frequency of Visits to Public Houses ( percent of all adults), 1996-1998

Table 6.10: Penetration and Profile of Public House Users by Age, Social Grade and Region ( percent adults), 1998

Table 6.11: Breakdown of Users of Public Houses ( percent adults), 1998

Table 6.12: Frequency of Visits to Wine Bars ( percent adults), 1998

Table 6.13: Penetration and Profile of Wine Bar Users by Age, Social Grade and Region ( percent of all adults), 1998

Table 6.14: Forecasts of the UK Public House Catering Market (£m), 1998-2002

Hotels

DEFINITION

KEY TRENDS

MARKET SIZE

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

MAJOR PLAYERS

ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION

BUYING BEHAVIOUR

FORECASTS

Table 7.1: The UK Hotel Market (£m at rsp), 1993-1997

Table 7.2: The UK Hotel Market by Sector (£m), 1997

Table 7.3: UK Budget Hotels - Leading Brands/Operators, 1997

Table 7.4: Number of UK Hotel Businesses, 1992-1997

Table 7.5: Number of Hotels and Bedspaces in the UK, 1997

Table 7.6: UK Hotel Businesses by Turnover (number and percent), 1997

Table 7.7: Leading Hotel Groups in the UK by Turnover (£m), 1996-1998

Table 7.8: Top Ten UK Hotel Groups by Number of Rooms, 1997

Table 7.9: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Hotel Brands (£000), Year Ending June 1997 and 1998

Table 7.10: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Selected Hotel Brands (£000), Year Ending June 1997 and 1998

Table 7.11: Adults in Great Britain Staying in UK Hotels in the Previous 12 Months ( percent adults), 1998

Table 7.12: Penetration and Profile of Weekend and Business Visitors to UK Hotels by Age, Social Grade and Region ( percent of all adults), 1998

Table 7.13: Penetration and Profile of Midweek Visitors to UK Hotels by Age, Social Grade and Region ( percent of all adults), 1998

Table 7.14: Penetration and Profile of Visitors Staying 4 Nights or More at UK Hotels by Age, Social Grade and Region ( percent of all adults), 1998

Table 7.15: Forecast of the UK Hotel Market (£m), 1998-2002

Contract Catering

DEFINITION

KEY TRENDS

MARKET SIZE

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

MAJOR PLAYERS

ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION

BUYING BEHAVIOUR

FORECASTS

Table 8.1: The UK Contract Catering Market (£m at rsp), 1993-1997

Table 8.2: The UK Contract Catering Market by Sector (£m at rsp and percent), 1997

Table 8.3: Number of UK Contract Catering Outlets, 1993-1997

Table 8.4: Number of UK Contract Catering Outlets by Sector (number of businesses), 1990 and 1997

Table 8.5: The UK Contract Catering Market (number of businesses), 1992-1997

Table 8.6: UK Contract Catering Businesses by Turnover (number and percent), 1997

Table 8.7: The Top Five Contract Catering Companies and their Subsidiaries, 1997

Table 8.8: Length of Time Taken for a Lunch Break ( percent of respondents), 1990-1998

Table 8.9: Favourite Lunchtime Foods ( percent of respondents), 1994/1995 and 1998

Table 8.10: Forecasts of the UK Contract Catering Market (£m at rsp), 1998-2002

Other Catering Markets

INTRODUCTION

LICENSED CLUBS

HOLIDAY CAMPS, CARAVAN AND CAMPING SITES

Table 9.1: The UK Licensed Clubs Catering Market (£m at rsp), 1993-1997

Table 9.2: Licensed Clubs by Turnover (number and percent), 1995

Table 9.3: Visits to Licensed Clubs ( percent of adults), 1998

Table 9.4: Penetration and Profile of Licensed Club Users ( percent of adults), 1998

Table 9.5: Forecasts of the UK Licensed Clubs Catering Market (£m at rsp), 1998-2002

Table 9.6: The UK Holiday Camp, Caravan and Camping Site Catering Market (£m at rsp), 1993-1997

Table 9.7: Holiday Camps, Caravan and Camping Sites by Turnover (numbers and percent), 1997

Table 9.8: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Holiday Camps and Caravan Sites (£000), Year Ending June 1996 and 1997

Table 9.9: Forecast of the UK Holiday Camp, Caravan and Camping Site Catering Market (£m), 1998-2002

Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT)

STRENGTHS

WEAKNESSES

OPPORTUNITIES

THREATS

The Future

FUTURE PROSPECTS

FORECASTS 1998 TO 2002

MARKET SEGMENTATION

Table 11.1: Forecasts of Consumer Spending on the UK Catering Market at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 1998-2002

Table 11.2: Forecasts of Consumer Spending on the UK Catering Market at Constant Prices (£m at rsp and percent change), 1998-2002

