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AM20010 AMA UPHOLSTERED FURNITURE & BEDS MARKET JANUARY 2000

This report covers:

Companies covered include:

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KEY AREAS

OVERALL UPHOLSTERY & BEDS MARKET

UPHOLSTERED FURNITURE

BEDS & MATTRESSES

DISTRIBUTION / SUPPLIERS PER MARKET

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The upholstered furniture and beds market is estimated to be worth around £1.54bn msp at current prices in 1999. As both markets are mature, overall annual growth rates have been, and are forecast to continue to be, modest.

Underlying annual growth rates are around 4 percent, although a slightly higher figure of 5 percent in 1997 was due to the impact of building society windfalls. By the autumn of 1998, the majority of these had been spent, after which furniture sales declined sharply. However, the beds sector managed to withstand the overall downturn in demand, which was exacerbated by depressed consumer confidence against the background of the threat of recession.

In early 2000, the outlook is generally more optimistic, owing largely to a recovery in the housing market during 1999, with the number of house moves and average house prices having risen by 6 percent and 11 percent respectively. Underlying these improvements was a resurgence in consumer confidence, with the threat of a major world recession having been largely dispelled.

In 1999 the Upholstered Furniture Market was worth an estimated £1.03bn MSP, with the domestic market accounting for around 90 percent. The remaining 10 percent is mainly split between hotels and the healthcare sector.

With upholstery generally seen as a discretionary purchase, retail sales growth during 1998 declined substantially, with sales of 3 piece suites affected more than other products. The decline in the growth rate for 3-piece suites has primarily been to a combination of several factors including the trend towards single person households, smaller living rooms in new housing and changing patterns in consumer tastes.

The latter has been marked by the trend among the under 40s away from the traditional/formal style towards the modern/contemporary and informal, thereby generating growth in demand for alternative combinations of sofas/sofabeds and armchairs.

In spite of the declining market share for 3 piece suites, they account for around 53 percent of the market by value. In the longer term, demand is expected to be sustained by the increasing numbers of older age groups who are typically traditional in tastes. Separate armchairs and sofas account for approximately 17 percent of the market, with demand having grown significantly at the expense of 3 piece suites. In particular, growth in demand for leather upholstery has far exceeded overall growth for the overall upholstery sector, resulting from lower raw materials prices together with larger product options. Leather is widely used for recliners, which constitute the fastest growing sub-sector, accounting for around 14 percent of the market by value. Key factors behind increasing demand levels include positive changes in consumer perceptions, a fall in average prices and a widening of the target market to include younger consumers as well as the core over 50s age group. After recliners, the other main area of growth is likely to be for sofabeds, which account for around 9 percent of the upholstery market. The key drivers behind demand are the trends towards smaller living rooms, single households and casual furnishing.

Although the current trend towards modern/contemporary and casual is pronounced, there still remains a strong underlying demand for ‘traditional’ styles. This sector has benefited from a general trend away towards less price-sensitive middle-upper market products. Cane and rattan is beginning to move upmarket after experiencing some problems in terms of quality.

Import penetration has risen from around 17 percent to 21 percent of the market, due to a 23 percent increase between 1996 and 1998 to £213m. Imports are sourced mainly from within the EC including Italy, Belgium, Luxembourg, Sweden and France. Exports are estimated to be worth 9 percent of UK production of upholstered furniture, but have declined by 16 percent to around £65m.

Major suppliers of upholstery are Hillsdown Holding’s subsidiaries, Christie Tyler and Walker & Homer, which dominate the market with a combined share of 35 percent. Other major suppliers include Wade Furniture Group, Cornwell Parker, Tetrad, Ian Walker and Frayling with a combined share of around 20 percent.

The beds market has outperformed the overall furniture market, having grown by around 5-7 percent a year to an estimated £509m msp in 1999. In addition to underlying macro-economic factors, the main reason for the bed industry’s strength is that consumers typically regard beds as essential and not discretionary purchases.

The market is also benefiting from consumers’ trading-up and purchasing better quality beds, while promotional work carried out by the Sleep Council is reported as having had some success in persuading consumers to replace their beds more frequently. Other growth contributors include increased demand in certain key non-domestic markets, e.g. budget lodges and private long-term care homes.

Imports and exports of bed bases and mattresses are experiencing underlying growth, but continue to be a very minor part of the UK beds market.

In terms of product mix, divans account for around 55 percent of the market by value, but market share has slowly been eroded by strong growth in demand for bedsteads, particular metal bedsteads, which account for 19 percent of the market in terms of both value and volume. By value, however, sales growth for divans remains stable owing to a general trading up among consumers towards higher value products such as adjustable beds and king size beds. As an increasingly greater proportion of divans now have storage drawers in the base, there is still likely to be strong demand in modern housing, where there are typically no fitted bedroom cupboards.

Since 1996, there has been a marked trend away from single to double beds, although this is expected to be reversed, as the number of single person households increases over the next decade.

