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KN16001
KEY NOTE CIGARETTES AND TOBACCO : APRIL 2001

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Market reports

This report covers: cigarettes, tobacco, cigars, hand-rolled, cigarillos, nicotine patches, nicotine gum, hypnosis, acupuncture, pipe tobacco, premium brands, mid-price brands, black market, duty paid, non-UK duty paid, low-price brands, cheroots, voluntary agreements, quota systems, forestalling, duty-paid mark,

Companies/brands covered include: British American Tobacco, BAT, Dunhill, Lucky Strike, Kent, State Express 555, Rothmans, Pall Mall, Winfield, John Player Gold Leaf, Marlboro, Gallaher Group, Benson & hedges, Silk Cut, Berkeley Superkings, Mayfair, Dorchester, Camel, Imperial Tobacco, Lambert & Butler, Regal, Embassy, Superkings, JPS, Swedish Match UK, Swan, Hunters & Frankau, Manchester Tobacco Company, Zig Zag (GB),

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The UK duty-paid cigarette and tobacco market grew by 3.9 percent between 1996 and 2000, to reach a value of £12.37bn. While the volume of the market has remained fairly constant, its value has been affected by rising tobacco-specific taxes. In addition, the legitimate trade is being undermined by the growing volume of smuggled products entering the market.

The main sectors of the market are cigarettes, cigars, hand-rolling tobacco and pipe tobacco. Cigarette sales have seen a trading down on the part of many consumers, from premium to low-priced brands, in the face of substantial price rises in the market. This has also encouraged some consumers to opt for hand-rolling tobacco as a lower-priced alternative - a choice particularly popular among younger smokers, both male and female. Cigars have seen a fall-off in sales, but an even sharper decline is evident in pipe tobacco.

Cigarettes and tobacco continue to be a battleground for the pro- and anti- smoking lobbies. The negative health implications of smoking mean that the Government and the EU are among those actively seeking a reduction in the prevalence of smoking, and they are legislating against it. Those in favour of smoking, led by the tobacco groups, are taking a pro-choice position. However, even they regard issues such as a complete advertising ban as simply a matter of time.

The UK market is heavily regulated and mature, with volumes steady or declining, rather than on the rise. As a result, the major tobacco companies are pursuing a policy of overseas expansion. Desirable markets include those in the former Soviet Union, and growth is taking the form of acquisition.

The most important issue facing the UK market is the growing level of smuggled products. These are often UK brands that have been exported and subsequently find a way back into the UK market to retail at a discount of up to £2 for a pack of 20. UK cigarettes and hand-rolling tobacco are the most expensive and highly taxed in Europe. The Government is taking steps to combat smuggling through its Customs and Excise operations, but many within the trade see a reduction in tobacco taxes as the only way to deal with the problem.