Table 11.3: Forecasts of the UK Catering Market by Sector (£m), 1998-2002

Table 11.4: Forecast Shares of UK Catering Market by Sector ( percent), 1998 and 2002

Further Sources

ASSOCIATIONS

PERIODICALS

DIRECTORIES

GENERAL SOURCES

HBI UK INFORMATION SOURCES

GOVERNMENT PUBLICATIONS

OTHER SOURCES

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• INTRODUCTION
• RESTAURANTS
• FAST FOOD/TAKEAWAYS
• PUBLIC HOUSES
• HOTELS
• CONTRACT CATERING
• OTHER CATERING MARKETS
• FORECASTS

INTRODUCTION

Total consumer expenditure on the catering sectors covered by this report came to £26.11bn in 1997, an increase of 6.1 percent on 1996. The value growth in 1997 was the highest recorded in the 1990s and emphasises the buoyancy of many catering sectors in 1997. Most catering markets have benefited from increased spending, generated by stronger consumer confidence and generally improved economic conditions. Increased branding, supported by more advertising support, and the launch of various new catering concepts, have also generated interest in the market. Catering spending continues to increase its share of total consumer spending. By 1997, Office for National Statistics (ONS) data estimated that 8.8 percent of total consumer spending was devoted to catering, compared to 7.9 percent in 1988.

The largest sector of the market, measured by turnover, is hotels (30.7 percent), followed by restaurants (24 percent) and fast food/takeaways (23.2 percent). These latter two market segments have changed places in the order of rank in 1997, following boom times in the restaurant market. Other market sectors are contract catering (8.6 percent), public house (pub) catering, excluding pub restaurants (3.3 percent), licensed clubs catering (5.1 percent), and catering at holiday camps, holiday villages, caravan and camping sites (5.1 percent).

The confidence in the catering sector over the last 12 months (1997/1998), and the continued investment in new brands and concepts, has stimulated a noticeable increase in advertising support for key brands. In the year to June 1998, main media advertising expenditure on restaurant and fast-food brands increased by 26.7 percent and there were also smaller annual increases for hotels and holiday camps.

RESTAURANTS

Since 1993, the best performing sector in the UK catering market has been restaurants, which registered a value growth of 37.8 percent, compared to the catering market average of 22 percent. In 1997, the restaurant market increased in value by 11.3 percent, the largest annual increase of the 1990s, producing a market valued at £6.25bn. Various factors have contributed to this impressive growth, including the increasing propensity of consumers to view eating out as a regular leisure experience, the growth in personal disposable income (PDI), and the segmentation of the market with branded outlets targeted at specific consumer groups. 63 percent of adults visit restaurants during the evening, and 50.8 percent visit these outlets during the day.

One of the fastest growing market sectors has been pub restaurants, increasing in value in 1997 by 14 percent. The branding of more pubs, especially the larger pubs, as family-orientated pub restaurants has been the driving force behind this strong growth. Roadside catering and themed restaurants have also been increasing sales year-on-year.

The small, independent outlet is still the typical outlet in this sector, but investment by the pub chains, in particular, has created a range of branded chains. Operators such as Whitbread, City Centre Restaurants and Bass are also developing a range of branded concepts with specific brands targeted at specific customers.

FAST FOOD/TAKEAWAYS

Sales in the fast-food/takeaway market increased by 5.9 percent in 1997, and the market was worth £6.06bn. While 1997 growth was the best annual performance for a number of years, this growth was still below the catering market average. Nevertheless, after a poor performance in 1996, brought on by the bovine spongiform encepthalopathy (BSE) crisis, the 1997 sales growth is a significant improvement and growth has been achieved through more outlet expansion, menu-diversification and increased brand support.

The largest share of the fast-food/takeaway market is taken by sandwiches (34.5 percent), and the second largest sector is burgers (21.7 percent). The other core sectors are fish and chips (13 percent), staging somewhat of a recovery in 1997, pizzas (10.6 percent) and chicken (6.1 percent). The remainder of the market comprises various ethnic food outlets and other outlets and takeaways (14 percent). Of the core markets, the best performing sector in 1997 was sandwiches registering growth of 7.6 percent and benefiting from continued consumer preferences for quick, lighter and healthier lunches, and the availability of a wider choice of sandwich fillings in more outlets. Sales in the chicken and the fish and chips sectors were also above the market average.

There were approximately 44,500 fast-food/takeaway outlets in the UK in 1997 and 15,000 of these (33.7 percent) were ethnic food outlets. Another 12,000 (27 percent) were sandwich bars. Small operators dominate in terms of numbers, but concentration is increasing as the big brand owners invest in more outlets and more brand support. The leading brand owners in each key market -- McDonald's and Burger King (burgers), KFC (chicken) and Pizza Hut (pizza) -- increased their main media advertising expenditure in the year to 30th June 1998.

