KN52004

KEY NOTE Report : CLOTHING RETAILING : September 2004

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This report covers: clothing, retailing, women's clothing, men's clothing, outerwear, underwear, swimwear, socks, ties,

Companies covered include: Alexon, Aecadia, Austin Group, Bhs, Debenhams, House of Fraser, Marks & Spencer, Matalan, Next, Ethel Austin, French Connection, H & M Hennes, Laura Ashley, Monsoon, Moss bros, New Look, OAsis, River Island, New Look,Ted Baker, Zara, Armani, Pringle,ASDA, Sainsbury, Tesco,

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This Key Note Market Report examines the UK retail market for men's, women's and children's (including babies') clothing. It includes retail sales of outerwear (including sportswear), underwear and hosiery, but excludes footwear, corporate workwear and uniforms.

In 2003, the market was worth an estimated £29.96bn, an increase of 32.1% on the 1999 value. The market showed particularly strong growth in 2002 and 2003, in line with general increases in retail spending, which reflect buoyant economic growth and historically low borrowing costs. However, this growth has also been driven by an increasing interest in clothing among Britons and a rise in the purchase of designer wear and more expensive items of casual wear.

Womenswear remains the mainstay of the market, accounting for around half all garment sales in 2003. Womenswear, menswear and childrenswear have each maintained fairly stable market shares over the 5-year review period (1999 to 2003).

Intensifying competition is likely to cap value growth in clothes retailing. The supermarket chains Tesco and ASDA are expanding aggressively in this market and moving their ranges of clothes more upmarket, which will place pressure on discounters such as Matalan, as well as on traditional outlets such as Marks & Spencer. Furthermore, the retail billionaire Philip Green — who has transformed the Bhs and Arcadia empires — has promised to launch a fierce retailing war against Marks and Spencer, following his failed 2004 bid to take over the former star of the high street.

International developments will also have a major impact on value growth. An international pact — the Multi Fibre Arrangement (MFA) — has imposed strict limits on imports of textiles from the developing world into industrialised countries since the 1960s. However, the MFA expires in 2005 and imports will no longer be subject to quotas. Consequently, the global textile industry is expected to consolidate, with production shifting to the most efficient, cheapest and most reliable suppliers — India and China are expected to emerge as the behemoths of the industry. Indeed, the World Bank estimates that China will control nearly half the world's clothing exports by 2010, up from around 20% in 2004. As a result, consumers are likely to see prices of clothing fall by between 5% and 10% in 2005, further capping growth in the value of the market.

Key Note expects spending on clothes to increase at a more modest rate over the next 5 years (2004 to 2008), as consumers adjust to the impact of higher borrowing costs and begin to reduce some of the large debts they have built up over the past 5 years, rather than take on new liabilities. Furthermore, the UK Government is expected to raise taxes following the next general election — expected in 2005 — further dampening consumer spending.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Text © 2004 Key Note

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Last updated by Amanda Porteous November 2004