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AMA RESEARCH Market Report : UK Prefabricated Buildings: June 2004
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Introduction and Overview

AMA Research have published the fourth edition of 'The Prefabricated Buildings Market Report 2004'. Incorporating original input and primary research, the report represents an up-to-date and informed review of this rapidly changing and complex market.
 
Key issues covered include:
 
Market Size & Structure - Market value, trends, forecasts for future growth, key influencing factors etc.
 
Product Mix - Mix by value of Volumetric and Semi-finished.
 
Key End User Sectors - Analysis of end user sectors, mix by value, future growth potential etc. including commercial and industrial, residential, healthcare, education, hotels, hire, prisons, asylum accommodation centres, etc.
 
Major Suppliers - Market share, market position, relative end user strengths and company profiles.
 
Distribution - Major channels of distribution.
 
Component Specification Issues - supply of fixtures & fittings e.g. washroom facilities, glazing, heating etc.
 
Prefabricated buildings are a substantial and growing market characterised by increasing levels of market penetration in a wide range of end user sectors. Prefabricated buildings have a substantial market potential, with forecasts of buoyant growth for the market as a whole. The report excludes greenhouses, conservatories, sheds, and mainstream timber frame housing. AMA's new report on 'Timberframe Housing Market - UK 2004-2007' reviews developments in the timberframe sector.
 
Of Particular Interest:-
 
Future growth prospects - steel, concrete and timber.
 
Trends to productivity enhancement - growth of off-site manufacturing.
 
Review of trends in the housebuilding sector to prefabricated methods of construction.
 
Major suppliers shares of the UK prefabricated buildings market.
 
Review of cladding facing materials.
 
Building management system trends.
 
The report covers the following key areas:-
 
MARKET
 
Total Prefabricated Buildings Market 1996-2007 - market analysis by value and forecasts.
 
Key influencing factors affecting market growth - level of construction and manufacturing activity, growth of offsite fabrication, quality issues, trends leading to increased demand for prefabricated buildings in certain sectors e.g. healthcare, education, residential, prisons, asylum/immigration centres etc.
 
Total Prefabricated Buildings Product Mix - analysis by product type - volumetric and semi-finished - changing trends and future prospects.
 
Review of prefabricated buildings in the housebuilding sector - key growth sector.
 
Major channels of distribution - relative importance of sales and hire.
 
Key areas of end user growth, and forecasts for product mix in 2007.
 
END USE SECTORS
 
Mix of key end user sectors by value.
 
Key end user sectors - Reviews of major end user groups and subsectors e.g. Commercial and Industrial, Education, health care, residential, hire, hotel/catering, prisons, asylum centres, etc.
 
Key future trends for the usage of prefabricated buildings, future growth potential of the residential sector, product issues, etc.
 
Key suppliers to the various end user sectors.
 
Influencing factors of future end user growth potential, e.g. trends in capital expenditure and accommodation requirements, major changes in health and education, impact of PFI/PPP etc.
 
Market/Product Specification Issues
 
General trend towards OSM (off-site Manufacturing) to improve quality standards and address problems of site-skills shortages.
 
Review of fixtures, fittings and components including Windows and Doors, Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning, Washroom Facilities, Electrical Lighting and Security Facilities, Power Supply, Building Management Systems.
 
Review of broad levels of specification in end user sectors.
 
Growth in the use of appliances, fixtures and fittings in prefabricated buildings.
 
SUPPLIERS
 
Market Shares of the major suppliers in the prefabricated building market - 2003 by value.
 
Profiles of major suppliers including turnover, style of building, market positioning, brand names etc.
 
Review of the key channels of distribution used by leading suppliers - direct supply, hire etc.
 
Key end user sectors of individual suppliers and future growth potential etc.

Executive Summary

In the two years under review since our last report, the UK prefabricated buildings market has experienced a period of significant expansion with the total market in 2003 estimated at £512 million at manufacturers selling prices, which represents growth of around 9% compared with the previous year.
 
During the period 1996-2003, the market experienced annual growth of around 1-8%, reflecting varying levels of activity in construction sectors - for example, the positive impact of millennium and Government health and education funding, and the adverse effects of the global recession/decline in IT and telecoms 2001-2002. The years 2002-3 witnessed a continuation of these trends, but in overall terms the prefabricated sector exhibited significant growth driven by positive conditions in many end-use sectors, for example higher levels of Government expenditure on health, education, and security protection and detection.
 
More recently, during 2003/early 2004, activity levels in commercial construction have remained low but in overall terms the construction market has been stimulated by substantial increases in health, education, defence and infrastructure funding, also an increasing awareness of the need to alleviate the housing shortage highlighted in the Barker Report, by, amongst other measures, 'freeing up the housing market'. This may result in higher levels of housebuilding starts in the long term, depending upon the level of implementation by the Government of Barker's recommendations. The key issue of overall acceptability levels of prefabrication by home owners in the relation to traditional build also remains to be resolved.
 
As a general comment, market penetration of the various levels of prefabrication in concrete steel and timber have been facilitated by regulatory and innovative influences, particularly in the steel frame sector where the continuing underlying technology support and product development of Corus has played a significant role in propelling the metal sector into greater prominence.
 
