| AM945123 |
| AMA RESEARCH MARKET REPORT : Commercial Heating, Ventilating & Air Conditioning Market Report. February 2003 |
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BRIEF DESCRIPTION
| Covering the period 1995-2006, the report examines the market for axial, centrifugal, bifurcated & domestic ventilation products, packaged & central air conditioning equipment, direct & indirect commercial heating equipment, & heating & ventilating accessories including ducting, filters, natural ventilation & dampers. Each product segment is analysed in terms of market size & trends, key suppliers, & brand & distribution shares. The report also reviews niche applications, analyses market influences & assesses future market prospects. |
| Incorporating original input and primary research, the report covers the following key issues:- |
| Ventilation - Axial, Centrifugal, Bifurcated, Domestic, Other, etc. |
| Air Conditioning - Packaged (Split, Self Contained, Close Control); Central (AHUs, Chillers, Condensers, Terminal Units). |
| Commercial Heating - Direct Heaters (Warm Air and Radiant), Indirect Heating (Commercial Boilers, Radiators, Other Heat Emitters). |
| Heating and Ventilating Accessories - Ducting, Filters, Natural Ventilation, Dampers, etc. |
| The report reviews development within the industry, with emphasis on both QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE market assessment - both essential requirements to good marketing planning. Recent trends, key influencing factors and forecasts of future developments are assessed. |
| Of Particular Interest:- |
| Analysis of key product segments in terms of market size, key suppliers, etc. |
| Niche applications - e.g. conservatories, portable buildings, telecentres, hire trade, etc. |
| Analysis of market influences. |
| Assessment of future prospects. |
| Key areas of coverage in the report include:- |
| VENTILATION PRODUCTS |
| Market size & trends for ventilation products. Key influences: effect of building reg's, health issues, increasing emphasis on energy efficiency, growth in added-value products. |
| Market size and structure by major product group - axial, centrifugal, domestic extractors, tangential, roof extract, desk and ceiling sweep. |
| Analysis by product group - axial (plate mounted/bifurcated/mixed), centrifugal, domestic (axial & centrifugal/condensation control etc.), tangential (inc. cooker hoods), roof extract, desk, ceiling sweep, etc. Applications, suppliers within each sector. |
| Major suppliers and shares for the axial, centrifugal and domestic extractor markets. Turnover, products, etc. |
| Distribution and applications for ventilation products e.g. portable buildings, Health & Safety, fast food industry, etc. |
| Future prospects - Ventilation products. |
| AIR CONDITIONING |
| Total market size, trends, particularly rapid growth in packaged systems. Major influences. Future prospects. |
| Market size and structure by product group - Packaged and Central Station Systems. |
| Packaged Air Conditioning |
| Market size and trends, past, present & future. |
| Mix of small versus large PAC systems. |
| Mix of split/multi-split/cassette/close control etc. |
| Application areas, key suppliers, shares, etc. |
| Central Station Air Conditioning Systems |
| Market size and major trends, past, present & future. |
| Mix of Sales - air handling units (comfort, complete, industrial), chillers, condensers, terminal units, (V A V, fan coil etc). Trends by product area. |
| Key suppliers, turnovers etc. |
| Distribution and specification of air conditioning systems. |
| Future prospects - Air Conditioning. |
| NON-DOMESTIC HEATING |
| Non-domestic heating market size, factors influencing growth, history and future prospects. |
| Commercial Boilers - the market size, trends, characteristics including key suppliers, turnovers, strengths, etc. |
| Indirect Heaters - market size and trends, suppliers, future prospects etc, for commercial radiators, other heat emitters mix by product - fan convector, radiant, unit, air curtain etc. |
