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KN52032
KEY NOTE Take Home Trade : July 2002

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This report covers: wine merchants and warehouses, off-licence, wine merchant multiples, brewers, wines, spirits, other alcoholic drinks, soft drinks,

Companies and consortiums covered include: Tesco, Sainsbury's, ASDA, Safeway, Somerfield, First Quench Retailing, Thresher, Victoria Wine, Cellar 5 Group, Unwins, Bargain Booze, Oddbins, Majestic Wines, British Beer and Pub Association, British Retail Consortium, Wine and Spirit Association,

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In 2001, UK consumers spent £35.05bn on alcoholic drinks and a further £7.55bn on soft drinks, which together represented around 6 percent of total consumer expenditure.
Within the total of £42.6bn spent on drinks, £16.6bn fell into the category of take-home drinks, or the `off-trade', so that catering and the `on-trade', such as pubs, still accounted for a much higher share of spending on drinks than the take-home market.
Wine is the most important alcoholic drink sold to take home, while beer is more dominant in the on-trade, and in the drinks market as a whole. Wine has driven take-home growth, as Continental eating and drinking habits have been adopted by UK consumers. However, beer and spirits are also important, and there are substantial take-home markets for cider and the currently fashionable category of flavoured alcoholic beverages (FABs), such as Bacardi Breezer. Soft drinks make up another substantial category, there being an ever-broadening range of flavours and styles of packaged drink on the shelves, many of which are targeted at adults rather than children.
The growth of wine has coincided with the rise of the multiple grocer's superstore as the consumer's first choice for buying alcoholic drink for taking home. Grocers as a whole, including local corner shops, now account for more than three-quarters of the take-home trade, having stolen share from traditional off-licences. In total, however, there are still 40,000 outlets selling drinks to take home.
The pressure on off-licences brought by the expansion of grocers such as Tesco, Sainsbury's and ASDA has made their survival difficult and consolidation into larger groups a necessity. First Quench, which is easily the largest off-licence group (including Thresher and Victoria Wine), was sold to a bank in 2000, while Oddbins, famous for its adventurous and informal wine retailing, became part of a French group in 2002.
Competition between grocers and off-licences means that prices for take-home drinks have remained low and, in some cases, have `deflated' over the 5 years since 1997. Nevertheless, market growth of 25 percent has been achieved at current prices, and further expansion is forecast to 2006.
Grocers will continue to increase their influence on take-home drinks, but the most striking characteristic of the market in the early years of the 21st century will be the increasing concentration of market share among the few leading brands in each category of drink, usually international brands such as Bacardi, Coca-Cola, Stella Artois, Smirnoff and Gallo