By value, mattresses account for around 14 percent of the market. Steady growth in the market has been underpinned by growth in the bedstead sector and in replacements for divan bases. Spring interiors continue to dominate, accounting for 84 percent of the market, although rubber/latex mattresses are growing their share due to a combination of health factors and the growth in bedsteads.

The beds sector is more concentrated in terms of suppliers than the upholstered furniture market with major suppliers including Silentnight 27 percent, Airsprung 14 percent, the French-owned Cauval Industries 11 percent (combined sales for the three UK subsidiaries Sleepeezee, Nestledown and Cumfilux), Relyon 9 percent, and Slumberland and Horatio Myer with 6 percent each.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.

introduction

6

2.

Summary

7

3.

Economic environment

11

3.1

GDP

11

3.2

Interest Rates and Inflation

11

3.3

Unemployment

12

3.4

Retail Spending

12

4.

Upholstered furniture and beds

13

4.1

Market Overview

13

4.2

Consumer Confidence And Spending

15

4.3

Housing Completions

16

4.4

Housing Transactions

16

4.5

Higher Levels Of Owner-Occupation

17

4.6

Household Demographics

18

4.7

Interest-Free Credit

20

4.8

Increasing Power Of The Retail Sector

20

4.9

Trading Up Among Consumers

21

4.10

Influence Of The Media, Fashion Trend And Advertising

21

4.11

Growing Demand In Key Commercial End-User Sectors

22

5.

upholstered furniture

23

5.1

Definition

23

5.2

Market Size

23

5.2.1

Overview

23

5.2.2

Imports and Exports

27

5.3

Product Mix

30

5.3.1

By Type

30

5.3.2

Materials

37

5.4

Price Mix

42

5.5

End User Mix

44

5.6

Suppliers

46

5.6.1

Market Structure

46

5.6.2

Market Shares

46

5.6.3

Companies

48

6.

beds & mattresses

60

6.1

Definition

60

6.2

Market Size

60

6.3

Imports & Exports

65

6.4

Product Mix

67

6.4.1

By Product Type

67

6.5

Suppliers

80

6.5.1

Supplier Market Shares

80

6.5.2

Companies

81

7.

distribution

90

7.1

Structure

90

7.2

Definitions

90

7.3

Shares

91

7.4

Furniture Independents

92

7.5

Multiples

93

7.5.1

Introduction

93

7.6

Department stores

99

7.7

Variety Stores

100

7.8

Co-operatives

101

7.9

Mail Order

101

8.

KEY MARKET INFLUENCES

104

8.1

The Housing Market

104

8.1.1

Newbuild

104

8.1.2

House-Moving Levels

106

8.1.3

General

107

9.

future prospects

109

TABLES & CHARTS

Table 1

The UK Upholstered Furniture & Beds Market 1994-2002 (£m MSP)

7

Table 2

The UK Upholstered Furniture & Beds Market 1994-2002 (£m MSP)

13

Table 3

Annual Household Expenditure – At £ Million RSP 1995/96 – 1997/98

15

Table 4

UK Households – percent By Type Of Tenure 1990, 1994 And 1998

17

Table 5

Size Of Households - percent Of Total 1990, 1994 And 1998

18

Table 6

UK Households - Average Number Of Rooms Per Household By percent Of Dwellings 1990 & 1996

19

Table 7

The UK Upholstered Furniture Market 1994-2002 (£m MSP)

24

Table 8

Imports of Upholstered Furniture 1994, 1996 and 1998 (£000)

28

Table 9

Exports of Upholstered Furniture 1994, 1996 and 1998 (£000)

30

Chart 10

UK Upholstered Furniture Market – Product Mix by Type by Value 1999

31

Chart 11

UK Upholstery Market – Mix by Cover Type by Value 1999

37

Chart 12

UK Upholstery Market – Price Mix for Suites (£/suite - 1999)

43

Chart 13

UK Upholstered Furniture Market by End-User by Value 1999

44

Table 14

Market Shares - UK Upholstered Furniture Market 1999

47

Table 15

The UK Beds & Mattresses Market 1994-2002 by Value

61

Table 16

Imports Of Divans, Bedsteads & Mattresses 1994, 1996 And 1998 (£000)

65

Table 17

Exports of Divans, Bedsteads & Mattresses 1994, 1996 and 1998 (£000)

66

Chart 18

UK Beds/Mattresses Market – Product Mix by Type by Value 1999

67

Table 19

Product Mix – Divans & Bedsteads - 1999

68

Chart 20

UK Mattress Market – Mix by Size by Volume 1999

74

Chart 21

Mix of Mattresses by Support by Volume 1999

76

Table 22

UK Bed Manufacturers’ Market Shares - By Value 1999

81

Table 23

Distribution of Upholstered Furniture and Beds 1999 by Value

91

Table 24

Housing Completion 1993-2003 Great Britain ('000)

104

Table 25

Housing Starts 1993-2003 Great Britain (‘000)

105

Table 26

Number of Property Transactions in England and Wales 1990-1999

106

Chart 27

Interest Rates and Inflation (RPI) from 1990-2003

107

Chart 28

PDI & Savings Ratio

108

Text © 2000 AMA Research

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