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AM31029 AMA ELECTRICAL WHOLESALE MARKET 1999

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THIS REPORT HAS BEEN UPDATED - PLEASE REFER TO THE 2000 VERSION

KEY AREAS

THE MARKET

THE WHOLESALERS

PRODUCTS

FUTURE PROSPECTS/HOUSING/CONSTRUCTION

The report contains over 100 pages of original research and comment on the UK Electrical Wholesale industry and provides incisive and thought-provoking views on its future development.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Market Size

In 1998 the Electrical Wholesale Market was worth some £2.5 billion at wholesaler selling prices.

Following good growth to a peak in 1990, the market exhibited a significant decline in the early part of the decade due to reduced levels of new build and RMI throughout the domestic and non-domestic sectors, during the recession. This resulted in a reduced requirement for the majority of electrical products, although some product areas, such as security, continued to show some underlying growth.

An improvement in the economic situation contributed to modest growth after 1993 with an upturn in the housing market in 1996 and 1997, and continued growth in non-domestic construction, particularly in the commercial sector and an upturn in public sector investment. More recently in 1998, the electrical wholesale market has been adversely affected by the decline in industrial output and the impact of the strong pound sterling, stimulating import substitution in the UK market and reducing export demand for products incorporating electrical accessories supplied by electrical wholesalers. Weakening commodity prices also accompanied these trends, driving down average prices for some products and overall market values. While volumes have risen in 1998 and 1999, eroding prices have limited market growth opportunities.

The outlook for the electrical wholesale market, is, in overall terms, limited in the short-term, although it should be emphasised that certain sectors will perform better than others. In the medium to long term a low level of growth is forecast, as industrial output slowly improves. It is also forecast that construction output will become more positive, dependent upon the timing of commissioning and completion schedules. The domestic building sector is also likely to give some medium term impetus to the market, reflecting a higher level of confidence amongst housebuilders and consumers and wider use of electrical products in the home.

In general terms, the following factors are expected to positively influence the electrical wholesaling market:

However, there are also a number of threats including the shift to electronic actuation and control, which could negatively impact on the volume of electrical component demand in the longer term future.

Electrical Wholesalers

The key Wholesaler groups are Edmundson, Newey & Eyre, CEF, Senate, WF Electrical, Wiltshire Wholesalers, Denmans and J & N Wade. These groups have progressively increased their market dominance, largely through acquisition, and now account for some 70 percent of the industry.

The balance, accounted for by a number of regional and local wholesalers, has been reduced by acquisitions by the national groups, and to a lesser extent by business failures.

Marlowe/Edmundson are now the largest Wholesaler group, followed by market leading companies including Newey & Eyre, CEF, Senate, WF Electrical, Denmans and others.

The larger wholesaling groups continue to take share from the smaller companies due to their greater ability to negotiate bulk purchasing discounts from manufacturers, operation of central stock warehouses (which enable reduced stock holding and greater resources to invest in services including sophisticated IT systems), product catalogues, telesales facilities etc. This has driven a number of wholesalers to specialise in niche product sectors in order to maintain their market share.

The Electrical Wholesalers remain the dominant distribution channel for the majority of electrical products and have a well established and loyal customer base. Their key strengths include the wide product range offered, the service offered to their customers in terms of credit, payment facilities, delivery, product knowledge etc.

The majority of wholesalers have reduced their stockholding during the 1990’s and whilst this represents a financial advantage in terms of reduced costs, it has led to some dissatisfaction amongst customers due to longer product delivery lead times. This has enabled competitive channels for example, electronic component distributors who sell electrical and electronic products - to gain a foothold in the market.

Many of the larger wholesaling groups have responded by investing in sophisticated computerised stock control systems and central/regional stock warehouses, enabling them to offer a same day/next day delivery service. Indications are that the smaller wholesalers may remain at a disadvantage in this respect being forced, either to increase stock levels, to source from the ‘Super’ distributors at a price disadvantage or to lose business to other distributors.

The general industry shift towards electronic and telecommunications - based products may result in further share gain by the Component Distributors. However these product areas, in which the Electrical Wholesalers are not well established, also represent growth opportunities to the wholesalers.

Pricing and profitability continues to be eroded by low priced imports and the low level of industrial demand. Profitability also continues to be adversely affected by the competitive nature of the electrical contracting market.

It is estimated that small wholesalers are in general terms unable to negotiate the bulk purchasing discounts available to the larger groups and in an effort to increase their profitability an increasing number have joined buying groups, such as AED, ANEW, EMMA, AWEBB, MIDA and REWARD, over the last few years.