Innovative influences are also motivating timber frame and concrete, with the mass production of timber house components, and the concrete specialists broadening the scope of precasting and cladding options including high level prefinishing for robust cellular custodial applications. Developments in highly productive cladding products have also assisted market penetration - for example, Baggeridge's Corium and Kingspan's Kingframe.
 
From 2004-2007, the overall market is forecast to continue to grow at a rate of around 10-11% per annum, reflecting growth in a range of end use sectors, increasing levels of government expenditure, and expansion in concrete, steel frame and pods including volume production for accommodation blocks and prisons. Growing penetration in the housebuilding sector may also provide some additional motivation in the medium term and represents a major area of opportunity for prefabrication and off-site manufacturing in general. Furthermore, market penetration continues to be facilitated by PFI and PPP, which is underpinning capital expenditure in the public sector.
 
The market has been segmented by type of building, and by type of end user. The term 'volumetric' refers to off-site completed units, pods or modules, whilst we have used the term 'semi-finished' to refer to partially assembled units, pods or modules requiring a greater degree of assembly on site. Both 'volumetric' and 'semi-finished' include pre-cast concrete, steel frame and timber. The majority of prefabricated buildings, including steel cabins, accommodation and storage units, are of the volumetric type, with a market share of around 65% by value, whilst semi-finished have a share of around 35%. Timber frame housing and traditional methods of construction, lie outside the scope of this report which focuses exclusively on prefabricated volumetric and semi-finished units. However, timber frame housing is comprehensively reviewed in AMA's new report on the 'UK Timber Frame Housing Market - UK 2004-2007'.
 
The market for prefabricated buildings has also been segmented by end user. End user sectors comprise commercial and industrial, hotels, educational, residential, healthcare, hire, defence, and the infrastructure including asylum centres, immigrant detention centres and prisons and community facilities, etc. Forecasts indicate varying levels of growth in these sectors dependent on end-user market growth and the likelihood of share gain from traditional building where the scarcity of skilled personnel will be accentuated by recent increases in government funding, notably sectors such as social housing, health, education, infrastructure, prisons, asylum accommodation centres and immigration detention centres. Product innovation also influences sector growth prospects with Corus' blast resistant structure representing a significant technical advance with potentially a wide application.
 
Several niche growth sectors have been identified. These include the growth of the security sector, (for example explosion resistant buildings), modular accommodation, private houses, self-contained cabins, and 'welfare' units, power units, etc. It is likely that volumetric and semi-finished production will increasingly penetrate the private housing market as a result of prefabrication developments including a wider choice and selection of prefabricated houses, also the impact of substantial production resources emanating from Framing Solutions, Space 4, etc.
 
Meanwhile, levels of productivity are improving in the masonry sector with the application of production engineering techniques, standardisation, and fabrication of components and subassemblies as part of the move to prefabrication by housebuilders and suppliers generally.
 
The prefabricated building industry is becoming increasingly fragmented as a wide range of companies are attracted to the growth prospects of prefabricated structures.. Our estimates for 2003 indicate that the overall market leader is the Shepherd Building Group, which has four subsidiaries Portakabin, Portasilo, Yorkon, and Foreman with a collective share of around 20%. Elliott Group are estimated to account for a 15% share followed by Atlas Ward, Cosalt and GB Industries each with a 6-9% share. GB Industries (formerly Horncastle Industries) includes Britspace, Gateway Fabrications and Ultra Secure Products. It is estimated that shares of around 2-5% are held by CV Buchan, Compton, RB Farquhar, Rollalong, Terrapin, Thurston, Tingdene, Premier Transline, Precast Cellular Structures, Stackright Building Systems, Wernick, Caledonian Building Systems, all significant players. Others also include Kingspan Metl-Con, SGB Rovacabin, Volumetric, McAvoy Group, Bell and Webster, Bison, etc.
 
In addition, Westbury have a substantial in house prefabrication - Space 4, whilst Unite operate an in-house prefabricated facility including mass-produced pods for student accommodation blocks.
 
As previously indicated, our estimates of market shares refer to 2003. Since substantial growth of around 10-11% has occurred in the overall market 2003-2004, it is likely that forecasts for 2004 will reflect varying levels of growth in material sectors and the impact of several new growing entrants. This will tend to result in some share changes.

Companies Mentioned

Shepherd Building Group, Portakabin, Portasilo, Elliott Group, Horncastle Industries, Britspace, Gateway Fabrications, Ultra Secure Products, SGB Rovacabin, Bison Structures, Pre Cast Cellular Structures, Stackright Building Systems, Bell and Webster, Compton Buildings, Volumetric, RB Farquhar, Elliott Hire, Rollalong, Premier Transline Hire, Caledonian Safemaker, Cox Accommodation, Hewden Stuart, Unite Group, Terrapin, Conport., Premier Group, Horncastle Industries plc, Tingdene Homes, Bell and Webster, Atlas Ward, Ultra Secure Products, Cosalt Holiday Homes Ltd, Volumetric Ltd, Potton Group, Butler Europe, S Wernick & Sons, Pinelog Ltd, Glasdon Group Ltd, Handon Building Materials Europe, Tilden Group of Companies, Bell and Webster Concrete, Churchtown Buildings, Bailey & Davidson, Pyramid Building Systems, The Unite Group, Bullock & Driffill, Balmoral Modular Building Systems, Caledonian Building Systems, David Webster Group, Clarks Portable Accommodation, Thomas Mitchell Homes, Sturdy Concrete Garages & Industrial Buildings, Sutcliffes, Blue Box Modular Buildings, Frank H Dale, Nethan Valley Homes.

