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| KN16001 |
| KEY NOTE CIGARETTES AND TOBACCO : APRIL 2001 |

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This report covers: cigarettes, tobacco, cigars, hand-rolled, cigarillos, nicotine patches, nicotine gum, hypnosis, acupuncture, pipe tobacco, premium brands, mid-price brands, black market, duty paid, non-UK duty paid, low-price brands, cheroots, voluntary agreements, quota systems, forestalling, duty-paid mark,
Companies/brands covered include: British American Tobacco, BAT, Dunhill, Lucky Strike, Kent, State Express 555, Rothmans, Pall Mall, Winfield, John Player Gold Leaf, Marlboro, Gallaher Group, Benson & hedges, Silk Cut, Berkeley Superkings, Mayfair, Dorchester, Camel, Imperial Tobacco, Lambert & Butler, Regal, Embassy, Superkings, JPS, Swedish Match UK, Swan, Hunters & Frankau, Manchester Tobacco Company, Zig Zag (GB),
The UK duty-paid cigarette and tobacco market grew by 3.9 percent between 1996 and 2000, to reach a value of £12.37bn. While the volume of the market has remained fairly constant, its value has been affected by rising tobacco-specific taxes. In addition, the legitimate trade is being undermined by the growing volume of smuggled products entering the market.
The main sectors of the market are cigarettes, cigars, hand-rolling tobacco and pipe tobacco. Cigarette sales have seen a trading down on the part of many consumers, from premium to low-priced brands, in the face of substantial price rises in the market. This has also encouraged some consumers to opt for hand-rolling tobacco as a lower-priced alternative - a choice particularly popular among younger smokers, both male and female. Cigars have seen a fall-off in sales, but an even sharper decline is evident in pipe tobacco.
Cigarettes and tobacco continue to be a battleground for the pro- and anti- smoking lobbies. The negative health implications of smoking mean that the Government and the EU are among those actively seeking a reduction in the prevalence of smoking, and they are legislating against it. Those in favour of smoking, led by the tobacco groups, are taking a pro-choice position. However, even they regard issues such as a complete advertising ban as simply a matter of time.
The UK market is heavily regulated and mature, with volumes steady or declining, rather than on the rise. As a result, the major tobacco companies are pursuing a policy of overseas expansion. Desirable markets include those in the former Soviet Union, and growth is taking the form of acquisition.
The most important issue facing the UK market is the growing level of smuggled products. These are often UK brands that have been exported and subsequently find a way back into the UK market to retail at a discount of up to £2 for a pack of 20. UK cigarettes and hand-rolling tobacco are the most expensive and highly taxed in Europe. The Government is taking steps to combat smuggling through its Customs and Excise operations, but many within the trade see a reduction in tobacco taxes as the only way to deal with the problem.
Volumes in the cigarette and tobacco market are expected to show a slight decline in the medium term, but it is likely that sales of legitimate products will show a sharper fall unless the threat from smuggled products can be addressed. The market's value will grow slowly between 2001 and 2005, boosted by price increases imposed by the tobacco groups, as well as by any rises in tax.
| Executive Summary | 1 |
| 1. Market Definition | 2 |
| REPORT COVERAGE | 2 |
| MARKET SECTORS | 2 |
| Cigarettes | 2 |
| Cigars | 2 |
| Cigarillos | 2 |
| Hand-Rolling Tobacco | 3 |
| MARKET TRENDS | 3 |
| Prevalence of Smoking | 3 |
| Table 1: Prevalence of Smoking in the UK by Sex and Age ( percent of adults),1988, 1994 and 1998 | 3 |
| Table 2: Proportion of All Adults Trying to Give Up Smoking and Method Used ( percent), 1999 and 2000 | 4 |
| Under-Age Smokers | 5 |
| UK Taxes and Smoking | 5 |
| Table 3: Cigarettes andHand-Rolling Tobacco Retail Price and Total Tax in Each of the Countries of the EU (pence), 2000/2001 | 5 |
| MARKET POSITION | 6 |
| The UK | 6 |
| Table 4: Indices of Total Household Expenditure and Spending on Cigarettes and Tobacco (1996=100),1996-2000 | 7 |
| Overseas | 7 |
| TRADE ASSOCIATIONS | 7 |
| Tobacco Manufacturers Association | 7 |
| 2. Market Size | 8 |
| THE TOTAL MARKET | 8 |
| Table 5: The UK Market for Cigarettes and Tobacco by Value at Current Prices(£m at rsp), 1996-2000 | 8 |
| by market sector | 8 |
| Cigarettes | 8 |
| Table 6: The UK Market for Cigarettes by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 1996-2000 | 9 |
| Table 7: The UK Market for Cigarettes by Volume(billion sticks), 1996-2000 | 9 |
| Premium Brands | 9 |
| Mid-Price Brands | 9 |
| Low-Price Brands | 10 |
| Cigars | 10 |
| Table 8: The UK Market for Cigars by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp),1996-2000 | 10 |