Although Electrical Wholesalers face competition in some areas of their business, particularly from the Electronic Component Distributors, DIY Outlets, and 'Direct' sales, their dominant position in the distribution of electrical products is likely to be maintained due to their unequalled product range, the loyalty of their customer base and continuing emphasis on 'keen' pricing.

Product Groups

The major product groups marketed by the Wholesalers are cables, lighting and switchgear/circuit protection. These categories account for some 48 percent of Wholesalers turnover, with the remainder being accounted for by trunking and accessories, wiring accessories, test equipment, fire and security products, electric space heating, ventilation, water heating and a broad category of ‘other products’.

The market for cables and accessories is expected to exhibit some growth over the short to medium term, reflecting growth in domestic and non-domestic construction, as well as increasing penetration and use of electrical appliances both in the home and commercial applications. Cable accessories in particular are likely to benefit from this trend, with increasingly complex wiring arrangements. Growth in the market for circuit breakers and switchgear is likely, reflecting factors including increasing safety consciousness and a trend towards added-value circuit breaking equipment.

Lighting is expected to show future growth reflecting emergency lighting requirements etc, and an upturn in construction, as well as use of added value products including energy saving, low voltage and customised products. However, in the longer term growth may be constrained by sales of long-life lamps and market maturity.

The security and fire systems markets are expected to continue to exhibit growth over the next few years due to increasing emphasis on safety and security issues, and security particularly represents an area of opportunity for the Electrical Wholesalers.

The electric space heating sector is likely to show only modest growth due to the increasing penetration of gas central heating.

In general, the products which constitute the bulk of the Wholesalers business are expected to perform positively in the medium and long term contributing to growth in the overall Electrical Wholesaler market. In addition, wholesalers have the opportunity to capitalise on the increasing use of electronics within the electrical industry by stocking a wider range of products including Programmable Logic Controllers, Data and Telecommunications Cables etc.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

The Uk Electrical Wholesale Market 1999 - CONTENTS
Page
1. INTRODUCTION
6
2. SUMMARY
7
2.1 Market Size
7
2.2 Electrical Wholesalers
9
2.3 Product Groups
10
3. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
12
3.1 GDP Growth
12
3.2 Interest Rates and Inflation
13
3.3 Unemployment
13
3.4 Sterling
13
4. THE MARKET
15
4.1 Market Definition
15
4.2 Market Structure
16
4.2.1 Distribution
16
4.2.2 Competitive Channels
18
4.3 Market Size
19
5. THE ELECTRICAL WHOLESALERS
25
5.1 Strengths Of Electrical Wholesalers
25
5.1.1 Product Range
25
5.1.2 Stock Levels
27
5.1.3 Customer Loyalty
28
5.1.4 Service
29
5.1.5 Delivery
30
5.1.6 Supplier Links
31
5.1.7 Profitability
32
5.1.8 Employment
34
5.2 Weaknesses Of Electrical Wholesalers
36
5.2.1 Presentation/Media
36
5.2.2 Opening Hours
36
5.2.3 DIY Outlets
37
5.2.4 Comparison With The Electronic Component Distributors
37
5.2.5 Credit Risks
37
5.3 Buying Groups and Pre-Packers
39
5.4 Electrical Wholesalers
42
5.4.1 Mix of Nationals & Regionals
42
5.4.2 Market Shares of Leading Wholesalers
43
5.4.3 Electrical Wholesale Companies
43
5.5 Role of the 'Super' Distributor
49
6. PRODUCTS
51
6.1 Product Mix
51
6.1.1 Mix Of Wholesaler Sales
51
6.1.2 Electrical Wholesaler's Product Share
52
6.2 Product Group Trends
53
6.2.1 Cables
53
6.2.2 Wiring Accessories
55
6.2.3 Circuit Protection And Switchgear
58
6.2.4 Lighting
61
6.2.5 Electric Space Heating
64
6.2.6 Security Systems and Fire Alarm Systems
65
6.2.7 Ventilation
68
6.2.8 Electric Water Heating – Domestic and Commercial
71
6.2.9 Trunking, Cable Accessories and Enclosures/Cable Trays
73
6.2.10 Test Equipment
75
6.2.11 Other Products
75
6.2.12 Product Opportunities
76
7. ELECTRICAL WHOLESALERS CUSTOMERS
78
7.1 Mix of Wholesaler Sales
78
7.2 Customers
79
7.2.1 Electrical Contractors
79
7.2.2 Electricity Companies
84
7.2.3 In-House Electrical Engineers
85
7.2.4 Panel Builders
85
7.2.5 Other Sectors
86
8. KEY MARKET INFLUENCES
87
8.1 Construction
87
8.2 General
89
8.2.1 Interest Rates & Inflation
89
8.3 Housing
92
8.3.1 New House Build
92
8.3.2 House Moving Levels
94
8.3.3 Population Profile
95
8.3.4 Employment/Unemployment
97
8.4 Industrial Sectors
98
8.4.1 Output from the Engineering Manufacturing Industry
98
8.4.2 Exchange Rate Fluctuations
100
8.4.3 Overall Trends In the Usage Of Electricity
101
9. FUTURE PROSPECTS
104
9.1 Background
104
9.2 Competitive Channels
105
9.3 Trends within the Electrical Wholesale Market
107