PUBLIC HOUSES

Sales through pubs were valued at £13.45bn in 1997, an increase of 2.7 percent on 1996. While this seems to show only limited growth over the year, it should be remembered that pub numbers fell during 1997, so the annual sales increase is being achieved by a considerably smaller number of pubs. What is also important to note is that food sales in pubs have been increasing strongly over the last few years, while drinks sales have performed weakly. In 1997, total food sales through pubs was estimated at £2bn, an increase of 17.6 percent on 1996. Of this total, £869m was accounted for by bar food sales and miscellaneous food sales (pub restaurant sales are included in the restaurant total), and sales in this sector grew by an impressive 22.7 percent in 1997. By 1997, food accounted for 14.9 percent of all sales in pubs, more than double the 7.1 percent share taken in 1988.

The pub sector has experienced something of a transformation in the 1990s, with the number of pubs declining and the ownership of pubs changing. In 1990, there were 55,000 pubs, but this total fell to 52,500 in 1993 and to just 48,500 by the beginning of 1998. Traditionally, the owners of pubs have been national brewers, but this has also changed with many more pubs now owned by regional and independent brewers and a new breed of pub companies (`pubcos'). Many of these new owners have been involved in refurbishment exercises, with a strong emphasis on food.

Two encouraging trends for pub owners are that the number of visitors to pubs is increasing, and the number of women visiting pubs appears to be increasing.

HOTELS

In 1997, turnover in the UK hotel market increased by just 3.1 percent, producing a market valued at £8.02bn. However, this relatively modest annual sales increase followed 3 years of strong growth, when the hotel industry recovered from the weak demand of the recession years.

65 percent of hotel users are corporate clients spending a total of £5.21bn in 1997, and the other 35 percent (spending £2.81bn) are leisure visitors. The corporate market has recovered strongly in recent years, but the leisure market is still subject to variables such as the weather, personal incomes and the number of overseas visitors to the UK. The short-break holiday market is one of the most dynamic sectors of the hotel trade, and increased advertising and promotional support is helping to develop this market. What is encouraging for the hotel trade is the high occupancy levels recorded in 1997, and the growing number of UK consumers using hotels. In 1994, BMRB International's Target Group Index (TGI) data found that 24 percent of adults had stayed in a hotel in the previous 12 months (1996/1997), but by 1998 this had risen to 30.7 percent.

Hotel numbers have fallen from 13,364 in 1992 to 10,925 in 1997, as smaller hotels have disappeared and the leading brand owners have focused on the mid-price to premium price ranges. At the opposite end of the market, the budget hotel sector continues to thrive, with a 20.9 percent increase in the number of budget hotels in 1997.

CONTRACT CATERING

The outsourcing of non-core activities by various organisations and the privatisation of many public services have been the main driving forces behind the growth of the contract catering sector in recent years. Improved food quality, more branded outlets and more flexible approaches to institutional feeding, based on smaller units, kiosks, trolleys or vending machines that supplement traditional restaurant facilities, have also helped.

By 1997, the contract catering market was valued at £2.26bn, a slight increase of 1.4 percent on 1996. This small increase follows a period of strong growth in the sector, with annual turnover increasing by 73 percent between 1990 and 1997, and £1bn being added to the annual market value.

An increase in both the number of businesses and the number of contract catering outlets are also signs of strong growth in this sector in recent years. In 1993, for example, there were 11,954 contract catering outlets, but by 1997, this total had increased by 39.7 percent to 16,702. In 1993, there were 2,457 businesses, but by 1997 there were 3,520, attracted by the low entry costs, low market penetration and potential opportunities. Growth in the UK market has also been accompanied by strong growth in global markets and the leading UK contractors, notably Compass and Gardner Merchant, are also major international food service companies.

OTHER CATERING MARKETS

The other major catering markets covered by this report are licensed clubs and holiday camps, caravan and camping sites. Both these markets generated catering sales of around £1.3bn in 1997, with sales increases of 3.2 percent and 4 percent respectively.

Both sectors have increased their catering sales by improving their menus, investing in catering facilities and sites and introducing more branded outlets from the High Street. The customer bases of the two markets, however, are different. Patrons of licensed clubs are mainly young male adults in the C2 and D social grades, while holiday camps and villages are mainly targeted at young families.

FORECASTS

Key Note is forecasting a 6.2 percent increase in the catering market in 1998, producing a market valued at £27.72bn. There are signs, however, that the healthy growth of recent years could be replaced by considerably lower year-on-year growth, as consumer demand weakens. In 1999, the market is forecast to increase by just 5.4 percent. By 2002, Key Note is forecasting a market valued at £32.59bn.

Uncertainties regarding future consumer spending on catering, in the light of a possible recession, have forced many brand owners to revise their expansion plans downwards. On the positive side, growth in the population and more working women are social factors which should boost sales.

Sectors likely to show above average growth will be pub catering and restaurants, but the hotels and fast-food sectors may underperform the market as a whole.

Text © 1998 Key Note

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