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KEY NOTE Market Report PLUS Chilled Foods: July 2004

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This report covers: health issues, reducing fat, sugar, salt and allergies, functional foods, meat-free eating, smaller households, chilled foods, convenience retailing, service options, retail issues, luchbox occasions, cheese, yogurts, chilled desserts, ready meals, delicatessen meats, yellow fats, pizza, dressed salads, cream, savoury pastry products, imports, exports, key trade associations,

Companies and Brand Names covered include:Arla Foods, The Cheese Companym Glanbia Foods,Dairy Crest, Danone, Geest, Hazlewood Foods, Kerry Foods, Kraft Foods, Bernard Matthews, A McLelland & Son, Müller Dairy (UK),Nestlé UK, Northern Foods, Samworth Brothers, Unilever Bestfoods, Uniq, WA Baxter & Sons, Cranswick, Galbani,Golden Vale Dairies, Ilchester Cheese Company, McNeil Consumer Nutritionals, The New Covent Garden Soup Company, Onken Dairy, Pasta Reale, Weightwatchers, Yogurts and Chilled Desserts, Activia, Flora pro.activ,Müller, Munch Bunch, Ocean Spray, Petit Filous, Sainsbury's, Shape, Sveltesse, All Good things, Madrange, St Ivel Gold, Pizza, Tweenies, Boddingtons, Murphy's, Cornish Riviera Pasties, President, Onken, Rachel's Organic, Seriously Strong Cheddar,Bertoli, Clover, I Can't Believe It's Not Butter, Lurpak, Dickinson & Morris, Heartily Healthy, LesKol, Cadog, Filippo Berio, Ginsters, Peppashire, Butlers Farmhouse Cheese, Co-operative Group, H & B Food provisions, Horizon Organic, Parmalat, WA Turner, Roach Foods,Anchor, Boursin, Cathederal City, Dairylea, Discover, Philadelphia, Pilgrims Choice, Primula, Sainsbury's, Scooby-Doo, Tesco,

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report examines the UK market for chilled prepared foods. This market comprises a number of sectors: cheese, yogurts and chilled desserts, ready meals, delicatessen meats, yellow fats, pizza, dressed salads, savoury pastry products, cream and other chilled prepared foods. Total sales of these products grew by 18.4% between 1999 and 2003, to a value of £7.68bn.

The rate of growth varied from sector to sector, but certain trends can be observed across the market as a whole. Since the mid-1990s, spending on food has risen against a background of rising disposable income. Consumers have been willing and able to spend more on food, and chilled foods have been a major beneficiary of this trend. Newer segments, such as chilled ready meals, pizza and soup, have gained from the perception that they are fresher and of better quality than ambient or frozen alternatives.

More established segments, such as cheese and delicatessen meats, have profited from an increased willingness on the part of consumers to try new products and to trade up to better-quality and more `authentic' products. This has led to the introduction of more regional cheeses, traditional cures of meat and a widely sourced product portfolio. Yellow fats and yogurts have been at the forefront of the healthy-eating market, offering not only reduced-fat ranges but also the promise of positive health benefits through the use of cholesterol-reducing and `probiotic' ingredients.

Brand developments have been important across the food market. Since the late 1990s, the grocery multiples have had great success in developing their own-brand portfolios. They now offer a range of labels, from premium to value, plus healthy eating. Global branding is also a feature. These developments have encouraged consumers to differentiate between products and have brought the opportunity to price accordingly.

The chilled-foods market is served by a large number of companies, which vary in size from multinational to regional. This industry structure is supported by the diverse nature of the market, although there has been some consolidation among competitors in an attempt to gain market share.

The outlook for the chilled-foods market is positive. The market offers many opportunities for specialist and premium products, which are only just beginning to be exploited, and there is considerable scope for further growth. Key Note forecasts that the market's value will grow by 4% to 5% each year between 2004 and 2008.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

1. Market Definition

REPORT COVERAGE

MARKET SECTORS

MARKET TRENDS

Health Issues

Reducing Fat

Sugar, Salt and Allergies

Functional Foods

Meat-Free Eating

Smaller Households

Table 1: Household Size in Great Britain (% of households, million households and average number of people), 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2002

Convenience Retailing

Service Options

Retail Issues

Lunchbox Occasions

ECONOMIC TRENDS

Gross Domestic Product

Table 2: UK Gross Domestic Product at Current Prices (£m), 1999-2003

Household Disposable Income

Table 3: Household Disposable Income per Head (£), 1999-2003

Inflation

Table 4: UK Rate of Inflation (%), 1999-2003

MARKET POSITION

The UK

Table 5: Spending on Chilled Prepared Foods and All Spending on Food in the UK at Current Prices (indices 1999=100 and %), 1999-2003

Overseas

2. Market Size

THE TOTAL MARKET

Table 6: The UK Market for Chilled Prepared Foods by Sector by Value (£m at rsp), 1999-2003

BY MARKET SECTOR

Cheese

Table 7: The UK Market for Cheese by Value (£m at rsp and %), 1999-2003

Yogurts and Chilled Desserts

Table 8: The UK Market for Yogurts and Chilled Desserts by Value (£m at rsp and %), 1999-2003

Ready Meals

Table 9: The UK Market for Chilled Ready Meals by Value (£m at rsp and %), 1999-2003

Delicatessen Meats

Table 10: The UK Market for Delicatessen Meats by Value (£m at rsp and %), 1999-2003

Yellow Fats

Table 11: The UK Market for Yellow Fats by Value (£m at rsp and %), 1999-2003

Pizza

Table 12: The UK Market for Chilled Pizza by Value (£m at rsp and %), 1999-2003

Dressed Salads

Table 13: The UK Market for Dressed Salads by Value (£m at rsp and %), 1999-2003

Savoury Pastry Products

Table 14: The UK Market for Savoury Pastry Products by Value (£m at rsp and %), 1999-2003

Cream

Table 15: The UK Market for Cream by Value (£m at rsp and %), 1999-2003

Other Chilled Prepared Foods

Table 16: The UK Market for Other Chilled Prepared Foods by Value (£m at rsp and %), 1999-2003

OVERSEAS TRADE

Imports

Table 17: UK Imports of Selected Categories of Chilled Prepared Food by Value (£000), 2002 and 2003

Exports

Table 18: UK Exports of Selected Categories of Chilled Prepared Food by Value (£000), 2002 and 2003

3. Industry Background

RECENT HISTORY

NUMBER OF COMPANIES

Table 19: Number of UK VAT-Based Enterprises Engaged in Food Manufacturing by Turnover Sizeband (£000, number and %), 2003

EMPLOYMENT

Table 20: Number of UK VAT-Based Local Units Engaged in Food Manufacturing by Employment Sizeband (number and %), 2003

REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN THE MARKETPLACE

DISTRIBUTION

Table 21: The UK Market for Chilled Prepared Foods by Distribution Channel by Value (%), 2003

HOW ROBUST IS THE MARKET?

LEGISLATION

KEY TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

Chilled Food Association

Dairy Industry Federation

Scottish Dairy Association

4. Competitor Analysis

THE MARKETPLACE

MARKET LEADERS

Arla Foods UK PLC

Company Structure