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AM45110 AMA PREFABRICATED BUILDING MARKET SEPTEMBER 2000

This report covers:

Companies covered include:

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KEY POINTS

Key Issues Covered Include:

Prefabricated buildings are a substantial and growing market characterised by increasing levels of specification and share growth in a wide range of end user sectors. Prefabricated buildings have a substantial market potential, with positive forecasts for growth for the market as a whole.

The report covers the following key areas:-

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

The UK Prefabricated Buildings Market 2000

Page

1. Introduction 6
2. Summary 7
3. Economic Environment 10
3.1 General 10
3.2 GDP Growth 10
3.3 Interest Rates and Inflation 11
3.4 Unemployment 11
3.5 Household Consumption, Earnings and Spending 11
3.6 Sterling 12
3.7 Conclusion 12
4. The Market 13
4.1 Market Definition 13
4.2 Market History 13
4.3 Prefabricated Buildings Product Mix 1999 20
4.4 Distribution 22
4.5 End Use Sectors Definition 24
4.5.1 Residential 27
4.5.2 Commercial and Industrial Applications 32
4.5.3 Hotel & Catering 35
4.5.4 Portable Cabin Hire 37
4.5.5 Educational Applications 38
4.5.6 Healthcare Applications 39
4.5.7 Other Applications 41
4.6 End User Sector Forecasts 47
4.7 Product Issues and Buying Strategy 50
4.7.1 Windows 50
4.7.2 Doors 51
4.7.3 Heating 51
4.7.4 Ventilation and Air Conditioning 52
4.7.5 Washroom Facilities 52
4.7.6 Electrical and Security Facilities 54
4.7.7 Internal Decor & Finishing 54
4.7.8 Miscellaneous 54
4.7.9 Buying Strategy 55
5. Suppliers 56
5.1 Market Shares 56
5.2 Supplier Profiles 57
6. KEY MARKET INFLUENCES 64
6.1 UK Economy 64
6.2 Construction 64
6.3 New Housebuild 67
6.4 Housing Starts 69
6.4.1 Regional Housebuilding Starts 72
6.5 Population Profile 75
6.6 Employment / Unemployment 77
6.7 Interest Rates 78
7. Future prospects 82

Tables And Charts

Chart 1: Prefabricated Buildings Market 1996-2004 at £m MSP 7
Table 2: UK Prefabricated Building Market 1996-2004, by Value £m MSP 15
Chart 3: Product Mix In The UK Prefabricated Buildings Market 1999 By Value 20
Chart 4: Distribution Structure for Prefabricated Buildings 23
Chart 5: Mix of Sales of Prefabricated Buildings to Major End User Sectors by Value 1999 26
Table 6: Relative Importance Of Specification Criteria (Scale 1-5, 5 Being Most Important) 30
Table 7: Fixed Capital Expenditure By UK Industry 1994-1999 (£M) At Current Prices 33
Table 8: Capital Expenditure by UK Manufacturing Industry on New Building Work 1994-1999 (£m Current Prices) 34
Table 9: Hotel & Fast Food Outlets In The UK 1997-1999 35
Table 10: Capital Expenditure By Service In England And Wales 1997/1998 42
Table 11: Total Number Of Personnel In UK Services 1995-1997 (Thousands) 44
Table 12: Clubs And Societies In The UK 1999 46
Chart 13: Forecast Mix Of Sales Of Prefabricated Buildings To Major End User Sectors By Value – 2004 47
Table 14: International Migration Into And Out Of The UK 1994-1997 49
Table 15: Market Shares of The Prefabricated Buildings Market in 1999 56
Table 16: Contractors Output - New Work And RMI Non Housing - Current Prices(£m) 65
Table 17: New Orders Obtained By Contractors 1990-1999 Current Prices 66
Table 18: Housebuilding Completions (000’s Dwellings) 1988-2003 In Great Britain 68
Table 19: Housing Starts 1984-2003 In Great Britain By Sector (‘000) 70
Table 20: Housebuilding Starts For The Private Sector - England by Region 1995-1999 by Volume (000’s) 73
Table 21: Housebuilding Starts For The Public Sector – England by Region 1995-1999 by Volume (000’s) 74
Chart 22: Age Distribution Of The Resident UK Population June 1998 (‘000) 76
Chart 23: Number Of Employees In Employment GB - June 1981-98 (Millions) 77
Chart 24: Interest Rates And Inflation (RPI) From 1990-2003 78
Chart 25: PDI & Savings Ratio 79
Chart 26:

Engineering Sales Output Changes

80

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (1998)

The prefabricated buildings market is a relatively fragmented sector, with many end users with differing needs and requirements. Over the last few years, the market has experienced periods of sustained and often rapid growth in value as higher volumes of buildings have been purchased, with levels of specification increasing.

The total market in 1997 is estimated at £355 million at manufacturers selling prices, which represents strong growth of around 9 percent from the previous year. During the period of 1994-1997, the market experienced healthy rates of growth of around 27 percent overall. The majority of this growth was achieved during 1996 and 1997, with economic growth stimulating demand for greater volume and higher specification buildings. Over the next 3-4 years the market is forecast to continue to grow steadily at a rate of around 4 percent per annum, which represents a lower rate of growth as the economy slows down. Longer term forecasts from 2000 onwards are more positive, with predicted increases in the levels of business investment stimulating overall demand.

The market can be segmented by style of building and by end user type. The vast majority of prefabricated buildings are volumetric style, with a market share of around 75 percent by value, with post panel buildings taking a share of around 16 percent. Overall market trends within the construction industry are towards less on-site erection, which therefore reduces the need for skilled labour, eliminates delays caused by the weather and ensures higher quality output. Our forecasts are for a continuation of the dominance of volumetric style buildings for the above reasons.

The market for prefabricated buildings can also be segmented by end user sectors, which can be varied with vastly different requirements in terms of size, appearance etc. The majority of the end users of prefabricated buildings are within the commercial, hotel and catering, educational, residential, healthcare and portable cabin sectors. Forecasts for growth indicate greater development and market share gain within the commercial, hotel and catering, residential and educational sectors.

The market for prefabricated buildings has a significant impact on the markets for components, fixtures and fittings. Prefabricated buildings are generally 'complete' structures which includes doors, windows, sanitary facilities etc. The end user often dictates the level of specification and amount of furniture and furnishings which are supplied with the buildings. For example, portable cabins are generally very basic in terms of the doors, windows, decor, heating systems etc, which will be supplied as standard, whereas a hotel will contain higher specification, more aesthetically pleasing, components and factory fitted furniture.

The prefabricated building industry is a very fragmented market, with many suppliers all holding a relatively low market share. The overall market leader is the Shepherd Building Group, which has three subsidiaries Portakabin, Portasilo and Yorkon, with a collective share around 15 percent. Among the other prominent suppliers are the Elliott Group, Atlas Ward, Volumetric and SGB Rovacabin.

Perhaps the most important issue within the prefabricated buildings market is their growth within the residential sector. In the past, prefabricated buildings have been used for mainstream housing, however, they have often proved unpopular with residents and currently suffer from image problems. Prefabricated buildings are now on the verge of re-entering the mainstream housing market and offers major potential for the future. Equally, recent government expenditure announcements for significant increases in capital spending in education and health also offers the industry substantial potential in the medium term.

This comprehensive report represents a detailed assessment of the market, reviewing major trends, key factors influencing developments and future prospects for the sector. Analysis is both quantitative and qualitative, based on our substantial experience of the building and home improvement markets.

Text © 2000 AMA Research

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Last updated by Duncan Nottage 5th October 2000