TABLES & CHARTS

Table 1: The Electrical Wholesale Market (£m) at Wholesaler Selling Prices 1993-2003
7
Chart 2: Distribution Structure
16
Table 3: The Electrical Wholesale Market (£m) at Wholesaler Selling Prices, 1990-1998
20
Table 4: The Electrical Wholesale Market (£m) at Wholesalers Prices, 1998-2003
21
Chart 5: Electrical Wholesale Market (Real Terms-1995 prices WSP)
22
Chart 6: Wholesalers Stocking Each Key Product Group 1998
26
Chart 7: Average Stockholding Levels In Weeks (52 Weeks pa) From 1992 to 1998
27
Chart 8: Electrical Wholesalers Profit percent Net Profit On Turnover 1990-1998
33
Chart 9: Employment Levels & Turnover Per Head In Electrical Wholesalers
35
Chart 10: Electrical Wholesalers Debtor Level (weeks 52 PA) 1990-1998
38
Chart 11: Mix of Electrical Wholesale Market - percentage by Value 1998
42
Chart 12: Electrical Wholesale Market Shares 1998 By Value
43
Table 13: Mix of Product Sales Through Electrical Wholesalers 1998 (£m at Wholesaler Selling Prices)
51
Table 14: Electrical Wholesaler’s Share of Product’s Market - 1998 (£m at Wholesaler Selling Prices)
52
Chart 15: UK Medium/Low Voltage Insulated Cable Market 1992-2003 (£m WSP)
53
Chart 16: UK Wiring Accessories Market 1992-2003 (£m WSP)
56
Chart 17: UK Low Voltage Circuit Protection & Switchgear 1992-2003
58
Chart 18: UK Lamp & Luminaires Market 1992-2003 £m WSP
61
Chart 19: UK Electric Space Heating Market 1992-2003 (£m WSP)
64
Chart 20: Development Of The Combined UK Security Systems And Fire Protection Systems Market From 1992-2003
66
Chart 21: UK Market For Ventilation Products 1992-2003 £m
69
Chart 22: Domestic & Small Commercial Electric Water Heating Market 1992-2003 (£m WSP)
71
Chart 23: UK Market For Trunking and Enclosures/Cable Trays & Cable Accessories 1992-2003 (£m WSP)
73
Table 24: Mix of Wholesaler Sales 1998
78
Table 25: Electrical Contractors Registered for VAT by Turnover Band 1997
80
Chart 26: Number of Electrical Contractors by Turnover Sizebands 1991-1997
81
Table 27: Contractors Output - New Work and RMI Non Housing - Current Prices (£m)
87
Table 28: New Orders Obtained by Contractors 1990-1998 Current Prices (£m)
88
Chart 29: Interest Rates and Inflation (RPI) from 1990-2000
90
Chart 30: PDI & Savings Ratio
91
Table 31: Housing Completions 1990-1998 Great Britain (‘000)
92
Table 32: Housing Starts 1993-1998 Great Britain (‘000)
93
Table 33: Value of New UK Housing Output and RMI Output (£m)
94
Table 34: Number of Property Transactions in England and Wales 1990-1998
95
Chart 35: Age Distribution of the Resident UK Population 1997 (‘000)
96
Chart 36: Number of Employees in Employment GB - June 1981-98 (Millions)
97
Table 37: Comparison of Engineering Sector Output By SIC Code (1990=100) 1996-2000
98
Table 38: Comparison of Engineering Sector Output by SIC Code 1996-2000 (1990=100)
99
Table 39: Exchange Rate Fluctuations 1994-1999 - DM, Dollars, and the ECU to the Pound Sterling, Spot Rates
101
Table 40: Sales By The Public Electricity Suppliers 1992-1998
102

Text © 1999 AMA Research

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