List of Contents

1 INTRODUCTION
2 SUMMARY
3 ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
3.1 GDP
3.2 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES
3.3 UNEMPLOYMENT
3.4 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
3.5 HOUSING & CONSTRUCTION
3.6 POPULATION PROFILE
3.7 CONCLUSIONS
4 THE MARKET
4.1 MARKET DEFINITION
4.2 MARKET TRENDS
4.3 PREFABRICATED BUILDINGS PRODUCT MIX
4.4 DISTRIBUTION
4.5 END USE SECTORS DEFINITION
4.5.1 Residential
4.5.2 Commercial And Industrial Applications
4.5.3 Hotel & Catering
4.5.4 Hire
4.5.5 Education
4.5.6 Healthcare
4.5.7 Other Applications
4.6 END USER SECTOR FORECASTS
4.7 PRODUCT ISSUES AND BUYING STRATEGY
4.7.1 Windows and Doors
4.7.2 Heating
4.7.3 Ventilation and Air Conditioning
4.7.4 Washroom Facilities
4.7.5 Electrical, Lighting and Security Facilities
4.7.6 Power Supply
4.7.7 Internal Decor and Finishing
4.7.8 Building Management Systems and Controls
4.7.9 Buying Strategy
5 SUPPLIERS
5.1 MARKET SHARES
5.2 SUPPLIER PROFILES
6 KEY MARKET INFLUENCES
6.1 CONTRACTORS OUTPUT
6.2 THE HOUSING MARKET
6.3 INDUSTRIAL SECTORS
6.3.1 Growth of 'High Bay' Structures in Superstores and Large Format Warehouse Outlets
6.3.2 Security Sector
6.4 FACING MATERIALS
7 FUTURE PROSPECTS

Tables and Charts

CHART 1 PREFABRICATED BUILDINGS MARKET 1996-2007 AT £M MSP
CHART 2 INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (RPI) FROM 1990-2005
CHART 3 PDI & SAVINGS RATIO 1980-2005
CHART 4 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE RESIDENT UK POPULATION 2001 ('000)
TABLE 5 UK PREFABRICATED BUILDING MARKET 1996-2007, BY VALUE £M MSP
CHART 6 PRODUCT MIX IN THE UK PREFABRICATED BUILDINGS MARKET 2003 BY VALUE
CHART 7 DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE FOR PREFABRICATED BUILDINGS
CHART 8 MIX OF SALES OF PREFABRICATED BUILDINGS TO MAJOR END USER SECTORS BY VALUE 2003
CHART 9 SELF-BUILD HOUSE-BUILDING MARKET BY VOLUME1998-2004
TABLE 10 FIXED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE BY UK INDUSTRY 1996-2002 (£BN) AT CURRENT PRICES
TABLE 11 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE BY UK MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY ON NEW BUILDING WORK 1996-2002 (£M CURRENT PRICES)
TABLE 12 TOTAL NUMBER OF PERSONNEL IN UK SERVICES 1996-2003 (THOUSANDS)
CHART 13 FORECAST MIX OF SALES OF PREFABRICATED BUILDINGS TO MAJOR END USER SECTORS BY VALUE - 2007
TABLE 14 INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION INTO AND OUT OF THE UK 1996-2001
TABLE 15 SUPPLIER SHARES OF THE PREFABRICATED BUILDINGS MARKET 2003
TABLE 16 CONTRACTORS OUTPUT - NEW WORK AND RMI NON HOUSING - CURRENT PRICES (£ MILLION) 1995-2004
TABLE 17 NEW ORDERS OBTAINED BY CONTRACTORS 1994-2003 CURRENT PRICES
TABLE 18 HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS (000'S DWELLINGS) 1994-2005 IN GREAT BRITAIN
TABLE 19 HOUSING STARTS 1996-2006 GREAT BRITAIN ('000)
TABLE 20 UK VALUE OF HOUSEBUILDING CONTRACTORS OUTPUT AT CURRENT PRICES (£ MILLION) 1992-2002
TABLE 21 LEVEL OF UK MANUFACTURING OUTPUT 1997-2004 (1995 = 100)
TABLE 22 EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 1997-2004 - DM, DOLLARS, AND THE ECU TO THE POUND STERLING, SPOT RATES
CHART 23 DIY MULTIPLE MARKET 1995-2006 - CURRENT PRICES
TABLE 24 UK CLADDING FACING MATERIALS MARKET FORECAST 1998-2007
CHART 25 UK CLADDING FACING MATERIALS MARKET - PRODUCT MIX BY VALUE 2003

Text © 2004 AMA Research

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