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Table of Contents

Executive Summary

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ABSTRACT: This book analyzes the economic and demographic forces impacting the demand for household furniture in America. The study is finely segregated by product categories and geographical regions. Forecasts are provided to 2010. The author of the book comes to some interesting and unexpected conclusions which need to be taken into account to gain a thorough appreciation of the present and future course of the American furniture demand.

TABLE OF CONTENTS AND EXHIBITS

TABLE OF CONTENTS (Condensed)

TABLE OF EXHIBITS

• The percentage share of after-tax average household incomes allocated to saving and spending on major goods and services categories, 1967 to 1999.
• The percentage share of after-tax average household incomes allocated to household furniture from 1967 to 1999.
• The percentage share of after-tax average household incomes allocated to household furniture in constant 1996 dollars from 1967 to 1999.
• Estimated average household furniture expenditures (including taxes) by individual item in 1999.
• Average consumer spending on household furniture by income group, 1999.
• Number of households, average income, average spending on household furniture and other demographic characteristics by age of household maintainer in 1999.
• Number of households and average spending per household on household furniture by type of tenure in 1999.
• Estimated total United States market for household furniture at retail prices including taxes by product category in 1999.
• United States market for household furniture at retail prices by component in 1999.
• After-tax personal income in billions of constant 1996 dollars from 1967 to 1999.
• United States market for household furniture in billions of dollars from 1967 to 1999 and its percentage change from year to year.
• United States market for household furniture in billions of constant 1996 dollars from 1967 to 1999 and its percentage change from year to year.
• United States market for household furniture by state in 1999.
• Estimated United States market for household furniture by metropolitan statistical area in 1999.
• Consumer spending on household furniture from 1984 to 2010 in constant 1996 dollars and percent change from year to year.
• Consumer spending on household furniture by state in millions of constant 1996 dollars from 2000 to 2010.
• Consumer spending on household furniture by the most populated metropolitan statistical areas in millions of constant 1996 dollars from 2000 to 2010.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This book analyzes the economic and demographic forces impacting the demand for household furniture in the United States. The study is finely segregated by product categories and geographical regions. The author of the book comes to some interesting and unexpected conclusions which need to be taken into account to gain a thorough appreciation of the present and future course of the American furniture demand. Forecasts are provided to 2010.

As a result of the faster growth in the population among those over 40 years of age, almost no growth among those under 40 and stabilized rates of coupling and uncoupling across the age spectrum, we expect the number of households in the United States to grow over the next decade by close to 11 percent (or by about 1.0 percent per year), a pace slightly faster than the 8.4 percent pace expected for the total population as a whole. We also expect real disposable income per household will increase by about 11 percent (or by about 1 percent per year) over that period. Thus we predict total real disposable income will grow by just over 22 percent between 2000 and 2010.

However, we anticipate that real household furniture spending will grow by just over 25 percent over the same period from $63.7 billion in 2000 to $80.0 billion in constant 1996 dollars in 2010.

On the basis of these assumptions we make the following prediction for the American household furniture consumption:

• following very large real gains of 5.6 percent in 1998 and 7.1 percent in 1999 we anticipate a slowdown to 5.2 percent in 2000 and to just 3.6 percent in 2001 reflecting a pause for breath from the exceptionally long expansion underway since the early 1990s
• we expect furniture spending growth to continue throughout the projection horizon (2000 - 2010), slowing from an annual rate averaging around 3 percent per year from 2000 to 2004 to a rate of just over 2 percent per year by 2010 reflecting the pace of household growth and real household incomes over that period
• our forecast beyond 2000 reflects the underlying trend projection for real furniture spending; it can be expected that the actual path of spending will rise above the trend level at certain times and fall below it at other times depending on the cyclical stage of the economy; as it is impossible as of 2001 to project the cycle beyond 2002 or so the underlying trend values are provided instead

The points listed below portray our forecast of furniture consumption on a state by state basis.

• the highest growth rates in household furniture spending will occur in Nevada (up a projected 45.9 percent), Utah (41.7 percent), Arizona (39.6 percent), Idaho (36.4 percent), Colorado (34.1 percent) and Washington (32.6 percent), all reflecting stronger than average household growth and household income growth; these states are all expected to be major attractors for the migrating population of the United States
• the lowest growth rates in household furniture spending are projected for the District of Columbia (10.1 percent), Connecticut (16.0 percent), and New York (16.3 percent); these low rates reflect the effects of federal cutbacks in Washington and of net out migration from the New York and Connecticut area
• the California household furniture market, the largest in the U.S. at this time, will remain number one in ten years' time

AKTRIN is a report writing and international consulting firm fully dedicated to the furniture industry. The company has been in existence since 1985 and maintains offices in the United States and Canada. Representatives and affiliates are located throughout the world.

Text © 2001 AKTRIN

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