| Direct Heaters - market size and trends, suppliers, future prospects etc, for warm air (portable, cabinet, suspended, system) and radiant (tube, plaque and electric). |
| Channels of distribution for boilers, indirect and direct heating products. |
| Future prospects - Non-Domestic Heating. |
| ACCESSORIES |
| Heating Accessories - Controls, thermostats & programmers. |
| Market sizes, key trends, application areas. |
| Major suppliers, turnover levels, distribution characteristics. |
| Ventilation and air conditioning accessories - ducting, grilles/diffusers/registers, dampers, sound & pressure attenuators, variable speed drives, and natural ventilation (including smoke control, louvred ventilators, trickle ventilators). |
| Market size and characteristics per product area. |
| Major suppliers, products, etc. |
| Future prospects - Accessories. |
COMPANIES COVERED
| Smiths Group (now HSBC owned) |
| Flakt Woods Ltd |
| Greenwood Air Management |
| Applied Energy |
| Matthews & Yates |
| NuAire |
| Tomkins Group (ADL and Actionair) |
| BAXI Clean Air Systems |
| Airflow Developments |
| Johnson & Starley |
| Silavent |
| Manrose |
| The Stadium Group |
| Elta Fans |
| Trox |
| Vortice |
| Toshiba Carrier Corporation |
| Daikin |
| Mitsubishi |
| Hitachi |
| Fujitsu |
| IMI Air Conditioning |
| Airedale |
| Denco |
| Edenaire |
| Weatherite |
| AAF |
| Trane |
| York International |
| Trox |
| Ideal Boilers |
| Hamworthy Heating |
| BIB Cochran |
| Wellman Robey |
| Caradon Stelrad |
| Myson/Rettig and Barlo (Rettig) |
| PMP-Walney |
| Hudevad |
| Zehnder |
| Biddle Air Systems |
| Dunham Bush |
| Lennox |
| Powrmatic |
| Roberts Gordon |
| Youngman |
| Ambi-rad |
| Babcock Wanson |
| Schwank |
| Gas Fired Products. |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
| The overall non-domestic heating, ventilation and air conditioning market is estimated to be worth over £1.2 billion in 2002. |
| Whilst the overall HVAC market benefited from the completion of Millennium projects in 1999-2001, many products related to the hire market (chillers, portables, heaters, etc.) experienced adverse conditions in 2001 arising from the cancellation of events and movement restrictions associated with foot and mouth disease, with the impact of climatic factors also felt on the market in overall terms. However, heaters benefited from a strong temporary demand due to flooding and the associated 'drying-out' operations. |
| Varying levels of construction imparted different levels of activity to sectors of the HVAC market in 2001-2002, and with Government health, education and infrastructure viewed as long term motivating factors from 2003, reflecting new capital expenditure, often through PFI projects, there may be reasonable scope for overall market improvement 2004-2006. |
| Other macro issues affecting the market include higher standards of insulation required by Government legislation, tending to motivate sales of fans and reduce heating requirements, also the influence of the preponderance of the ageing population, which will tend to require more and higher levels of heating and ventilating activity, and stimulate the wider application of air conditioning in care homes and accommodation, for example. Government initiatives such as assistance in cases of 'fuel poverty' will also tend to improve the prospect for the heating sector generally although the main focus will evidently be in the domestic sector or perhaps in the care sector. |
| Historically, the mix of products has changed slightly over the last decade with air conditioning growing share to an estimated 41% in 2002. The accessories sector has also grown share, primarily due to an expanding product range, and the wider application of variable speed drives, PLCs, and control products motivated by environmental and energy-efficiency criteria. However, heating and ventilation sectors have remained fairly stable, reflecting a relatively mature market. |
