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AM52008 AMA BUILDERS MERCHANT MARKET FEBRUARY 1998

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION 5
2. SUMMARY 6
3. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 9
3.1 INTRODUCTION 9
3.2 GROWTH AND INTEREST RATES 9
3.3 BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION 10
3.4 CONCLUSION 10
4. THE BUILDERS AND PLUMBERS MERCHANTS MARKET 11
4.1. DEFINITION 11
4.2 MARKET STRUCTURE 13
4.3. MARKET SIZE 18
5. THE BUILDERS & PLUMBERS MERCHANTS 26
5.1. MARKET SHARES 26
5.2 MERCHANT COMPANIES 29
5.3. CHARACTERISTICS OF BUILDERS & PLUMBERS MERCHANTS 41
5.4 BUYING PROCESSES 48
5.5 STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES, OPPORTUNITIES & THREATS 51
6. PRODUCTS 56
6.1 PRODUCT MIX 56
6.2 MERCHANT SHARES BY PRODUCT 57
6.3 PRODUCT TRENDS 59
7. MERCHANTS' CUSTOMERS 112
7.1 GENERAL 112
7.2 BUILDERS 112
7.3 PLUMBERS 114
7.4 HEATING & VENTILATING ENGINEERS 115
7.5 OTHER CONTRACTORS 115
7.6 CONSUMERS 116
7.7 LOCAL AUTHORITIES AND PUBLIC BODIES 117
7.8 OTHER 117
7.9 GENERAL 117
8. KEY MARKET INFLUENCES 119
8.1 THE HOUSING MARKET 119
8.2 CONSTRUCTION 122
8.3 GENERAL 126
9. FUTURE PROSPECTS 130
TABLES & CHARTS
CHART 1: MERCHANTS MARKET 1988-2000 VALUE £M AT MERCHANTS SELLING PRICES
CHART 2. DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE (LIGHTSIDE)
TABLE 3: UK BUILDING & PLUMBING MERCHANTS MARKET £M AT MERCHANT SELLING PRICES 1988-2000
TABLE 4: REGIONAL VARIATIONS OF NEW ORDERS OBTAINED BY CONTRACTORS.
TABLE 5: REGIONAL VARIATIONS OF BUILDING MATERIAL SALES BY BUILDERS MERCHANTS
CHART 6: UK MERCHANTS MARKET 1988-2002 MERCHANT SELLING CONSTANT 1990 PRICES
CHART 7: MERCHANTS MARKET SHARES 1997
CHART 8: MIX OF MERCHANTS BY TYPE 1997
CHART 9: MERCHANTS BY TURNOVER 1996
CHART 10: percentAGE OF MERCHANTS STOCKING BY PRODUCT GROUP
TABLE 11: MERCHANTS STOCK IN WEEKS 1990-1996
TABLE 12: MERCHANTS PROFITABILITY 1988-1996
TABLE 13: MERCHANTS DEBTORS LEVELS 1990-96
TABLE 14: MERCHANTS TURNOVER PER EMPLOYEE
TABLE 15: BUILDERS & PLUMBERS MERCHANTS PRODUCT MIX 1996 AT MERCHANT SELLING PRICES
TABLE 16: BUILDERS & PLUMBERS MERCHANTS SHARE OF THE MARKET SECTORS 1996 AT MERCHANT SELLING PRICES
TABLE 17: THE UK ROOFING AND INSULATION MARKET
TABLE 18: PRODUCT MIX - ROOFING & INSULATION MARKET 1996
TABLE 19: THE UK MARKET FOR BRICKS, BLOCKS AND CONCRETE GOODS
CHART 20: MIX OF BRICKS, BLOCKS & CONCRETE PRODUCTS BY VALUE 1996 MERCHANT SELLING PRICES
TABLE 21: PRODUCTION, STOCKS & DELIVERIES OF ALL BRICK TYPES (MILLIONS) 1988-1997
TABLE 22: PRODUCTION, STOCKS & DELIVERIES OF ALL CONCRETE BUILDING BLOCKS (000 SQ. METRES) 1998-1997
TABLE 23: THE UK MARKET FOR CEMENT AND PLASTER MATERIALS 1990-1997
TABLE 24: PRODUCT MIX OF CEMENT & PLASTER PRODUCTS 1996
TABLE 25: CEMENT AND READY MIXED CONCRETE PRODUCTION 1988-1997 ('000 TONNES)
TABLE 26: PRODUCTION OF AGGREGATES IN GREAT BRITAIN 1988-1997 ('000) TONNES
TABLE 27: UK TIMBER PRODUCTS - 1990-1997 (£M MERCHANT SELLING PRICES)
CHART 28: TIMBER SALES BY MAJOR PRODUCT GROUPS 1996 BY VALUE
TABLE 29: THE PLUMBING MATERIALS MARKET 1990-1998
TABLE 30: PRODUCT MIX - PLUMBING MATERIALS 1996
TABLE 31: THE UK DECORATING MATERIALS MARKET 1988-1997
TABLE 32: PRODUCT MIX WITHIN THE DECORATING MATERIALS MARKET 1996
TABLE 33: THE UK SPACE & WATER HEATING MARKET 1988-98
TABLE 34: PRODUCT MIX WITHIN THE HEATING PRODUCTS MARKET BY VALUE 1996
TABLE 35: PRODUCT MIX - SPACE HEATERS 1996 BY VALUE - £M MERCHANTS SELLING PRICE
TABLE 36: THE UK FURNITURE MARKET BY VALUE (£M MERCHANT SELLING PRICE)
TABLE 37: DISTRIBUTION OF KITCHEN FURNITURE - 1996 BY VALUE
TABLE 38: MARKET FOR IRONMONGERY AND MISCELLANEOUS PRODUCTS 1996 £M MERCHANT SELLING PRICE
CHART 39: UK VAT REGISTERED PLUMBERS 1996
TABLE 40: HOUSING COMPLETIONS 1988-1997 GREAT BRITAIN ('000)
TABLE 41: HOUSING STARTS 1992-1997 GREAT BRITAIN ('000)
TABLE 42: VALUE OF NEW UK HOUSING OUTPUT AND RMI OUTPUT (£M)
TABLE 43: NUMBER OF PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS IN ENGLAND AND WALES 1990-1996
TABLE 44: CONTRACTORS OUTPUT - NEW WORK AND RMI NON HOUSING - CURRENT PRICES (£M)
TABLE 45: NEW ORDERS OBTAINED BY CONTRACTORS 1990-1997 CURRENT PRICES
TABLE 46: CONTRACTORS OUTPUT - COMMERCIAL SECTOR NEW WORK - CURRENT PRICES (£M)
CHART 47: INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (RPI) FROM 1990-2000
CHART 48: PDI & SAVINGS RATIO
CHART 49: AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE RESIDENT UK POPULATION 1996 ('000)
CHART 50: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN EMPLOYMENT GB - JUNE 1981-96 (MILLIONS)