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Market Definition 7
REPORT COVERAGE 7
MARKET SECTORS 7
By Type of Drink 7
Table 1: Indigenous and International Drinks Products in the UK, 2002 8
Beer 9
Wine 9
Spirits, Liqueurs and Fortified Wines 9
Other Alcohol 9
Soft Drinks 9
Types of Take-Home Outlet 10
MARKET TRENDS 10
Growth of Multiple Grocers 10
The Influence of Legislation and Taxation 10
Defensive Mergers Among Multiples 11
National and Global Consolidation Among Drinks Manufacturers 11
MARKET POSITION 12
The UK 12
Table 2: Take-Home and On-Trade Sales by Drinks Sector, (£m and percent), 2001 12
Overseas 13
Table 3: Drinks Brands Consumed on a Regular Basis ( percent of adults), 2001 14
2. Market Size 15
THE TOTAL MARKET 15
Table 4: The Total Take-Home Drinks Market by Value at Current and Constant 1995 Prices (£m at rsp), 1997-2001 15
Price Trends 16
Table 5: Retail Price Indices for Drinks (index 1998=100), 1998-2001 16
MARKET SECTORS 17
By Type of Drink 17
Table 6: The Take-Home Trade by Drinks Sector by Value ( percent), 1997, 1999 and 2001 18
Table 7: The Take-Home Trade by Drinks Sector by Value (£m at rsp), 1997-2001 19
Wine (Light/Sparkling) 19
Beer 20
Spirits and Liqueurs 20
Fortified Wines 21
Cider 21
Flavoured Alcoholic Beverages 22
Soft Drinks 22
By Type of Take-Home Outlet 22
Table 8: The Take-Home Trade by Type of Outlet (number of outlets and percent), 1996 and 2002 23
Table 9: The Take-Home Trade by Type of Outlet by Value ( percent), 1990, 1996, 1999 and 2002 24
3. Industry Background 25
RECENT HISTORY 25
NUMBER OF COMPANIES 26
Table 10: Size Analysis of VAT-Based Drinks Retailing Businesses by Turnover Sizeband (number of companies and percent), 1998 and 2001 26
REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN THE MARKETPLACE 27
HOW ROBUST IS THE MARKET? 27
LEGISLATION 27
UK Licensing Laws 27
Taxation 28
KEY TRADE ASSOCIATIONS 28
British Beer and Pub Association 28
British Retail Consortium 28
Federation of Wholesale Distributors 29
Wine & Spirit Association 29
4. Competitor Analysis 30
THE MARKETPLACE 30
Grocers and Convenience Stores 30
Table 11: The Largest Multiple Grocers by Number of UK Outlets, 2000 and 2002 31
Tesco 31
Sainsbury's 32
ASDA 32
Safeway 32
Somerfield 32
Other Grocers 32
Off-Licences 33
Table 12: Leading Off-Licence and Wine Merchant Multiples by Number of Outlets, 1996, 1999 and 2002 34
Wine Merchants and Warehouses 34
MARKET LEADERS 35
First Quench Retailing Ltd 35
Company Structure 35
Thresher 35
Victoria Wine 35
Current and Future Developments 36
Table 13: Number of Outlets Under the Various First Quench Fascias, April 2002 37
Financial Results 37
Cellar 5 Group Ltd 37
Company Structure 37
Current and Future Developments 38
Financial Results 38
Unwins Ltd 38
Company Structure 38
Current and Future Developments 39
Financial Results 39
Bargain Booze Ltd 40
Company Structure 40
Current and Future Developments 40
Financial Results 40
Oddbins Ltd 40
Company Structure 40
Current and Future Developments 41
Financial Results 41
Majestic Wine PLC 42
Company Structure 42
Current and Future Developments 42
Financial Results 42
OUTSIDE SUPPLIERS 42
Table 14: Leading Drinks Suppliers to the Take-Home Trade, 2002 43
Brewers 45
Spirits 46
Wines 46
Other Alcoholic Drinks 47
Soft Drinks 47
ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION 48
By Retailers 48
Table 15: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Alcohol Retailers (£000), 2000-2001 49
By Drinks Manufacturers 49
Table 16: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Drinks Brands (£000), 2001 50
5. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats 53
STRENGTHS 53
WEAKNESSES 53
OPPORTUNITIES 53
THREATS 54
6. Buying Behaviour 55
CONSUMER PENETRATION 55
Table 17: Trends in Take-Home Consumption by Type of Drink ( percent of adults), 1995, 1999 and 2001 55
Wine Consumers 55
Table 18: Take-Home Consumers of Wine/Fortified Wine by Sex, Age, Social Grade and Region ( percent of adults), 2001 56
Beer Consumers 57
Table 19: Consumers of Take-Home Beer by Sex, Age, Social Grade and Region ( percent of adults), 2001 58
Spirits Consumers 59
Table 20: Consumers of Take-Home Spirits by Sex, Age, Social Grade and Region ( percent of adults), 2001 60
7. Current Issues 61
CORPORATE ACTIVITY 61
First Quench 61
Other Corporate Changes 61
LEGISLATION AND TAXATION 62
PRICE COMPETITION 62
CONVENIENCE ROLE OF OFF-LICENCES 62
CRIME AND SECURITY PROBLEMS 63
GROWTH OF FORECOURT RETAILING 63
2002 AS A WORLD CUP YEAR 64
8. The Global Market 65
SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES IN DRINKS DISTRIBUTION 65
GLOBAL EXPANSION 65
FACTORS INFLUENCING SUPPLY TRENDS 65
9. Forecasts 66
INTRODUCTION 66
FUTURE TRENDS 66
Dominance of Multiple Grocers 66
Implications of Brand Concentration 67
The Importance of Monitoring Fashions 67
Wine Developments 67
Beer Concentration 68
Fashion Drinks 68
FORECASTS 2002 TO 2006 68
Table 21: The Forecast Take-Home Drinks Market by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 2002-2006 69
10. Company Profiles 70
Bargain Booze Ltd 71
CELLAR 5 GROUP LTD 73
First Quench Retailing Ltd 75
Majestic Wine Plc 77
Oddbins Ltd 79
Unwins Ltd 81
11. Further Sources 83
Associations 83
Publications 84
Directories 86
General Sources 86
Bonnier Information Sources 87
Government Publications 88
Other Sources 89

Text © 2002 Key Note

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