| The overall market outlook is relatively stable although certain market sub-sectors will tend to perform better than others. It is our considered view that the medium term development of the market will derive more from the major increases in Government funding in health, education and infrastructure, also an anticipated growth in housebuilding, whilst in the longer term an improvement in manufacturing, IT and telecom may filter through to motivate the industrial HVAC sector. |
| Other influences which have a peripheral impact on the market include combined heat and power, various levels of heat recovery and energy efficiency, and the important concept of environmentally compatible refrigerants, with legionella a continual possible hazard. |
| Ventilation |
| In broad terms the Ventilation market consists of two core product types, principally axial and centrifugal fans. It is estimated that during 2002, the overall ventilation sector was worth around £192 million, with axial fans accounting for the largest share of this product sector. |
| Heat recovery technology has provided some minor value growth to the market but this is not viewed as offering significant growth opportunities. Advances in building design have resulted in improved insulation in commercial and domestic properties but have also increased the need for some ventilation products. Indications are, however, that air-conditioning products are constraining growth in the ventilation market. |
| There are a number of companies specialising in specific product application areas with suppliers looking to target niche markets in order to generate higher revenue. In terms of suppliers which have broader target markets, product range and turnover, Smiths Group (now HSBC owned), Flakt Woods Ltd, Greenwood Air Management, Applied Energy, Matthews & Yates and NuAire are included. |
| Air Conditioning |
| The air-conditioning market is estimated to contribute around 41% of the total value of the HVAC market though has exhibited a low level of growth during the last few years, with a 2002 market value of around £500 million. |
| Underlying trends supporting growth in the air conditioning market include greater expectations of comfort in the workplace and at home, improved air quality, the increase in popularity of PAC units, including hire and mobile air conditioning units, which are a central feature of market expansion. In addition, niche markets such as 'clean' rooms, hospitals, surgeries, provide further application opportunities. |
| However, the growth of portables in the PAC sector was impeded by adverse weather conditions in 2001-2002, whilst the central station sector was increasingly impacted by depressed conditions in manufacturing and telecommunication, which also contributed to market stagnation. Highly competitive imports and keen pricing strategies represented further limiting factors constraining growth in the overall market. |
| Future forecasts for the air conditioning market are dependent upon levels of Government investment in health, education and the infrastructure, and upon a sustained recovery in the manufacturing and telecommunications sectors. Whilst Government investment levels are likely to act as a positive influence in the short to medium term, the absence of an improvement in manufacturing and telecommunications tends to diminish overall growth prospects to around 1-2% in the short, medium and long term, although certain sectors are likely to perform better than others. |
| The air conditioning market is led by the Toshiba Carrier Corporation, Daikin, Mitsubishi, Hitachi and Fujitsu. Other air conditioning suppliers include IMI Air Conditioning, Airedale, Denco, Edenaire, Weatherite, AAF, Trane, York International, Trox, etc. |
| Non-Domestic Heating |
| The non-domestic heating sector is estimated to be worth around £198 million. The sector consists of Radiators, Commercial Boilers, Heat Emitters and Direct Heating appliances, with the product mix led by boilers, direct heating products, commercial radiators and heat emitters. |