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The UK Builders and Plumbers Merchant market was worth over £8 billion at merchant selling prices in 1997, reflecting some recovery from the very low levels experienced in 1992.

Consumer confidence and both new build and RMI work remained low throughout 1992, though 1993 and 1994 showed some signs of improvement. This improvement was, however, relatively minor, with new build showing only marginal gains. Increasing interest rates in late 1994 led to a deterioration in consumer confidence and a resultant reduction in new housing starts, with a negative effect on the building and construction products markets. The Builders Merchants market remained difficult over 1995 and 1996, as a result, with some improvement in activity levels towards the end of 1996, as new housing starts showed signs of increasing.

The situation in 1997 was one of improving consumer confidence, generated by sustained low levels of interest rates, a new Government, lower unemployment levels, windfall gains, and increasing house prices. Successive interest rate rises from the middle of the year (subsequent to the election) have yet to impact on consumer confidence and spending levels.

Private sector commercial/industrial building, the commissioning of various millennium projects and increased levels of housing completions support an optimistic view of the short term future. However, the increased interest rates, lower levels of public sector construction output and the turmoil in the Far East are likely to constrain the market somewhat.

Competition remains intense from the DIY multiples, particularly on RMI work. In particular Wickes and B&Q have positioned themselves towards the 'building' end of the home improvement spectrum. However, DIY multiple growth has reduced and with significant concentration of multiples in the DIY industry, the impact on the merchant is likely to remain similar to current levels, rather than increase dramatically.

Price levels in the merchant industry remain competitive, reflecting the level of competition from other channels, but also from within the merchant industry. Spiralling raw material price rises in 1994 and early 1995 led to increases in wood and plastic goods prices, but with difficult trading conditions not all price rises were passed on, therefore eroding merchants margins. Firmer demand in 1997 is leading to some element of price rises, particularly in building materials, reflecting their low price level in recent years.

The major competitors in this market include Wolseley Centers (who operate Plumb Centers, Builders Centers etc), Jewsons (incorporating Harcros), Graham and Travis Perkins. Many have made acquisitions over the last two years, with Jewson acquiring Harcros the largest transaction. Keyline, Wickes, Hall and BSS are also major merchant operations.

The top eight companies (including Jewsons/Harcros as one) account for 47 percent of industry sales with the balance held by larger regionals and local companies, reflecting the key service offered by merchants - a local supply of a wide range of commodities to a large number of small and medium sized builders and plumbers - a service not always easy to offer from a major organisation.

The share taken by the larger merchants has increased in recent years, reflecting the increasing levels of competition in the market and the failure of many of the smaller independents to remain competitive. In addition, the larger companies have the financial strength to invest in new computer systems for improved stock control etc, thus improving their service and their financial situation.

The major products sold by the merchants include plumbing products, timber and timber products, roofing & insulation products, bricks/blocks & plasterboard along with plaster & cement, heating, kitchens, decorating materials and a wide range of miscellaneous products.

Merchants are of most significance in the plumbing market where they account for a share of approximately 60 percent, compared to their share of the timber products market at 25 percent. They are also of significance in the roofing & insulation market and the bricks, blocks & concrete market. They are least strong in the kitchens market and the decorating products market, which reflects the high level of competition in each of those markets.

This comprehensive report represents a detailed assessment of the market, reviewing major trends, key factors influencing developments and future prospects for the sector. Analysis is both quantitative and qualitative, based on our substantial experience of the building and home improvement markets.

Text © 1998 AMA Research

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