| Hand-Rolling Tobacco | 11 |
| Table 9: The UK Market for Hand-Rolling Tobacco by Value at Current Prices(£m at rsp), 1996-2000 | 11 |
| Table 10: The UK Market for Hand-Rolling Tobacco by Volume (tonnes),1996-2000 | 12 |
| Pipe Tobacco | 12 |
| Table 11: The UK Market for Pipe Tobacco by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 1996-2000 | 13 |
| OVERSEAS TRADE | 13 |
| Imports | 13 |
| Table 12: Imports of Cigarettes and Tobaccoby Value (£m),1998 and 1999 | 14 |
| Exports | 14 |
| Table 13: Exports of Cigarettes and Tobaccoby Value (£m),1998 and 1999 | 14 |
| 3. Industry Background | 15 |
| RECENT HISTORY | 15 |
| NUMBER OF COMPANIES | 15 |
| EMPLOYMENT | 16 |
| Table 14: Number of Local Units Manufacturing Cigarettes and Tobacco Products by Number of Employees, 2000 | 16 |
| DISTRIBUTION | 16 |
| Table 15: Retail Distribution of Tobacco Products byType of Outlet by Volume ( percent), 2000 | 17 |
| HOW ROBUST ISTHE MARKET? | 17 |
| LEGISLATION | 18 |
| Voluntary Agreements | 18 |
| Quota Systems | 18 |
| Duty-Paid Marks | 19 |
| 4. Competitor Analysis | 20 |
| THE MARKETPLACE | 20 |
| MARKET LEADERS | 20 |
| British AmericanTobacco PLC | 20 |
| Company Structure | 20 |
| Current and Future Developments | 20 |
| Financial Results | 21 |
| Gallaher Group PLC | 21 |
| Company Structure | 21 |
| Current and Future Developments | 21 |
| Financial Results | 22 |
| Imperial TobaccoGroup PLC | 22 |
| Company Structure | 22 |
| Current and Future Developments | 23 |
| Financial Results | 23 |
| Swedish Match UK Ltd | 23 |
| Company Structure | 23 |
| Current and Future Developments | 23 |
| Financial Results | 23 |
| OTHER COMPANIES | 24 |
| Hunters & Frankau Ltd | 24 |
| Financial Results | 24 |
| The Manchester Tobacco Company Ltd | 24 |
| Financial Results | 24 |
| Zig Zag (GB) PLC | 24 |
| Financial Results | 24 |
| OUTSIDE SUPPLIERS | 24 |
| ADVERTISING ANDPROMOTION | 25 |
| Main Media Expenditure | 25 |
| Table 16: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Cigarettes, Cigars and Tobacco (£000), 2000 | 25 |
| Recent Campaigns | 26 |
| 5. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats | 28 |
| STRENGTHS | 28 |
| WEAKNESSES | 28 |
| OPPORTUNITIES | 28 |
| THREATS | 29 |
| 6. Buying Behaviour | 30 |
| CONSUMER PENETRATION | 30 |
| Table 17: Penetration of Cigarettes and Tobacco Products ( percent of adults),1995-2000 | 30 |
| By Sex | 30 |
| Table 18: Penetration of Cigarettes and Tobacco Products by Sex( percent of adults), 2000 | 31 |
| By Age | 31 |
| Table 19: Penetration of Cigarettes and Tobacco Products by Age( percent of adults), 2000 | 31 |
| By Social Grade | 32 |
| Table 20: Penetration of Cigarettes and Tobacco Products by Social Grade( percent of adults), 2000 | 32 |
| By Region | 32 |
| Table 21: Penetration of Cigarettes and Tobacco Products by Region( percent of adults), 2000 | 33 |
| 7. Current Issues | 34 |
| THE ROLE OFTHE INTERNET | 34 |
| HEALTH ISSUES | 34 |
| Cigarette CompanyAdmission | 34 |
| Health and SafetyExecutive Guidelines | 35 |
| World HealthOrganisation Proposals | 35 |
| PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT | 35 |
| CORPORATE ACTIVITY | 35 |
| LEGISLATIVE CHANGES | 36 |
| UK Government | 36 |
| European Union | 36 |
| 8. The Global Market | 37 |
| WORLD HEALTH ORGANISATIONCONVENTION | 37 |
| THE EU MARKET | 37 |
| Table 22: The EU Tobacco Market by Country by Volume (million and tonnes), 1998 | 38 |
| Germany | 39 |
| Italy | 39 |
| France | 39 |
| NON-EU MARKETS | 39 |
| China | 39 |
| The US | 40 |
| Russia | 40 |
| 9. Forecasts | 41 |
| INTRODUCTION | 41 |
| Household Expenditure | 41 |
| Table 23: Total Household Expenditure and Index of Retail Sales (£bn and index 1995=100), 1995-2000 | 41 |
| Tobacco Smuggling | 41 |
| Table 24: Non-UK-Duty-Paid Cigarettes and Hand-Rolling Tobacco as a Proportion of Total Sales by Volume ( percent), 1996-2000 | 42 |
| FORECASTS 2001 TO 2005 | 42 |
| Table 25: The Forecast UK Market for Cigarettes and Tobacco by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp),2001-2005 | 42 |
| FUTURE TRENDS | 43 |
| Demographics | 43 |
| Table 26: The UK Population by Age Group (000),1996, 2001 and 2006 | 43 |
| Market Segmentation | 43 |
| Europeanisation/Globalisation | 43 |
| Product Development | 44 |
| 10. Company Profiles | 45 |
| British AmericanTobacco PLC | 46 |
| Gallaher Group PLC | 48 |
| Imperial TobaccoGroup PLC | 50 |
| Swedish Match UK Ltd | 52 |
| 11. Further Sources | 54 |
| Associations | 54 |
| Periodicals | 55 |
| Directories | 56 |
| General Sources | 56 |
| BonnierInformation Sources | 57 |
| Government Publications | 58 |
| Other Sources | 58 |
| Understanding TGI Data | 60 |
| Number, Profile,Penetration | 60 |
| Social Grade | 61 |
| Standard Region | 61 |
| Key Note Research | 62 |
| The Key Note Rangeof Reports | 63 |
Text © 2001 Key Note
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Last updated by Jacob van Eldik 19th May 2001