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AM26090 AMA CERAMIC TILES MARKET JANUARY 2000 (UPDATED 2001)

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Companies covered include:

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KEY AREAS

MARKET SIZE

PRODUCT MIX

APPLICATION AREAS

SUPPLY & DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURES

FUTURE PROSPECTS/KEY INFLUENCES

The report contains over 30 tables and charts, incorporating ORIGINAL research and comment on the UK ceramic tile market, providing incisive and thought provoking views on the industry’s development.

AMA Research are specialist publishers of a wide range of reports in home improvement markets including Builders Merchants, DIY Multiples, Wallcoverings, Floorcoverings, Contract Floorcoverings, Conservatories, Showers, Bathrooms etc.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The UK Ceramic Tiles Market is relatively fragmented in terms of end-use sectors, but is becoming more concentrated in the manufacturing and distribution sectors.

The total market in 1999 is estimated to be approximately £329m at manufacturers' selling prices, which represents an increase of around 6 percent over the previous year.

Following a difficult period in the early-1990's, both the domestic and contract sectors of the market enjoyed significant growth from around 1995. Although the domestic sector experienced a difficult trading environment in 1998, by the later part of 1999 the domestic market is showing signs of positive growth, driven by a number of factors. These include fashion, home improvement interest stimulated by television programmes, the availability of a wide range of colourful and artistic designs, and generally improving consumer confidence in the economy as a whole, benefiting both new building and refurbishment.

In the contract sector, growth in 1999 has been attributed to a modest recovery in construction activity, a trend towards higher specification/higher value products, and strong growth in the leisure sector, accelerated by lottery funding and the impending millennium 'dead line'.

In general, prospects for the overall market's performance in 1999 look reasonably optimistic, for the reasons mentioned above.

Projected growth for the overall ceramic tiles market 1999-2004 has been forecast at around 5-6 percent, taking into account growth prospects for the UK economy and influences in the various end-use sectors. Views differ as to whether the UK market may ever reach Scandinavian or other European levels of penetration which are very high, but in any event a trend towards higher penetration levels would be positive.

In the contract sector, there are several key areas offering prospects for growth over the next five years, for example:

Durability, low-maintenance, ease of cleaning, water impermeability, fire-retardancy and the inert nature of tiles, are all issues which will collectively benefit ceramic tiles for floor and wall use. Increasing emphasis on health and safety issues by specifiers and end-users is also having a major impact, to the benefit of ceramic tiles which are inherently hygienic.

In the domestic sector, consumer confidence is returning, which should result in an improving environment for home improvement products in the short and medium term. As previously mentioned, interest in home decor, interior design, fashion and home improvement projects has been stimulated by the media, impacting favourably on ceramic tile demand. >From the supply side, the continuing availability of new tile designs, materials and shapes from designers, manufacturers and importers, provides an expanding product range offering for new and refurbishment operations, with these factors tending to underpin domestic growth in the period 2000-2004. Substantial growth in showers and conservatories will also strongly motivate the domestic sector in the short to medium term.

A negative effect is the current high level of sterling which is regarded as damaging to the performance of UK manufacturers in both domestic and overseas markets, and this factor is likely to continue in the short to medium term.

The competition from solid and laminated wood floor-coverings could also have an adverse effect upon ceramic floor tiles in 'non-wet' areas in the short term. However, the general trend to hand floor-coverings may ultimately benefit tiles.

In the field of wall tiles, paints are one of the major competing products, and have recently enjoyed considerable popularity, driven by programmes such as 'Changing Rooms'. It is anticipated that increased applications of ceramic tiles such as the tiling of display and working surfaces will continue to motivate the overall market.

In 1999, the supply structure of the UK market was dominated by importers and by two major local manufacturers, H.R. Johnson and Pilkington's, whilst British Ceramic Tile have recently opened a large factory and are likely to become a major force in the UK market. Other UK manufacturers include Dennis Ruabon, Marlborough Tiles, Hawkins, etc.

The distribution structure for floor and wall tiles is relatively complex, reflecting a mix between contract and domestic sales. In the domestic sector, the DIY multiples continue to lead the refurbishment market whilst in the contract sector distributors and the direct channel predominate. The increasing involvement in tile distribution by leading builders merchants indicates that this channel is likely to increase their level of activity in the medium to long term.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.

INTRODUCTION

7

2.

Summary

8

3.

economic environment

11

3.1

GDP Growth

11

3.2

Interest Rates and Inflation

12

3.3

Unemployment And Consumer Spending

12

3.4

Construction

13

3.4.1

Housing

13

3.4.2

Commercial Construction

13

3.5

Sterling

13

4.

The UK Market for Ceramic tiles

15

4.1

Market Definition

15

4.2

The Ceramic Tile Market in Perspective

15

4.3

Ceramic Tile Market Size and Trends

18

4.3.1

Historical and Current Situation

18

4.3.2

Market Outlook

22

4.3.3

The Ceramic Tiles Market At Constant Prices

25

4.4

International Trade In Ceramic Tiles

26

5.

Product TRENDS

30

5.1

Product Mix

30

5.1.1

Overall Mix

30

5.1.2

Wall Tiles

31

5.1.3

Floor Tiles

32

5.2

Factors Influencing Floor and Wall Tiles

33

5.2.1

Installation and Replacement

33

5.2.2

Hygiene

34

5.2.3

Size

34

5.3

Characteristics of Floor and Wall Tiles Relative to Other Decorating Media

35

5.3.1

Strengths

35

5.3.2

Competing Decoration Media

35

5.4

Application Areas

37

5.4.1

Overall Application Mix

37

5.4.2

Contract Applications

38

5.4.3

Domestic Applications

41

6.