| Growth in the market has been hampered by a number of factors including, reducing heat input requirement due to higher levels of insulation, the utilisation of fabric energy storage and solar gain, the heat generated in offices by computer and electronic devices, trends to heat recovery, and a marginal impact from air conditioning. |
| In general terms, the future prospects of all heating sectors will be influenced by the relative prices of gas, oil, coal and electricity at the time of installation on new build and refurbishment projects and by the relative efficiencies of the various methods' of heat transmission and whether process heat recovery opportunities are available. Heat recovery through CHP projects will also represent a peripheral influence in instances where electrical and heating loads may be 'matched'. |
| Key suppliers of boilers in the commercial sector include Ideal Boilers, Hamworthy Heating, BIB Cochran, and Wellman Robey. The major manufacturers of radiators are Caradon Stelrad, Myson/Rettig and Barlo (Rettig). However, there has been growing usage of specialist products such as LST (Low Surface Temperature) for care homes, hospitals, schools and 'designer' radiators. Suppliers of heat emitters include Biddle Air Systems, Dunham Bush and Lennox, warm air suppliers include Powrmatic, Roberts Gordon and Ambi-rad. Key competitors in radiant heating include Ambi-Rad, Roberts Gordon, Schwank and Gas Fired Products. |
| Heating & Ventilating Accessories |
| Non-domestic heating and ventilation accessories are estimated to have a market size of around £340 million in 2002. |
| Ventilation and air conditioning accessories account for the majority of this value. Overall, the sector has performed positively, primarily fuelled by products such as variable speed drives, filters and diffusers. Natural ventilation products have also performed satisfactorily with the continued use of 'passive stack ventilation' in Local Authority and Registered Social Landlord properties. Heating Accessories have also benefited from energy and environmental efficiency measures requiring |
TABLE OF CONTENTS
| 1. INTRODUCTION 7 |
| 2. SUMMARY 8 |
| 2.1 OVERALL MARKET 8 |
| 2.2 VENTILATION 10 |
| 2.3 AIR CONDITIONING 11 |
| 2.4 NON-DOMESTIC HEATING 12 |
| 2.5 HEATING & VENTILATING ACCESSORIES 13 |
| 3. KEY MARKET INFLUENCES - MACRO AND MICRO 14 |
| 3.1 MACRO-ECONOMIC INFLUENCES 14 |
| 3.1.1 GDP 14 |
| 3.1.2 Inflation & Interest Rates 15 |
| 3.1.3 Unemployment & Consumer Spending 16 |
| 3.1.4 Consumers Disposable Income Levels And Savings 16 |
| 3.1.5 Population 18 |
| 3.1.6 Sterling 19 |
| 3.2 CONSTRUCTION INFLUENCES 19 |
| 3.2.1 Contractors Output 19 |
| 3.2.2 Construction New Orders 20 |
| 3.3 THE HOUSING MARKET 22 |
| 3.3.1 New Housebuilding Sector 22 |
| 3.3.2 House Moving Levels 23 |
| 3.4 OTHER KEY FACTORS 24 |
| 3.5 CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS 25 |
| 4. VENTILATION 27 |
| 4.1 DEFINITION 27 |
| 4.2 MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS 27 |
| 4.2.1 Market Size 27 |
| 4.2.2 Future Trends 29 |
| 4.2.3 Constant Price Forecast 30 |
| 4.3 PRODUCTS 32 |
| 4.3.1 Market By Major Product Group 32 |
| 4.3.2 Non-Domestic Axial Fans 33 |
| 4.3.3 Centrifugal Fans 34 |
| 4.3.4 Domestic Extractor Fans Including Wall, Window and Ceiling Types 35 |
| 4.3.5 Roof Extract 36 |
| 4.3.6 Tangential 37 |
| 4.3.7 Desk & Ceiling Sweep 37 |
| 4.3.8 Other Fans/Ventilation 38 |
| 4.3.9 General Trends 38 |
| 4.4 COMPANIES AND SHARES 40 |
| 4.4.1 Shares 40 |
| 4.4.2 Companies 43 |
| 4.5 DISTRIBUTION 47 |
| 4.6 FUTURE PROSPECTS 49 |
| 5. AIR CONDITIONING 52 |
| 5.1 DEFINITION 52 |
| 5.2 MARKET SIZE 52 |
| 5.3 PRODUCTS 57 |
| 5.3.1 Product Mix 57 |
| 5.3.2 Packaged Air Conditioning Systems (PAC) 58 |
| 5.3.3 Central Station Air Conditioning Systems 61 |
| 5.4 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS 66 |
| 5.5 SUPPLIERS 68 |
| 5.5.1 Sector Shares 68 |
| 5.5.2 Companies 70 |
| 5.6 DISTRIBUTION INCLUDING SPECIFICATION 75 |
| 5.7 FUTURE PROSPECTS 78 |
| 6. NON-DOMESTIC SPACE HEATING 80 |
| 6.1 DEFINITION 80 |
| 6.2 MARKET SIZE 80 |
| 6.3 PRODUCTS 84 |
| 6.3.1 Indirect Heating 84 |
| 6.3.2 Direct Heating 91 |
| 6.4 SUPPLIERS AND SHARES 95 |