Volumes in the cigarette and tobacco market are expected to show a slight decline in the medium term, but it is likely that sales of legitimate products will show a sharper fall unless the threat from smuggled products can be addressed. The market's value will grow slowly between 2001 and 2005, boosted by price increases imposed by the tobacco groups, as well as by any rises in tax.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary 1
1. Market Definition 2
REPORT COVERAGE 2
MARKET SECTORS 2
Cigarettes 2
Cigars 2
Cigarillos 2
Hand-Rolling Tobacco 3
MARKET TRENDS 3
Prevalence of Smoking 3
Table 1: Prevalence of Smoking in the UK by Sex and Age ( percent of adults),1988, 1994 and 1998 3
Table 2: Proportion of All Adults Trying to Give Up Smoking and Method Used ( percent), 1999 and 2000 4
Under-Age Smokers 5
UK Taxes and Smoking 5
Table 3: Cigarettes andHand-Rolling Tobacco — Retail Price and Total Tax in Each of the Countries of the EU (pence), 2000/2001 5
MARKET POSITION 6
The UK 6
Table 4: Indices of Total Household Expenditure and Spending on Cigarettes and Tobacco (1996=100),1996-2000 7
Overseas 7
TRADE ASSOCIATIONS 7
Tobacco Manufacturers’ Association 7
2. Market Size 8
THE TOTAL MARKET 8
Table 5: The UK Market for Cigarettes and Tobacco by Value at Current Prices(£m at rsp), 1996-2000 8
by market sector 8
Cigarettes 8
Table 6: The UK Market for Cigarettes by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 1996-2000 9
Table 7: The UK Market for Cigarettes by Volume(billion sticks), 1996-2000 9
Premium Brands 9
Mid-Price Brands 9
Low-Price Brands 10
Cigars 10
Table 8: The UK Market for Cigars by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp),1996-2000 10
Hand-Rolling Tobacco 11
Table 9: The UK Market for Hand-Rolling Tobacco by Value at Current Prices(£m at rsp), 1996-2000 11
Table 10: The UK Market for Hand-Rolling Tobacco by Volume (tonnes),1996-2000 12
Pipe Tobacco 12
Table 11: The UK Market for Pipe Tobacco by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 1996-2000 13
OVERSEAS TRADE 13
Imports 13
Table 12: Imports of Cigarettes and Tobaccoby Value (£m),1998 and 1999 14
Exports 14
Table 13: Exports of Cigarettes and Tobaccoby Value (£m),1998 and 1999 14
3. Industry Background 15
RECENT HISTORY 15
NUMBER OF COMPANIES 15
EMPLOYMENT 16
Table 14: Number of Local Units Manufacturing Cigarettes and Tobacco Products by Number of Employees, 2000 16
DISTRIBUTION 16
Table 15: Retail Distribution of Tobacco Products byType of Outlet by Volume ( percent), 2000 17
HOW ROBUST ISTHE MARKET? 17
LEGISLATION 18
Voluntary Agreements 18
Quota Systems 18
Duty-Paid Marks 19
4. Competitor Analysis 20
THE MARKETPLACE 20
MARKET LEADERS 20
British AmericanTobacco PLC 20
Company Structure 20
Current and Future Developments 20
Financial Results 21
Gallaher Group PLC 21
Company Structure 21
Current and Future Developments 21
Financial Results 22
Imperial TobaccoGroup PLC 22
Company Structure 22
Current and Future Developments 23
Financial Results 23
Swedish Match UK Ltd 23
Company Structure 23
Current and Future Developments 23
Financial Results 23
OTHER COMPANIES 24
Hunters & Frankau Ltd 24
Financial Results 24
The Manchester Tobacco Company Ltd 24
Financial Results 24
Zig Zag (GB) PLC 24
Financial Results 24
OUTSIDE SUPPLIERS 24
ADVERTISING ANDPROMOTION 25
Main Media Expenditure 25
Table 16: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Cigarettes, Cigars and Tobacco (£000), 2000 25
Recent Campaigns 26
5. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats 28
STRENGTHS 28
WEAKNESSES 28
OPPORTUNITIES 28
THREATS 29
6. Buying Behaviour 30
CONSUMER PENETRATION 30
Table 17: Penetration of Cigarettes and Tobacco Products ( percent of adults),1995-2000 30
By Sex 30
Table 18: Penetration of Cigarettes and Tobacco Products by Sex( percent of adults), 2000 31
By Age 31
Table 19: Penetration of Cigarettes and Tobacco Products by Age( percent of adults), 2000 31
By Social Grade 32
Table 20: Penetration of Cigarettes and Tobacco Products by Social Grade( percent of adults), 2000 32
By Region 32
Table 21: Penetration of Cigarettes and Tobacco Products by Region( percent of adults), 2000 33
7. Current Issues 34
THE ROLE OFTHE INTERNET 34
HEALTH ISSUES 34
Cigarette CompanyAdmission 34
Health and SafetyExecutive Guidelines 35
World HealthOrganisation Proposals 35
PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT 35
CORPORATE ACTIVITY 35
LEGISLATIVE CHANGES 36
UK Government 36
European Union 36
8. The Global Market 37
WORLD HEALTH ORGANISATIONCONVENTION 37
THE EU MARKET 37
Table 22: The EU Tobacco Market by Country by Volume (million and tonnes), 1998 38
Germany 39
Italy 39
France 39
NON-EU MARKETS 39
China 39
The US 40
Russia 40
9. Forecasts 41
INTRODUCTION 41
Household Expenditure 41
Table 23: Total Household Expenditure and Index of Retail Sales (£bn and index 1995=100), 1995-2000 41
Tobacco Smuggling 41
Table 24: Non-UK-Duty-Paid Cigarettes and Hand-Rolling Tobacco as a Proportion of Total Sales by Volume ( percent), 1996-2000 42
FORECASTS 2001 TO 2005 42
Table 25: The Forecast UK Market for Cigarettes and Tobacco by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp),2001-2005 42
FUTURE TRENDS 43
Demographics 43
Table 26: The UK Population by Age Group (000),1996, 2001 and 2006 43
Market Segmentation 43
Europeanisation/Globalisation 43
Product Development 44
10. Company Profiles 45
British AmericanTobacco PLC 46
Gallaher Group PLC 48
Imperial TobaccoGroup PLC 50
Swedish Match UK Ltd 52
11. Further Sources 54
Associations 54
Periodicals 55
Directories 56
General Sources 56
BonnierInformation Sources 57
Government Publications 58
Other Sources 58
Understanding TGI Data 60
Number, Profile,Penetration 60
Social Grade 61
Standard Region 61
Key Note Research 62
The Key Note Rangeof Reports 63

Text © 2001 Key Note

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