Distribution

42

6.1

Distribution Structure

42

6.2

Major Channels

44

6.3

DIY Multiples

45

6.4

Distributors and Independent Retailers

47

6.4.1

Distributors

47

6.4.2

Independent Retail Stores

49

6.5

Builders Merchants

51

6.6

Others

53

6.7

Trends in Domestic/Retail Ceramic Tiles Distribution

54

6.8

Contract Sector

55

7.

Suppliers

58

7.1

Introduction

58

7.2

Market Shares

58

7.3

Major Suppliers

59

8.

Key Market Influences

63

8.1

UK Economy

63

8.2

Construction

64

8.2.1

Construction - New House Build

64

8.2.2

House-Moving

65

8.2.3

The Commercial and Industrial Construction Market

66

8.3

Population Profile

68

8.4

Personal Disposable Income

69

8.5

Employment/Unemployment

70

8.6

Interest Rates and Inflation

71

8.7

Households

72

8.8

Industrial Sectors

74

8.8.1

Fixed Investment in the Engineering Manufacturing Industry

74

8.8.2

Short Term Trends In The Performance Of The Engineering Manufacturing Industry

75

8.8.3

Medium-Term Trends in Engineering Output

76

8.9

Exchange Rate Fluctuations

79

9.

Future Prospects

80

LIST OF TABLES AND CHARTS

Chart 1

UK CERAMIC TILES MARKET 1995-2004 AT £M MSP

8

Chart 2

UK DOMESTIC DECOR MARKET PRODUCT MIX BY VALUE, 1998

16

Table 3

UK MARKET FOR CONTRACT FLOOR-COVERINGS – 1998 MIX BY TYPE BY VALUE

17

Table 4

THE SIZE OF THE UK MARKET FOR CERAMIC TILES – 1995-1998 (£M MSP)

18

Chart 5

UK HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION OF SHOWERS 1990-1998

20

Chart 6

CONSERVATORY MARKET BY VOLUME 1990-2000 (‘000S)

21

Table 7

THE UK MARKET FORECAST (£M MSP) FOR CERAMIC TILES 1998-2004

23

Chart 8

THE UK CERAMIC TILE MARKET AT CONSTANT 1995 PRICES £M MSP

25

Table 9

UK OVERSEAS TRADE IN GLAZED/UNGLAZED CERAMIC FLAGS & PAVING, HEARTH OR WALL TILES & GLAZED/UNGLAZED MOSAIC CUBES 1995-1999

27

Chart 10

SOURCES OF TILE IMPORTS 1998 percent BY VALUE

28

Chart 11

COUNTRIES FOR TILE EXPORTS 1998

29

Chart 12

UK CERAMIC TILES MARKET - MIX OF WALL & FLOOR APPLICATIONS

30

Chart 13

DOMESTIC & CONTRACT MIX OF THE UK CERAMIC TILES MARKET 1998 BY VALUE

37

Table 14

UK CONTRACT FLOOR-COVERINGS 1998 – MARKET BY TYPE OF APPLICATION

39

Table 15

UK MARKET FOR CONTRACT FLOOR-COVERINGS – 1998 MIX BY TYPE BY VALUE

40

Chart 16

DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS IN THE DOMESTIC/RETAIL SECTOR OF THE CERAMIC TILES MARKET

43

Table 17

DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL SHARES BY VALUE OF THE UK CERAMIC TILES MARKET

44

Chart 18

DIY MULTIPLES MARKET SHARE

45

Table 19

UK DIY MULTIPLES - NUMBER OF OUTLETS

46

Chart 20

MERCHANTS MARKET SHARES

52

Chart 21

DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS IN THE CONTRACT SECTOR OF THE CERAMIC TILES MARKET

56

Table 22

SUPPLIER SHARE BY VALUE OF THE UK CERAMIC TILE MARKET 1998

59

Table 23

NEW HOUSING COMPLETIONS 1990-1998 GREAT BRITAIN ('000)

64

Table 24

NUMBER OF PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS IN ENGLAND AND WALES 1990-1998

65

Table 25

CONTRACTORS OUTPUT - NEW WORK AND RMI NON HOUSING - CURRENT PRICES (£M)

66

Table 26

NEW ORDERS OBTAINED BY CONTRACTORS 1990-1998 CURRENT PRICES (£M)

67

Chart 27

AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE RESIDENT UK POPULATION 1997 (‘000)

68

Chart 28

PDI & SAVINGS RATIO

69

Chart 29

NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN EMPLOYMENT GB - JUNE 1981-98 (MILLIONS)

70

Chart 30

BASE RATES AND INFLATION (RPI) FROM 1990-2000

71

Table 31

STOCK OF DWELLINGS GREAT BRITAIN – 1983-1998

72

Table 32

AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE FOR GREAT BRITAIN 1971-1996

73

Table 33

ENGINEERING SALES OUTPUT CHANGES

75

Table 34

COMPARISON OF ENGINEERING SECTOR OUTPUT BY SIC CODE (1990=100) 1996-2000

76

Table 35

COMPARISON OF ENGINEERING SECTOR OUTPUT BY SIC CODE 1996-2000 (1990=100)

78

Table 36

EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 1994-1998 - DM, DOLLARS, AND THE ECU TO THE POUND STERLING, SPOT RATES

79

Text © 2000 AMA Research

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Last updated by Jacob van Eldik 26th February 2000