| 6.4.1 Boilers 95 |
| 6.4.2 Indirect Heat Emitters 98 |
| 6.4.3 Heat Emitters 98 |
| 6.4.4 Direct Heat Appliances 100 |
| 6.5 DISTRIBUTION 102 |
| 6.6 FUTURE PROSPECTS 105 |
| 7. ACCESSORIES 107 |
| 7.1 DEFINITION 107 |
| 7.2 MARKET 107 |
| 7.3 PRODUCTS 110 |
| 7.3.1 Ventilation & Air Conditioning Accessories 110 |
| 7.3.2 Heating Accessories 116 |
| 7.4 FUTURE PROSPECTS 119 |
DIAGRAMS
| CHART 1 OVERALL MARKET FOR VENTILATION, AIR CONDITIONING AND NON DOMESTIC HEATING 1995-2006 8 |
| CHART 2 MIX OF OVERALL MARKET BY PRODUCT GROUP - VALUE 2002 9 |
| TABLE 3 GDP PERCENTAGE CHANGE PER ANNUM 1980 - 2004 15 |
| CHART 4 INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (RPI) FROM 1990-2005 16 |
| CHART 5 PDI & SAVINGS RATIO 17 |
| CHART 6 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE RESIDENT UK POPULATION 2001 ('000) 18 |
| TABLE 7 CONTRACTORS OUTPUT - NEW WORK AND RMI NON HOUSING - CURRENT PRICES (£ MILLION) 1995-2004 20 |
| TABLE 8 NEW ORDERS OBTAINED BY CONTRACTORS 1994-2002 CURRENT PRICES 21 |
| TABLE 9 HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS (000'S DWELLINGS) 1994-2005 IN GREAT BRITAIN 22 |
| TABLE 10 NUMBER OF PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS IN ENGLAND AND WALES 1994-2002 24 |
| TABLE 11 UK MARKET SIZE FOR VENTILATION PRODUCTS 1996 - 2006 £M MSP 28 |
| CHART 12 VENTILATION MARKET IN CONSTANT 1995 PRICES (£M) 1996-2006 31 |
| TABLE 13 VENTILATION MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE 2002 32 |
| TABLE 14 MARKET SHARES OF UK FAN SUPPLIERS 2002 BY VALUE 40 |
| TABLE 15 UK NON-DOMESTIC AXIAL SUPPLIERS 2002 41 |
| TABLE 16 KEY UK DOMESTIC EXTRACTOR SUPPLIERS 2002 (AXIAL AND CENTRIFUGAL) 42 |
| TABLE 17 CENTRIFUGAL FAN SUPPLIERS 2002 (DOMESTIC AND NON-DOMESTIC) 43 |
| CHART 18 VENTILATION MARKET - DISTRIBUTION 2002 BY VALUE 47 |
| TABLE 19 THE UK AIR CONDITIONING MARKET 1996-2006 £M MSP 53 |
| CHART 20 THE UK AIR CONDITIONING MARKET, CONSTANT 1995 PRICES (£M) 1996 TO 06 54 |
| CHART 21 MIX OF AIR CONDITIONING SYSTEMS BY VALUE 1993 TO 2002 57 |
| TABLE 22 UK PACKAGED AIR CONDITIONING MARKET 1996-2006 58 |
| CHART 23 MIX OF PAC SYSTEM SALES BY VALUE 2002 60 |
| TABLE 24 THE UK CENTRAL STATION AIR CONDITIONING MARKET 1996-2006 62 |
| CHART 25 MIX OF CENTRAL STATION PRODUCTS BY VALUE - 2002 63 |
| CHART 26 MIX OF TERMINAL UNITS SALES 1990 AND 2002 BY VALUE £M MSP 65 |
| TABLE 27 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF AIR CONDITIONING PRODUCTS 1994 - 2001 67 |
| TABLE 28 MARKET SHARE IN THE PAC SYSTEM MARKET BY VALUE - 2002 68 |
| TABLE 29 MARKET SHARE IN THE CENTRAL SYSTEM MARKET BY VALUE - 2002 69 |
| TABLE 30 UK MARKET FOR NON DOMESTIC SPACE HEATING 1996 - 2006 (£M) 81 |
| CHART 31 UK NON-DOMESTIC SPACE HEATING MARKET CONSTANT 1995 PRICES 1996-2006 82 |
| TABLE 32 UK MARKET FOR COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL HOT WATER BOILERS 1996-2006 85 |
| TABLE 33 THE UK COMMERCIAL RADIATOR MARKET 1996 - 2006 87 |
| TABLE 34 THE UK HEAT EMITTER MARKET 1996 - 2006 89 |
| CHART 35 MIX OF HEAT EMITTER SALES BY VALUE 2002 90 |
| TABLE 36 THE UK WARM AIR HEATER MARKET 1996 - 2006 91 |
| CHART 37 MIX OF WARM AIR HEATERS 2002 BY VALUE 92 |
| TABLE 38 THE UK RADIANT HEATER MARKET 1996 - 2006 94 |
| TABLE 39 MIX OF RADIANT HEATING 2002 BY VALUE 95 |
| TABLE 40 MARKET SHARES IN UK NON-DOMESTIC BOILER MANUFACTURING MARKET - 2002 96 |
| TABLE 41 UK MARKET SHARES FOR EMITTERS BY VALUE 2002 99 |
| TABLE 42 MARKET SHARES OF THE MAJOR DIRECT WARM AIR HEAT APPLIANCE MANUFACTURERS 2002 100 |
| TABLE 43 MARKET STRUCTURE FOR THE RADIANT HEATING MANUFACTURERS 2002 102 |
| CHART 44 CHANNEL SHARE FOR DIRECT & INDIRECT HEATERS BY VALUE 2002 103 |
| TABLE 45 APPLICATION TYPE, DIRECT AND INDIRECT HEATERS BY VALUE 2002 104 |
| TABLE 46 THE UK MARKET FOR HEATING, VENTILATING AND AIR CONDITIONING ACCESSORIES 1996 - 2006 (£M MSP) 108 |
| TABLE 47 MIX OF VENTILATING AND CONDITIONING ACCESSORIES BY VALUE 2002 110 |
| TABLE 48 MIX OF HEATING ACCESSORIES BY VALUE 2002 116 |
Text © 2003 AMA Research
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